Mafia TBT Mafia III: The Murder Before Christmas [Game Over/Town Win]

[BellGreen]

Is it a good idea to roleclaim to Karla? I trust her, but the last game may repeat...

It doesn't seem like Karla is lying this time around. Honestly HE HE (Karla is a he) is the first person i would turn to.

 

[Blu Rose]

Okay, fine. If the Town wants me dead, I'll go down in a blaze of glory, called a modkilling. Would everyone be happy with that (besides me)?

 

[KarlaKGB]

Is it a good idea to roleclaim to Karla? I trust her, but the last game may repeat...

Roleclaim to me only if you think the necessity outweighs the risk. I don't know what kind of situation you're in that you need to claim. If you're Assassin, there's no harm in claiming to me, as both Town and Mafia me would have reason to work with you.

 

[kittenrobotarmy]

We lost three Townies! This is a loss, guys. The less Townies there are, the greater the chance blue roles will die.

We mustn't lynch carelessly. I'm not saying we did the first day with no evidence, but we need solid proof for lynches. Being a distraction is not evidence. They're a distraction for the Mafia too. We should ask ourselves "Who's attempting to stay out of the light and barely post? Who voted without reason?" Take time to look at each person's post record. If they're actively posting anywhere but here, that's not a good sign.

 

[KarlaKGB]

I would just like to remind people of my extensive post against VillageDweller

http://www.belltreeforums.com/showt...tmas-(DAY-2)&p=2065391&viewfull=1#post2065391

http://www.belltreeforums.com/showt...tmas-(DAY-2)&p=2065585&viewfull=1#post2065585

http://www.belltreeforums.com/showt...tmas-(DAY-2)&p=2065686&viewfull=1#post2065686

- - - Post Merge - - -

Especially Miss Kippla.

 

[Dolby]

I would also like to ask for a defense from Kippla(page 91 i think)

 

[BellGreen]

@Kippla
Well? What do you think of this:

KIPPLA:You must believe and trust the candidate you want if you're voting. Otherwise, you couldn't vote since you don't trust any of them.

KARLA: This isn't really relevant for this case as this post was made after VD's campaign post, but this is awful logic. Kippla is comparing this to a real-world election. Let's be realistic here, you shouldn't fully believe and trust every candidate in a real election anyway. People still vote though. More importantly, in real elections, you don't have to vote. In TBT Mafia, you do. This logic is completely wrong.

You probably skimmed through that long post. But still, I wanted to bring it up. What do you think of your logic? Do you agree with Karla now?

 

[VillageDweller]

Just a quick post to let everyone know that I will be semi away for the next 2 days. I will still try to find a way to post if I can though. I only found out about this yesterday, really sorry everyone, but I will still endeavour to play!

 

[Trent the Paladin]

Will Mafia KP for the night be publicly announced before night starts, and the first Night it was just a mistake that it wasn't?

If you mean will I state the number of KP when I ask for actions to be sent in to me, I can do that from now on. In the Night 1 post I did make several mistakes, so if I missed out on posting that I will from now on (it hadn't been pointed out to me either so I thought nothing of it).

 

[Beary]

It doesn't seem like Karla is lying this time around. Honestly HE HE (Karla is a he) is the first person i would turn to.

Sorry! XD Mistype

- - - Post Merge - - -

Roleclaim to me only if you think the necessity outweighs the risk. I don't know what kind of situation you're in that you need to claim. If you're Assassin, there's no harm in claiming to me, as both Town and Mafia me would have reason to work with you.

I'm not an assassin. Or mafia.

 

[kittenrobotarmy]

@BBG: Yes, I do. I usually post without thinking it all the way, leaving holes. That's why I've been quiet lately, in an attempt to let the game continue without my half-baked thinking.

Also, I just want to ask. What are the chances you are Town 3 games in a row? Just curious. Vig, Medic, Townie? Not sure how high the chance of that is.

