I was incredibly suspicious of him at this point already, so I really pushed Trundle (whom I felt much stronger townie vibes from) to campaign harder. This worked, and as soon as I saw that we would be elected, I discussed a plan with Trundle to trap VD. As soon as VD lost the election, I PM'd him offering him incarceration, on the basis that he had died early the previous two games, and he (like myself) had expressed being protected from hits as a reason for running. What I really wanted to do was to see what would happen to KP that night, as incarcerating a Mafia member would have dropped KP to 3.
This was my PM exchange with him:
OK, let's look at what this tells us. He is not afraid of dying and/or he has an ability he really wants to use. If he's innocent and not afraid of dying, this goes against him wanting to be elected for the protection. Maybe he has an ability he really needs to use, like Detective. Ok, that's one explaination. If he's a Medic, he can protect himself, but he could also ask for incarceration too. Sheriff has three incarcerations to use, that's actually quite a lot. It would be erroneously seen as a waste to incarcerate him. Roles like Vig, Hatter, Bus Driver don't NEED to be doing something on Night 1, no reason for him to refuse protection.
Oh, and what's another explanation for not being afraid of dying? He's scum.
He says he's a tad selfish and may want protection on the second night. Wait, he's a tad selfish? Well that weakens the possibility that he's a medic. Otherwise he'd have just taken the incarceration and have been completely safe, rather than risk being doublestacked and killed. Now this emphasis on the second night. Smells of Veteran to me. Still, if he's selfish, why not just take protection. Again it could be because he is, or knows another medic, and they can't protect him a second night in a row. If it's the latter case, surely he should take my protection, and tell that medic to protect someone else? I know I'm pressuring him and coming across as fishing for roles, hence why he could be so defensive, but if I'm offering to save him, that should give him an indication that I'm genuine. And if I didn't actually incarcerate him that night, he could easily call me out for it. In fact at this stage, I'm already certain he's a blue, and would have just quietly killed him if I was Mafia.
Look at the last two PMs from him. Changing the subject onto the lynch. Doesn't really say anything insightful. Points at Blu Rose, who we all know is a bad lynch at this stage. I push him a bit, and he points towards River, Farobi and Gandalf. I'm pretty certain River is innocent, Farobi I'm leaning towards innocent at this stage, and we know Gandalf is Townie (RIP). But this in itself doesn't tell us anything either.
Now let's look at his posting behaviour. One question is on my mind. Where has he been since Day 1 and his campaign post? He made campaign, got some votes, but didn't even push that hard afterwards. Completely opposite vibes from what he was giving with his posts at the start and his campaign post. Could it be he's seen that he's losing the election, and is just content to quietly let his bid die, lest he draw more attention to himself?
He says in his campaign post that he is good at coming up with arguments against people if he is allowed the time. He's certainly been allowed the time. He's definitely been active on the forums and in general - I've seen him chatting on IRC. Is he bitter about losing the election? Unlikely. So why isn't he contributing to town efforts, especially if he is at high risk of dying on the first night? For the answer, we should probably look once again at his campaign post:
This again ties in with why he only came in with his campaign halfway through Day 1. He had evidently been planning his campaign in the scum chat, waiting for the right moment to come in. Potentially waiting for his fellow scum to create a suitable opening for him to waltz in. Of course he also adds that people could just but lurking. Implying that is bad. So why is he doing it?
Now, a look at his posts in previous games.
TBT Mafia I as a Townie
Are you seeing the kind of posting he's making? Straight up pointing fingers. They may not be particularly constructive posts, but then there were very few in that game anyway. But look at this recklessness, this impulsiveness. All key Townie characteristics.
TBT Mafia II as a Paramedic
That outspoken attitude we saw in Game 1 has been toned down significantly. Yes, he calls out Kayla, but drops it soon after. We don't see many more accusatory posts. We see him trying to help without trying to stick his neck out. Suggesting other election candidates, hinting at what blue roles should do. He still maintains his cheery "childish" way of posting - all those <3's, smileys all over the place. And his posting still bears the hallmarks of impulsive - little formatting, really not making an effort to make his post easy to read, giving that sense of rambling thoughts.
VillageDweller this game
Look at his posts so far. All pretty long. Very few smileys. Very well written. Looks like he's spent a good amount of time making sure he's got things right. This post in particular stands out to me as a contrast of style:
Now, what he originally posted was a reply to me/Kippla. No smileys, perfect grammar. A rather planned post. But as soon as he's posted, he hurriedly needs to add something on. And here we see the sudden breakdown in grammar. A clearly rushed post that looks more like the type of stuff he would write in Games I and II. The funny thing is, his original post wasn't that long anyway - three sentences. Just look at the difference between when he has all the time to work on his post, and when he's pushed to make a quick response, even when they are nearly the same length! So why in this game is he suddenly taking so much more care of how he writes? Nobody called him in previous games over it. The only explanation I can think of is, he's overcompensating.
Oh, and he just roleclaimed to me as Townie:
Well, go back and read my possible explanations for him not accepting my offer of incarceration. I think this just destroyed most of them. Leaving one - he is Mafia scum who did not want to be incarcerated so that KP would not drop.
##Vote: VillageDweller
