Mafia TBT Mafia IV: Red Revolution [Game Over/Mafia Win]

[BlueLeaf]

Two Townies, luckily no blues.

As for the lynch candidates, who did Kuma, the deceased, suspect? She suspected LaurinaMN. And may I bring up this quote:

Laurina, I see no reason why the Mafia would not try to kill you tonight. You are the only other strong player here that analyzes posts. You are a threat to the Mafia as a Town role. If you are a Town role, of course. Whether I die from a Mafia kill or from Town lynching me, I will die as Town. Which means suspicions will fall back on you Laurina. You are accusing me of Mafia? That's fine, have me lynched tomorrow and your fate will be sealed as Mafia.

Technically, Kuma didn't get lynched, but she still died. Laurina should be a candidate for the day's lynch.

(KUMA YOU SHOULD BE ASHAMED EDITING STUFF OUT)

 

[Blu Rose]

BlueLeaf, either you or Tom are lying...

Unless, of course, Karla just wanted to screw us all up this game.
I don't think that's really true, though...

I think Laurina is Town, though.
Even though she built the big case against Kuma, he was killed last night, and died a Townie.
I think this was an attempt to frame Laurina, as no Mafioso would be stupid enough to kill a person in the negative spotlight, after they accused them.

But, then again, we could have a bluff on our hands...
I'll sum up this post with this:

Tom
FireNinja1
Dolby

I'll do an iLoveYou:

Hello <3

 

[Dolby]

Although I have been trying to prove that Tom is mafia, I think that it is a to big of a risk to lynch him, that leaves me and fireninja. Fireninja full on encouraged the Mary lynch and has been inactive most of the game where as I have been active for most of the game. Take your pick on who to vote for.

 

[Laurina]

RIP, Kuma & Hikari.
Interesting two townies. Not quite what I expected.
And of course make me a lynch canidate. I was the only one Kuma expected. It's pretty obvious that her death will fall onto me and only me. Nobody else thought of that did they? I also want to make it clear that I never accused Kuma of being Mafia.
Refer back to my post:
http://www.belltreeforums.com/showt...d-Revolution&p=2189625&viewfull=1#post2189625
This was me calling out that Kuma was just pointing fingers at people thoughout the game showing no evidence with ever claim she made. All I was doing was showing how easily I could turn things around on her if she didn't back up what she said and it came off as me attacking her. I wasn't. Hence the:

Make an actual case against me, and I'll give you a real defense.

So we have BlueLeaf and Tom who have come out to say they are both doctors. We have Gallows claiming Veteran. And we have Kuma saying there is a detective who did in fact come out to her. Yet we see Kuma's and Hikari's death instead. I mean really, Hikari? Inactive, noncontributing, and only states the obvious. So what exactly is the Mafia trying to accomplish here? My lynch is the most obvious. Go ahead and put your vote for me. I hope everyone doesn't jump too quickly onto me. I'm hoping to do some backtracking and find some decent evidence, and hopefully find scum among it.

 

[Blu Rose]

I'll make a case against my three people tomorrow, as I'll be on a computer by then...

 

[Hikari]

Wait... why did the mafia waste a kill on me?

Oh well, at least they wasted kills on two greens.

And Kuma, yes I am a boy.

Anyways, best wishes Town! I hope you win!

 

[Trent the Paladin]

Two Townies, luckily no blues.

As for the lynch candidates, who did Kuma, the deceased, suspect? She suspected LaurinaMN. And may I bring up this quote:



Technically, Kuma didn't get lynched, but she still died. Laurina should be a candidate for the day's lynch.

(KUMA YOU SHOULD BE ASHAMED EDITING STUFF OUT)

It's probably better for her to have edited out what she said, because if what she said was true then we need to work closely to ensure that person survives.

The death of two townies instead of two possible doctors is mind blowing, I mean the mafia was essentially handed the roles on a golden platter and then choose to completely ignore them. Did they think it a trap we concocted or do they merely want to watch us systematically destroy each other? Let's not give them that satisfaction, we ought to all be working together instead of picking sides here.

Blu Rose pointed out Fireninja1 is actually still alive, something I'd pretty much forgotten about (okay white lie, someone pointed it out on IRC) and has lain low pretty much since the Mary lynch. Did he consider that his public contribution to his fellow Mafioso? Looking at his voting record, he stopped Day 2. He didn't vote for Gandalf nor did he vote for ITookYourWaffles (which I really wish I didn't), possibly to throw anyone off who had been watching him closely? We may want to consider him for sure.