 

[Beary]

Congrats on 100 pages! ^_^
Anyways, my suspicions are-

Blu Rose
Trundle (Slightly, not really)

 

[Superpenguin]

I was incredibly suspicious of him at this point already, so I really pushed Trundle (whom I felt much stronger townie vibes from) to campaign harder. This worked, and as soon as I saw that we would be elected, I discussed a plan with Trundle to trap VD. As soon as VD lost the election, I PM'd him offering him incarceration, on the basis that he had died early the previous two games, and he (like myself) had expressed being protected from hits as a reason for running. What I really wanted to do was to see what would happen to KP that night, as incarcerating a Mafia member would have dropped KP to 3.
This was my PM exchange with him:

OK, let's look at what this tells us. He is not afraid of dying and/or he has an ability he really wants to use. If he's innocent and not afraid of dying, this goes against him wanting to be elected for the protection. Maybe he has an ability he really needs to use, like Detective. Ok, that's one explaination. If he's a Medic, he can protect himself, but he could also ask for incarceration too. Sheriff has three incarcerations to use, that's actually quite a lot. It would be erroneously seen as a waste to incarcerate him. Roles like Vig, Hatter, Bus Driver don't NEED to be doing something on Night 1, no reason for him to refuse protection.
Oh, and what's another explanation for not being afraid of dying? He's scum.

He says he's a tad selfish and may want protection on the second night. Wait, he's a tad selfish? Well that weakens the possibility that he's a medic. Otherwise he'd have just taken the incarceration and have been completely safe, rather than risk being doublestacked and killed. Now this emphasis on the second night. Smells of Veteran to me. Still, if he's selfish, why not just take protection. Again it could be because he is, or knows another medic, and they can't protect him a second night in a row. If it's the latter case, surely he should take my protection, and tell that medic to protect someone else? I know I'm pressuring him and coming across as fishing for roles, hence why he could be so defensive, but if I'm offering to save him, that should give him an indication that I'm genuine. And if I didn't actually incarcerate him that night, he could easily call me out for it. In fact at this stage, I'm already certain he's a blue, and would have just quietly killed him if I was Mafia.

Look at the last two PMs from him. Changing the subject onto the lynch. Doesn't really say anything insightful. Points at Blu Rose, who we all know is a bad lynch at this stage. I push him a bit, and he points towards River, Farobi and Gandalf. I'm pretty certain River is innocent, Farobi I'm leaning towards innocent at this stage, and we know Gandalf is Townie (RIP). But this in itself doesn't tell us anything either.

---

Now let's look at his posting behaviour. One question is on my mind. Where has he been since Day 1 and his campaign post? He made campaign, got some votes, but didn't even push that hard afterwards. Completely opposite vibes from what he was giving with his posts at the start and his campaign post. Could it be he's seen that he's losing the election, and is just content to quietly let his bid die, lest he draw more attention to himself?

He says in his campaign post that he is good at coming up with arguments against people if he is allowed the time. He's certainly been allowed the time. He's definitely been active on the forums and in general - I've seen him chatting on IRC. Is he bitter about losing the election? Unlikely. So why isn't he contributing to town efforts, especially if he is at high risk of dying on the first night? For the answer, we should probably look once again at his campaign post:

This again ties in with why he only came in with his campaign halfway through Day 1. He had evidently been planning his campaign in the scum chat, waiting for the right moment to come in. Potentially waiting for his fellow scum to create a suitable opening for him to waltz in. Of course he also adds that people could just but lurking. Implying that is bad. So why is he doing it?

Now, a look at his posts in previous games.
TBT Mafia I as a Townie
Are you seeing the kind of posting he's making? Straight up pointing fingers. They may not be particularly constructive posts, but then there were very few in that game anyway. But look at this recklessness, this impulsiveness. All key Townie characteristics.

TBT Mafia II as a Paramedic
That outspoken attitude we saw in Game 1 has been toned down significantly. Yes, he calls out Kayla, but drops it soon after. We don't see many more accusatory posts. We see him trying to help without trying to stick his neck out. Suggesting other election candidates, hinting at what blue roles should do. He still maintains his cheery "childish" way of posting - all those <3's, smileys all over the place. And his posting still bears the hallmarks of impulsive - little formatting, really not making an effort to make his post easy to read, giving that sense of rambling thoughts.

