Mafia TBT Mafia IV: Red Revolution [Game Over/Mafia Win]

Tom and gallows, sorry for the late reply, gallows, I'm 13 and know more about probability then you? Something's not right. Tom the probability of Blueleaf being innocent is 35%. Farobi, I agree, three strong players left alive in the game is to much of a coincidence. I think we should lynch one of these three. Not killing someone night 3 would be something a smart mafia would do

Obviously you don't if you can't see all of the flaws in your post.

Your numbers have no facts to back them up. It's your assumptions. No hard evidence. If you want people to take your opinions seriously you need to go back and look through the thread and find stuff, if you can, to back up your statements.
 
Ok,after reading through the thread I am convinced that Tom is mafia. Why you ask? Let's look at the statistics

Tom starts out with a 100% chance of innocence, minus three out of ten(number of mafia to all players) you get 70% chance of innocence. Divided by two due to both him and Blueleaf claiming doctor and the assumption that one is lying you get 35%.Divided by five for the chance that waffles was a random roleblock considering that waffles implied that he directly told you that he was blue representing the 20% chance that was random you get a 7% chance of innocence. Only 7%!!!! A 93% chance that he is scum! Tom is probably a smart mafia and would withhold a kill so that he could claim that laurina is town. I personally feel that the Gandalf lynch was intentional so that he could gain the town's trust.

Call this horrid logic if you want but I feel like it is the best case that the town has at the moment. I know that earlier I said that we should hold off the Tom lynch but I don't feel like that's the best way to go now.
First, decrease to 70%, backed up by the fact that if you randomly choose one of use then the chance that person would be mafia is 30%, decrease to 35% it involves the assumption that one is lying I'll grant you that, I multiplied the 50% chance that he was telling the truth by 70%. As for the third assumption ITYW said that he roleclaimed to Tom that he was blue, see post 707, I can't do the quote since I'm on a kindle out of ten people to roleblock, assuming there are two roleblockers they block him, 20% chance of that happening so I multiplied that 20% by 35% to get 7%. If you still think that I'm scum and your town or if it's still illogical garbage that's fine with me
 
Yeah, who cares about these irrational percentages? It's simple. THERE IS NO PROBABILITY INVOLVED. It's irrelevant, and we lynch based on what's been said in this thread. You've earned my vote, and you've also utterly confused me with numbers that make no sense to me.
 
First, decrease to 70%, backed up by the fact that if you randomly choose one of use then the chance that person would be mafia is 30%, decrease to 35% it involves the assumption that one is lying I'll grant you that, I multiplied the 50% chance that he was telling the truth by 70%. As for the third assumption ITYW said that he roleclaimed to Tom that he was blue, see post 707, I can't do the quote since I'm on a kindle out of ten people to roleblock, assuming there are two roleblockers they block him, 20% chance of that happening so I multiplied that 20% by 35% to get 7%. If you still think that I'm scum and your town or if it's still illogical garbage that's fine with me
That's ironic.

Just find evidence instead of using probability because you are confusing a lot of people. I'm surprised even you thought it made sense.
 
Fireninja, where have you been since day one? I don't remember a single post from you since night one
 
Dolby, I'm rereading your posts, and all I really see is just you explaining votes.
 
I've been around TBT. At school, doing homework, you know.

Simple question = answered.
Ok, most of my posts in day one and night one didn't contribute much, day two I was offline until 8 hours before the lynch, as for day3 to now, I'm in a accelerated program and have a lot of homework so I just said why I voted for the person, the night schedule l, I sleep through most of it and have had little to contribute to discussion.
 
(Sorry for lurking, I'm eating right now)

Using just mathematics to suspect someone is just illogical. Even if a percent says I'm at least somewhat innocent, it won't mean anything. Even so, voting for Dolby because of that is just plain illogical. His percents don't mean anything, so why suspect him?