LaurinaMN is still an option, but considering she was shot Night 3 I'm really thinking about overlooking it. After all, what Mafioso shoots themself?

 

[BellGreen]

RIP Kuma and Hikari

I agree with the fact that we should focus on FireNinja more, his voting has pretty much failed us.

 

[Dolby]

Ok,after reading through the thread I am convinced that Tom is mafia. Why you ask? Let's look at the statistics

Tom starts out with a 100% chance of innocence, minus three out of ten(number of mafia to all players) you get 70% chance of innocence. Divided by two due to both him and Blueleaf claiming doctor and the assumption that one is lying you get 35%.Divided by five for the chance that waffles was a random roleblock considering that waffles implied that he directly told you that he was blue representing the 20% chance that was random you get a 7% chance of innocence. Only 7%!!!! A 93% chance that he is scum! Tom is probably a smart mafia and would withhold a kill so that he could claim that laurina is town. I personally feel that the Gandalf lynch was intentional so that he could gain the town's trust.

Call this horrid logic if you want but I feel like it is the best case that the town has at the moment. I know that earlier I said that we should hold off the Tom lynch but I don't feel like that's the best way to go now.

 

[Prof Gallows]

Ok,after reading through the thread I am convinced that Tom is mafia. Why you ask? Let's look at the statistics

Tom starts out with a 100% chance of innocence, minus three out of ten(number of mafia to all players) you get 70% chance of innocence. Divided by two due to both him and Blueleaf claiming doctor and the assumption that one is lying you get 35%.Divided by five for the chance that waffles was a random roleblock considering that waffles implied that he directly told you that he was blue representing the 20% chance that was random you get a 7% chance of innocence. Only 7%!!!! A 93% chance that he is scum! Tom is probably a smart mafia and would withhold a kill so that he could claim that laurina is town. I personally feel that the Gandalf lynch was intentional so that he could gain the town's trust.

Call this horrid logic if you want but I feel like it is the best case that the town has at the moment. I know that earlier I said that we should hold off the Tom lynch but I don't feel like that's the best way to go now.

That is quite possibly one of the worst explanations I've ever seen, and it isn't even correct.

You're assuming your percentages are correct but there are too many variables to make anything you said worth using as evidence. I wouldn't call this horrid logic because there isn't even any logic behind it. Just a bunch of assumptions and numbers that don't explain anything.

 

[Trent the Paladin]

And what are the chances Blueleaf is actually scum? You keep bringing up the Waffle roleblock and I can't really refute that other than saying it was poor timing. Not only that, but when I mentioned Kuma she ended up dying. Mafia cleaning shop perhaps and using her to frame me?

For those who were pm circle with Kayla or someone you better check, for me I don't think there are 3 Doctors and 2 DTs in game.

Waffles had posted this the day before she said she was roleblocked, surely the scum picked up on that and thought to roleblock her to test whether or not she was a doctor. When Waffles revealed she was, I'm sure the scum were very excited to get her lynched. After all, we weren't viewing her kindly in the thread until she died so getting a bandwagon going would more than likely be easy enough to do.

With the cat out of the bag, I'm being 100% honest that I'm a doctor. Night 1 I protected Tina, Night 2 Kayla (roleblocked), Night 3 LaurinaMN and Night 4 ProfGallows (also roleblocked). If there's two roleblockers left, doctors are essentially useless but still a small threat if a roleblocker gets lynched. I'm still very wary of anyone claiming to be a Detective to be honest, as it's much easier for scum to lie as they know the alignments already.

 

[Farobi]

Two votes for me—right at the same time? It's like you guys are starting a bandwagon for me, for no reason. Prof Gallows is trying to belittle people to prevent people for voting for Tom in this case; he's straight out defending him. And really, why choose to kill an inactive (Hikari) instead of three strong players (Laurina, Gallows, Tom). And why kill Kuma while they can kill Laurina straight off the bat without worries about protection? If she's town, she's a strong player and can likely wiggle her way out of it.

It's simple logic really: 3 strong players still in the game; Mafia chooses to kill Hikari instead of one of them. The reason for that is because all three are likely scum. Any of them could be the Godfather, not just Laurina btw. I think either Tom or even Gallows could be one as they both roleclaim as someone with a Blue Role.

- - - Post Merge - - -

If she's town, she's a strong player and can likely wiggle her way out of it. [CONT] And she isn't even surprised or scared. She doesn't even lay her suspicions the night before, it's like she's confident she won't be killed by Mafia.