VillageDweller this game
Look at his posts so far. All pretty long. Very few smileys. Very well written. Looks like he's spent a good amount of time making sure he's got things right. This post in particular stands out to me as a contrast of style:

Now, what he originally posted was a reply to me/Kippla. No smileys, perfect grammar. A rather planned post. But as soon as he's posted, he hurriedly needs to add something on. And here we see the sudden breakdown in grammar. A clearly rushed post that looks more like the type of stuff he would write in Games I and II. The funny thing is, his original post wasn't that long anyway - three sentences. Just look at the difference between when he has all the time to work on his post, and when he's pushed to make a quick response, even when they are nearly the same length! So why in this game is he suddenly taking so much more care of how he writes? Nobody called him in previous games over it. The only explanation I can think of is, he's overcompensating.

---

Oh, and he just roleclaimed to me as Townie:

Well, go back and read my possible explanations for him not accepting my offer of incarceration. I think this just destroyed most of them. Leaving one - he is Mafia scum who did not want to be incarcerated so that KP would not drop.

##Vote: VillageDweller

Wait, I am confused on this. You don't even need VD's permission to incarcerate him, so why didn't you just do it without asking?
You could've went about finding out info about him more conspicuous this way and seen if/how Mafia KP got affected. Had anything happen as a result of the incarceration, it would be unmistakable and inarguable evidence that would then be put on VD.

Did you ever actually really consider incarcerating him?

 

[kittenrobotarmy]

Why in particular do you suspect Trundle? Even if you slightly suspect someone, there's always a reason why.

 

[Superpenguin]

Dang, did not realize I quote that much. O_O

 

[KarlaKGB]

Just a quick post to let everyone know that I will be semi away for the next 2 days. I will still try to find a way to post if I can though. I only found out about this yesterday, really sorry everyone, but I will still endeavour to play!

So you had nothing to say in the 42 hours before I made my accusation, and now you're going to be away for the next two days. And you ran as Mayor?

 

[Beary]

Why in particular do you suspect Trundle? Even if you slightly suspect someone, there's always a reason why.

He hasn't been posting very much, and what he has has just been rephrasing what other people say.
He just rubs me the wrong way '~'

 

[EpicGamer12]

Congrats on 100 pages! ^_^
Anyways, my suspicions are-

Blu Rose
Trundle (Slightly, not really)

beary, I'm glad you're trying to contribute, but you need to give your reasons. Why do you suspect Blu Rose? Why do you suspect me? Why don't you suspect VillageDweller?

- - - Post Merge - - -

He hasn't been posting very much, and what he has has just been rephrasing what other people say.
He just rubs me the wrong way '~'

Hahaha umm... Can you give me one example?

 

[KarlaKGB]

Wait, I am confused on this. You don't even need VD's permission to incarcerate him, so why didn't you just do it without asking?
You could've went about finding out info about him more conspicuous this way and seen if/how Mafia KP got affected. Had anything happen as a result of the incarceration, it would be unmistakable and inarguable evidence that would then be put on VD.

Did you ever actually really consider incarcerating him?

If I went ahead and incarcerated him, I would have to explain why. If I gave the real reason, that would alert Mafia who could pull their wifom crap. If I gave the false reason, VD could then call me out for not following his instructions. Now, I'm acting against players without their permission, and that looks very bad on me.

I would have incarcerated him if he agreed to it.

 

[Justin]

We now have under 24 hours until the lynch and a total of 3 votes have been cast as I write this post. Clearly we need to get the ball rolling a bit here or we're going to end up with a repeat of yesterday where the lynch is decided at the last moment.

I am backing Karla's lynch of VillageDweller. The incarceration ordeal is highly suspicious, and his defense for it was very weak IMO. I am repeating Karla to some degree here, but to remind everyone... There is literally no reason not to take an incarceration offer at this stage of the game if you are Townie with no abilities. Here's the thing though: he didn't just not take the offer, he wanted it on Night 2 for some reason instead. As Karla has said before, this heavily implies that there is either some action he needs to use tonight, or he is Veteran. Problem is... he's now claimed since that he is Townie, therefore invalidating any of these considerations. So he's obviously lying here to some degree. Could be a town lie, or a scum lie though. So best case scenario here: we catch a mafia. Worse case scenario: we lynch a lying town member.

Oh and the kicker for VD's lynch is that some other potential mafia members have already left a good papertrail for themselves if VD does turn out scum. We will have plenty of leads tomorrow.