Just like the Waffles lynch, if we all don't agree on person, we won't get anywhere. If the majority is with lynching Farobi, I guess I don't have much of a choice. I still have a suspicion on Tom, though. I believe the Gandalf lynch was intentional, and was all to gain trust, just as Kayla did with Hikari in Game 2 or 3.

I'll wait for my vote until more people get into the discussion. We can't decide on who to lynch on our own.
 
(Sorry for lurking, I'm eating right now)

Using just mathematics to suspect someone is just illogical. Even if a percent says I'm at least somewhat innocent, it won't mean anything. Even so, voting for Dolby because of that is just plain illogical. His percents don't mean anything, so why suspect him?

Just like the Waffles lynch, if we all don't agree on person, we won't get anywhere. If the majority is with lynching Farobi, I guess I don't have much of a choice. I still have a suspicion on Tom, though. I believe the Gandalf lynch was intentional, and was all to gain trust, just as Kayla did with Hikari in Game 2 or 3.

I'll wait for my vote until more people get into the discussion. We can't decide on who to lynch on our own.

And not voting will get us all modkilled. We've got less than 24 hours to find someone.
 
(Sorry for lurking, I'm eating right now)

Using just mathematics to suspect someone is just illogical. Even if a percent says I'm at least somewhat innocent, it won't mean anything. Even so, voting for Dolby because of that is just plain illogical. His percents don't mean anything, so why suspect him?

Just like the Waffles lynch, if we all don't agree on person, we won't get anywhere. If the majority is with lynching Farobi, I guess I don't have much of a choice. I still have a suspicion on Tom, though. I believe the Gandalf lynch was intentional, and was all to gain trust, just as Kayla did with Hikari in Game 2 or 3.

I'll wait for my vote until more people get into the discussion. We can't decide on who to lynch on our own.

I'm trying to get in the discussion. Later, I'm going to read through the whole game to see if I can find anything suspicious from the people I suspect. I don't hold much hope for that though, as I'm not the best at analyzing. :c

^ Just wanted to point that out so people don't think I'm lazy or not wanting to play :x
 
Tom

If anything, this lynch should be Tom vs BlueLeaf; and I'm confident that BlueLeaf is the real doctor. He came forward to Waffles as the other Doctor, and then Waffles forwarded the message to me. I introduced myself to BlueLeaf, we discussed stuff that I'll not announce just yet, and I realized that we share the same suspicions. I tried to bring other people who I believe is town in our discussion through PMs, though some seem hesitant or even suspicious of contacting them, so I just leave them be for now.

Now about Tom. I trust BlueLeaf, but that doesn't doesn't automatically mean I distrust Tom. I have seen and analyzed numerous things in the thread that convinced me that he's scum. Here are some.

? Simultaneous vote on me today alongside Prof Gallows

Honestly I wasn't surprised that you guys voted for me as it seemed that I am an easy person to convince the town to lynch. Though not giving a reason in the thread on why you voted for me? If anyone is getting cocky, it's both of you. Don't underestimate the rest of the town. We also need to clear the "Who's the real Doctor?" Case as soon as possible, and I am convinced that BlueLeaf is the real one. If Tom is somehow the real doctor, then tomorrow's lynch will be up to the rest of you guys. I'm sure he's not the real Doctor though ;)

? Leading Gandalf's lynch - Going Deeper

I have seen Gandalf visit the thread often at the day you brought up a case against him. What i found odd is that he defended himself when iLoveYou accused him of being a Godfather yet he has never defended himself during the day he got lynched by Tom, it's like he wanted to get lynched in order to achieve something. No one objected his lynch as well. He was also the Mafia Goon, the least useful role of the Mafia. I can see why Tom would intend to do this: 1) to gain trust and 2) to lead them to suspect Waffles, BBG, and I.

Also, you still haven't died last night. But roleblocked instead? Really?

? Waffles lynch

You were hesitant on lynching someone who claimed Doctor to you, makes sense. But why didn't you want to defend her? You probably knew her role via PM (and the thread too, as she gave many unintentional hints) but didn't want to defend her. Now, here's a post you made that I find interesting:

We've got two people claiming roleblock though, only one of which I absolutely trust.