 

[Trent the Paladin]

Me and Gallows are in a PM circle yes, my vote is flexible. The reason we're voting for you is the same as Day 4. We're not convinced you are what you claim to be, as like you said, it's incredibly easy for scum to claim they are a blue.

 

[Byngo]

Two votes for me—right at the same time? It's like you guys are starting a bandwagon for me, for no reason. Prof Gallows is trying to belittle people to prevent people for voting for Tom in this case; he's straight out defending him. And really, why choose to kill an inactive (Hikari) instead of three strong players (Laurina, Gallows, Tom). And why kill Kuma while they can kill Laurina straight off the bat without worries about protection? If she's town, she's a strong player and can likely wiggle her way out of it.

It's simple logic really: 3 strong players still in the game; Mafia chooses to kill Hikari instead of one of them. The reason for that is because all three are likely scum. Any of them could be the Godfather, not just Laurina btw. I think either Tom or even Gallows could be one as they both roleclaim as someone with a Blue Role.

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If she's town, she's a strong player and can likely wiggle her way out of it. [CONT] And she isn't even surprised or scared. She doesn't even lay her suspicions the night before, it's like she's confident she won't be killed by Mafia.

All of this is what I had thought. Other good players were killed quickly (SP, Oath, iLoveYou, Tina) but yet, these three are left, and if they were town, I'm sure the mafia would want them dead. My suspicion list has completely changed now. #agree

I still have yet to make a decision as I'm just not sure about who to lynch, because I was so convinced ITYW was mafia and that went to ****. ;_;

 

[Farobi]

Me and Gallows are in a PM circle yes, my vote is flexible. The reason we're voting for you is the same as Day 4. We're not convinced you are what you claim to be, as like you said, it's incredibly easy for scum to claim they are a blue.

Please present to us the content of the PMs and tell me why I am worthy of being lynched today.

- - - Post Merge - - -

Please present us*

 

[Dolby]

Tom and gallows, sorry for the late reply, gallows, I'm 13 and know more about probability then you? Something's not right. Tom the probability of Blueleaf being innocent is 35%. Farobi, I agree, three strong players left alive in the game is to much of a coincidence. I think we should lynch one of these three. Not killing someone night 3 would be something a smart mafia would do

 

[Farobi]

And I haven't even claimed a role yet?

- - - Post Merge - - -

We're not convinced you are what you claim to be, as like you said, it's incredibly easy for scum to claim they are a blue.

I think you're overthinking this. I have never roleclaimed anything in the thread yet.

I'll make a better post when I'm in my laptop. Dolby, stick with your vote.

 

[Trent the Paladin]

All of this is what I had thought. Other good players were killed quickly (SP, Oath, iLoveYou, Tina) but yet, these three are left, and if they were town, I'm sure the mafia would want them dead. My suspicion list has completely changed now. #agree

I still have yet to make a decision as I'm just not sure about who to lynch, because I was so convinced ITYW was mafia and that went to ****. ;_;

I'm as equally confused as the rest of you. The mafia have the resources to kill us yet they're just toying with us. Maybe they've gotten cocky?

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And I haven't even claimed a role yet?

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I think you're overthinking this. I have never roleclaimed anything in the thread yet.

I'll make a better post when I'm in my laptop. Dolby, stick with your vote.

No but Kuma has shared your supposed role, plus ITookYourWaffles somewhat leaked it as well.

 

[Dolby]

Tom, most of us besides you three are new/inactive/people don't care about our opinions, the only somewhat widely considered strong player is Blueleaf, Blueleaf was gonna be the next kill most likely but he roleclaimed medic making it kill him and lose two scum or leave him.

- - - Post Merge - - -

Only other

 

[Trent the Paladin]

Please present to us the content of the PMs and tell me why I am worthy of being lynched today.

- - - Post Merge - - -

Please present us*

There's more IRC messages, but we can share. I will forward to you the contents due to what is inside them.

- - - Post Merge - - -

Tom, most of us besides you three are new/inactive/people don't care about our opinions, the only somewhat widely considered strong player is Blueleaf, Blueleaf was gonna be the next kill most likely but he roleclaimed medic making it kill him and lose two scum or leave him.

- - - Post Merge - - -

Only other

And the inactives bug me honestly, why sign up for game and then do absolutely nothing?

Also I meant to say they're more IRC messages than PM, error on my part.