I have no idea. Why should I lynch between people I can't read well. There's 20 people and you're asking me to pick out if what? 4 people are mafia? Even picking 1 out is an impossible task. I'd much rather read for people I'm fairly certain are town, and solve from there.
can someone explain what they mean when they say we're not losing out on a kill if we do NL? surely we are. sorry if that's a dumb question but it's not like we would get double the next day
Basically, because of the numbers I wrote, the logic is that even if we don't lynch here, and 2 kills happen, we actually gain an additional day than if we use this lynch.
Because the ideal scenario with 1 mafia is (2 town 1 mafia) The ideal scenario for 4 mafia is (6 town 4 mafia) Assuming normal KP rules. So by no lynching, we go from a (8 town 4 mafia) situation (which has the same number of lynches) to a (6town4 mafia) situation.
So in summary, we gain a night, and lose 2 town members.
(Who were arguably going to die anyways.)
~snip~ PandaDarling - Panda has been pretty inactive. Her RQS literally targeted all new people. Going to note that panda posted significantly later than most ppl, so she had time to read some things from the thread but still decided that three new people would be a suitable scum team after everything that had occurred before her post. She also pointed out "the town" slip as trundle and is using it as a reason to join the bandwagon when there's so many interactions and ppl she hasn't commented on, ie jacob. The small reads post she made rn talks about tae, mog and glow who seem relatively less active, when the whole antonio/dan v trundle is going on with more content. Its hypocritical of me to an extent but I still think panda isn't doing enough and when she does posts it seems unrelated to what happening at hand.
~snip~
f11 did you skip the part of my post where I stated I was currently reading the thread and wanted to post my RQS answers in the mean time ?.... how convenient.
Basically, because of the numbers I wrote, the logic is that even if we don't lynch here, and 2 kills happen, we actually gain an additional day than if we use this lynch.
Because the ideal scenario with 1 mafia is (2 town 1 mafia) The ideal scenario for 4 mafia is (6 town 4 mafia) Assuming normal KP rules. So by no lynching, we go from a (8 town 4 mafia) situation (which has the same number of lynches) to a (6town4 mafia) situation.
So in summary, we gain a night, and lose 2 town members.
(Who were arguably going to die anyways.)
Nothing I say today holds up if we go to tomorrow.
Its only relevant today, and right now. Also I will absolutely have much stronger reads by tomorrow regardless of whether we lynch or not.
Finally. Assuming the mafia doesn't just know the whole setup, the RISK of a potential investigative/protective combo is good enough to force mafia to kill. Putting it another way, it's an open trap. If you imagine yourself as mafia, and force yourself to pick 2 kills, what's the worst possible scenario you can think of?
I have no idea. Why should I lynch between people I can't read well. There's 20 people and you're asking me to pick out if what? 4 people are mafia? Even picking 1 out is an impossible task. I'd much rather read for people I'm fairly certain are town, and solve from there.
I am lynching someone I think is mafia and that's Trundle. He currently is the most sus out of the game and if he is voted off, no matter what alignment he is, he won't be a sus read for anyone. That would make room for fewer people to be sussed during day 2, making it easier for us to vote off scum.
I understand you not coming to a conclusion and voting no lynch. However, arguing that a no lynch is a better option for everyone rather then a single lynch is not true at all.
I'm voting Trundle. His early game was filler, taking about edits and refers to previous games to make him look more town. He doesn't challenge any pressure on him, only refers to the people who put pressure on him as town cuz they sussed him. I use this tactic before in previous games. Finally, he responds to my jokes in a hostile manner indicating he's playing with a hostile mindset. It's like reverse psychology, in terms of baiting. There's a word for it. He basically took my bait and acted hostile.
A good majority of my reads right now are almost 100% gut feeling. I wouldn't say any of them are strong at all.
Geoni is definitely just gut feeling right now, along with you.
I do think that Trundle has posted some sus things and I agree with some thoughts from other players. (will elaborate more after I finish my school work)
I didn’t mean to imply that, town ppl def can value information but that information is directly opposed to trundles role (if you think trundle is town)
f11 did you skip the part of my post where I stated I was currently reading the thread and wanted to post my RQS answers in the mean time ?.... how convenient.
Shawo
Mog - might have been a little pre-emptive on the lock, but in time bomb/veteran game she didn’t make a post with content a while after the RQS, this game she’s done the opposite and made a lot of contentful posts.
Evan - had good effort early, tone felt natural
Townlean:
Trundle - he could go either way, his tone reads as he’s hiding something, but this could just be him repressing yelling at the whole town. My scumreads generally mostly want to lynch him, so I believe he’s town for this. Don’t feel like this is a good lynch.
f11 - part of me likes her reads post, but that is totally in her scumrange.