So BlueLeaf and Waffles claimed to have been roleblocked. Who exactly was the person you absolutely knew was roleblocked? If it was Waffles, then why didn't you defend her while she was the lynch candidate? If it was BlueLeaf, then why are you suspecting him as scum now? This post is enough to convince me that Tom is scum.

? beary509

This is extremely subtle, but it's still in the lines of defending a scum mate:

Tom said:
Beary has never been the strongest player so I'm not terribly sure what to think of her. :/

? SuperPenguin

His death N1 pretty much shows how much of a threat he was to the Mafia. Scum obviously wanted him gone, and guess who also publicly announced his disapproval of SP being Mayor?

Trundle you're a smart player and so is SuperPenguin, but in his quest to become mayor he's coming off as overly rude and to some, desperate. Within the past day he's been nothing rude and berating to the other players, coming off as very anti-town. We'd all like nothing more than to work with SP, not against him, but if his attitude does not improve I really think we should consider him for the day one lynch.


I had to type this all in a phone, late at night, so expect some grammar mistakes etc. I hope I wake up finding the rest of the town making the right choice. Good night.
 
I'm trying to get in the discussion. Later, I'm going to read through the whole game to see if I can find anything suspicious from the people I suspect. I don't hold much hope for that though, as I'm not the best at analyzing. :c

^ Just wanted to point that out so people don't think I'm lazy or not wanting to play :x
I'd just look at the main "battles" of suspicions and see if anyone has been suspecting, defending, etc.
 
Tom

If anything, this lynch should be Tom vs BlueLeaf; and I'm confident that BlueLeaf is the real doctor. He came forward to Waffles as the other Doctor, and then Waffles forwarded the message to me. I introduced myself to BlueLeaf, we discussed stuff that I'll not announce just yet, and I realized that we share the same suspicions. I tried to bring other people who I believe is town in our discussion through PMs, though some seem hesitant or even suspicious of contacting them, so I just leave them be for now.

People are hesitant after lynching Waffles to lynch another blue, let's be honest. They lynch me and a I flip blue, then you guys are screwed. We lynch Blue Leaf and he flips blue, you guys are screwed. Me and Blue Leaf are both lynched at some point AND we both return blue, you guys are screwed.

Now about Tom. I trust BlueLeaf, but that doesn't doesn't automatically mean I distrust Tom. I have seen and analyzed numerous things in the thread that convinced me that he's scum. Here are some.

? Simultaneous vote on me today alongside Prof Gallows

Honestly I wasn't surprised that you guys voted for me as it seemed that I am an easy person to convince the town to lynch. Though not giving a reason in the thread on why you voted for me? If anyone is getting cocky, it's both of you. Don't underestimate the rest of the town. We also need to clear the "Who's the real Doctor?" Case as soon as possible, and I am convinced that BlueLeaf is the real one. If Tom is somehow the real doctor, then tomorrow's lynch will be up to the rest of you guys. I'm sure he's not the real Doctor though ;)

Ignoring you calling out Prof Gallows here, we placed votes on you for the same reason we tried Day 4. Saw no real reason to explain as we figured you guys were smart enough to pick up on that. Sure I'm pretty damn hesitant with my vote now if you're absolutely telling the truth, but do we have any better candidates? We could lynch a lurker and gamble red, but at this point in the game it'll just hurt us. Lynching off strong ones hurt us.

? Leading Gandalf's lynch - Going Deeper

I have seen Gandalf visit the thread often at the day you brought up a case against him. What i found odd is that he defended himself when iLoveYou accused him of being a Godfather yet he has never defended himself during the day he got lynched by Tom, it's like he wanted to get lynched in order to achieve something. No one objected his lynch as well. He was also the Mafia Goon, the least useful role of the Mafia. I can see why Tom would intend to do this: 1) to gain trust and 2) to lead them to suspect Waffles, BBG, and I.