Null:
DinoTown - I like him having thoughts and I think that’s towny but his thoughts aren’t that towny. This is a terrible explanation.
Tae - didn’t absorb a single tae post into my memory honestly
Locket - my gut is whispering scum, but i’m not sure about that read at all
Jacob - I honestly don’t remember them doing anything AI.
Everyone Else - I didn’t absorb a read. I can do quick ISOs if needed.
Wolflean:
Geoni - honestly his defense of me felt like white-knighting, this isn’t very strong.
Panda - don’t have a single reason or her to be town at all, they’ve been quiet so far.
Antonio - his read on trundle really read as faked, the reasoning doesn’t seem real. I skipped half of the posts insulting trundle. He pairs very well with daniel.
I am lynching someone I think is mafia and that's Trundle. He currently is the most sus out of the game and if he is voted off, no matter what alignment he is, he won't be a sus read for anyone. That would make room for fewer people to be sussed during day 2, making it easier for us to vote off scum.
I understand you not coming to a conclusion and voting no lynch. However, arguing that a no lynch is a better option for everyone rather then a single lynch is not true at all.
For me this was super weird because this is a fairly intelligent reaction to Maf vs Town divide guesses. IDK how Werewolf is player or how much KP is involved in that as a fluctuating number, but for someone who claims to have no forum mafia experience and only experience on werewolf with low experience players, this response has insight on KP in reference to this game that would not have crossed my mind. So that’s a red flag for me.
my experience with werewolf has actually included some terms that are similar to mafia here. kp is certainly one, when there's a larger amount of players we have to guess how many kills the wolves would have in the night. i always recalled it being really unbalanced towards the town's side, which is why i asked in response to heyden talking about the sole number of mafia.
could you please give any evidence of my passive aggression? it's not how i intended the post, and perhaps you interpreted my post a little different to how i actually meant it.
20 Players and ignoring TP for a sec bc that's less predictable:
16 town-4 Scum. Each Day ends in a mislynch and maf kills 2 each time (assume no/bad doc for a worst case scenario)
D1: 16-4 D2: 13-4 D3: 10-4 D4: 7-4 Mislynch D4 and we loose
17 town-3 Scum. Same as before
D1: 17-3 D2: 16-3 D3: 13-3 D4: 10-3 D5: 7-3 D6: 4v3 Mislynch D5 and loose
If there's no TP, its most likely 4 maf
Now same numbers as before but we no lynch. Worst case we mislynch each time after and maf kills successfully
D1: 16-4 D2: 14-4 D3: 11-4 D4: 8-4 D5: 5-4 Mislynch D5 and loose
Shawo's math does check out, however, this assumes that there's no TP, no vig, no doctor, or no hostile TP (passive tp would only take away from towns numbers). I highly doubt these roles aren't in the game at all, which is why i still think lynching is fine since its not guaranteed the worst case actually happens each phase
my experience with werewolf has actually included some terms that are similar to mafia here. kp is certainly one, when there's a larger amount of players we have to guess how many kills the wolves would have in the night. i always recalled it being really unbalanced towards the town's side, which is why i asked in response to heyden talking about the sole number of mafia.
we will be lynching today, if you like it or not. we can do a cfd (Chinese fire drill, move off the lynch to a different one right before eod) but first i want everyone's thoughts on daniel
20 Players and ignoring TP for a sec bc that's less predictable:
16 town-4 Scum. Each Day ends in a mislynch and maf kills 2 each time (assume no/bad doc for a worst case scenario)
D1: 16-4 D2: 13-4 D3: 10-4 D4: 7-4 Mislynch D4 and we loose
17 town-3 Scum. Same as before
D1: 17-3 D2: 16-3 D3: 13-3 D4: 10-3 D5: 7-3 D6: 4v3 Mislynch D5 and loose
If there's no TP, its most likely 4 maf
Now same numbers as before but we no lynch. Worst case we mislynch each time after and maf kills successfully
D1: 16-4 D2: 14-4 D3: 11-4 D4: 8-4 D5: 5-4 Mislynch D5 and loose
Shawo's math does check out, however, this assumes that there's no TP, no vig, no doctor, or no hostile TP (passive tp would only take away from towns numbers). I highly doubt these roles aren't in the game at all, which is why i still think lynching is fine since its not guaranteed the worst case actually happens each phase
I will admit, I think the most likely scenario here is a doctor.
I think the rest are a little unrealistic (barring town vig)
so we have
20 - 18 (doc save) - 15 - 12 - 9 - 6 - 4
So assuming we lynch maf on the best days we don't gain anything unless there are 2 doc saves.
So then we have vig.
which goes
20 - 16 (vig kill) -13 - 10 - 7
which actually evens us back into the best case scenario.
So I'll go ahead and say that if there's a one shot kill with the town, we're better off lynching.