And what about the chance that Gandalf knew I'd rally against him regardless? He spend a long time arguing with iLoveYou and when she died that ultimately sealed his fate. Told him I was going to push his lynch regardless unless he came up with 100% genuine mafioso. Question: How does Gandalf immediately lead you, Waffles and BBG? When Waffles was getting lynched, I provided absolutely nothing but the final vote because others were asking me to. I wasn't 100% convinced Waffles was scum, wasn't 100% convinced Waffles was a doctor either.
Also, you still haven't died last night. But roleblocked instead? Really?

I'm sure Leaf is thinking the same. The way I figure it, Mafia has two roleblockers and the godfather left. Doctors at this point are absolutely useless. They block us, kill some townies and just laugh as we argue amongst ourselves about which doctor is real when they know the real answer. The way I had it figured, Leaf and I were to die if we were innocent. Yet here we are, someone must think keeping us alive to create a distraction helps.

? Waffles lynch

You were hesitant on lynching someone who claimed Doctor to you, makes sense. But why didn't you want to defend her? You probably knew her role via PM (and the thread too, as she gave many unintentional hints) but didn't want to defend her. Now, here's a post you made that I find interesting:

Defend Waffles with what exactly? At the time I still believed it was just me and Blue Leaf who were doctors. Waffles had pretty much contributed squat so getting town to ease off would have been difficult, especially with the others so sure she was scum. Push to hard and it works against you, no gentle push as there was no fluff to give.

So BlueLeaf and Waffles claimed to have been roleblocked. Who exactly was the person you absolutely knew was roleblocked? If it was Waffles, then why didn't you defend her while she was the lynch candidate? If it was BlueLeaf, then why are you suspecting him as scum now? This post is enough to convince me that Tom is scum.

Blue Leaf naturally. He and I worked with Kayla and I had hoped to work with him some more before he backed away and accused me of being Godfather. :/ I suspected him after the Waffles lynch, as she returned blue. I didn't think he was scum before hand as my roleblock I chalked up to Gandalf relaying some information back to his scum team. But Night 2 when Leaf "protected" me, I was roleblocked and Kayla died. So he's either telling the truth or he's a Mafioso Roleblocker.

? beary509

This is extremely subtle, but it's still in the lines of defending a scum mate:

How exactly is this any different from any one of you? >:/ Game II you guys lynched Beary for being a nuisance. Game III the mafia kept her around as a distraction before killing her night 3. Are any of us exactly sure what Beary does? Let's be honest, she'd probably still be here if Kayla or Tina hadn't shot her. I think you're grasping at straws with this point.

? SuperPenguin

His death N1 pretty much shows how much of a threat he was to the Mafia. Scum obviously wanted him gone, and guess who also publicly announced his disapproval of SP being Mayor?

Yeah, I disapproved with his tactics. I'd hoped that he'd 180% with his campaign and then come back approaching it another way. I really had no intention of going forth with his lynch, even told him as much in the IRC later on. It'd be like that Scared Straight show.


I had to type this all in a phone, late at night, so expect some grammar mistakes etc. I hope I wake up finding the rest of the town making the right choice. Good night.

Responses in green.
 
Guys, I swear, I'm the true Doctor. I give you my word. If you don't like my word, kill/lynch me and find out. I pretty much told the Mafia not to kill/lynch me or suspicion will cast on Tom. I didn't die, so I'm assuming Mafia didn't take the chance. Even if Tom was Town, wouldn't they have killed me to get suspicion on Tom anyway? They could have killed 2 birds with one stone: Kill a Medic, Frame an innocent, assuming Tom is innocent. However, this didn't happen.

For those of you wondering, my actions:

Night 1: Protect Tina
Night 2: Protect Tom
Night 3: Myself, got role blocked
Night 4: Farobi, got role blocked

You most likely noticed I got role blocked two times in a row. I assume there are two role blockers, that did this:
RB1: Blocked me on Night 3
RB2: Blocked me on Night 4
 
Back
Top