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Mafia TBT Mafia: Renaissance - Game Thread [ENDGAME - Town Wins]

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I guess my question is

"What's stopping you from getting reads from the lynch even if we NL."

Again, let's Assume Trundle flips town.

There's two scenarios,Trundle flips town, or Trundle flips mafia. I missed the last few pages on my skim, but I'm the only person who's even said anything remotely similar to "if X is mafia that means Y is this"

I mean I'm more than capable of looking at the votes right now and coming to my own conclusions about the situation.

I guess more importantly.

"What are the normal numbers for mafia in a game"
"What powers do they normally have"

Would be questions I'll ask, because if 2 mafia with 2 kills is normal for a 20 person game I'm probably not going to be great at analyzing it.
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On this site, killing power is calculated by Scum team/2 round up. If there's only 2 maf, then it's only 1 kp

what the fk
 
what is revelvant to you right now? you ignored my question on your PR claim and I don't think we should NL. Jacob and Trundle are the lynch candidates and im engaging with those two wagons
Knowing what pr shawo is rn actually doesn’t matter because the vote is happening really soon and it’s not plausible for a majority to switch to shawo. Rn it just seems like your pr sniffing lol
 
The typical power of maf is godfather, role blocker, framer, and (rarely) strong-arm. If there's 3-4 maf that means its 2 kp most likely. it could be set to 1 but the hosts usually announces a set KP
 
That's not true? Did you even read my post? Are you just shutting me down because you're used to playing one way?

Or do you just want Trundle to get lynched :)
Or are you attempting to persuade town for a no lynch so trundle isn't voted off?

*****, let's go.
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Let's talk about probability, shall we?

There's a 5% chance trundle is scum and a 95% chance he is the town, statistically. However, there's a 100% chance we get some information from day 1, no matter who it is or what alignment it is if someone is voted off.

If we go for a no lynch, there's a chance mafia will vote off an inactive so we'll be limited during day 2. There's also a chance that mafia might have a better gameplan during night 1-day 2 go forward since no one was voted off. We'll also be limited with information starting night 1 or even day 2.

Wouldn't having more information quicker make it easier for us to figure out who is scum rather than wait 1 or even 2 phases?
 
So a team of 5 mafia would kill 3 people is what you're saying?

If so that makes it easy.

There can't be 5 mafia.

20 ppl with 5 mafia means
20 - 15 - 10
Which is a 2 day game.

So that means there must be 3 or 4 mafia
20 - 17 - 14 - 11 - 8
19 - 16 - 13 - 10 - 7

In either of these cases no lynching doesn't lose us any lynches, because the numbers we're looking to hit "7, and 9" (the lowest possible amount of towns against mafia)
is beneficial to us.

I will admit I'm assuming that if there are 3 mafia, and one dies, the mafia ends up with only 1 kill.

So even if you follow through with the absolute worst case numbers to a town win. It looks like

20 NL
19
16
13
10
lynch maf
2 kills
7 (3 mafia)
lynch maf
1 kill
5 (2 mafia)
etc.

With 3 mafia it becomes even easier, since you get an additional day to lynch wrong.

Tell me if that assumption is incorrect, but if it is correct, I'm going to go ahead and say that mafia can't have 3 or less members either, due to the fact that if ONE dies, town gets an addition 2-3 lynches.
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Locket why did you like that post it was awful.

it was actually terrible.
 
It's possible there could be 3 maf if ness gave them a PR that has an extra night kill or two but its unlikely
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It's also possible a Third Party Serial killer is a thing that has 1 kill every night, its kinda common on tbt
 
Also of the people who I've interacted f11 and locket are the only ones who really make sense here.
Damniel is great at talking about mechanics but I still find a lot of his other posts really lackluster.
 
So a team of 5 mafia would kill 3 people is what you're saying?

If so that makes it easy.

There can't be 5 mafia.

20 ppl with 5 mafia means
20 - 15 - 10
Which is a 2 day game.

So that means there must be 3 or 4 mafia
20 - 17 - 14 - 11 - 8
19 - 16 - 13 - 10 - 7

In either of these cases no lynching doesn't lose us any lynches, because the numbers we're looking to hit "7, and 9" (the lowest possible amount of towns against mafia)
is beneficial to us.

I will admit I'm assuming that if there are 3 mafia, and one dies, the mafia ends up with only 1 kill.

So even if you follow through with the absolute worst case numbers to a town win. It looks like

20 NL
19
16
13
10
lynch maf
2 kills
7 (3 mafia)
lynch maf
1 kill
5 (2 mafia)
etc.

With 3 mafia it becomes even easier, since you get an additional day to lynch wrong.

Tell me if that assumption is incorrect, but if it is correct, I'm going to go ahead and say that mafia can't have 3 or less members either, due to the fact that if ONE dies, town gets an addition 2-3 lynches.
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Locket why did you like that post it was awful.

it was actually terrible.

if there's only 3 maf, i think a hostile TP is a possibility. If there's no Third Party then I think its 4 maf yea
 
Locket why did you like that post it was awful.

it was actually terrible.
I agree with Antonio. If we wait more phases it'll just screw us over in the long run. Lynching D1 is our best bet for information to help us advance and lynch mafia.
 
So a team of 5 mafia would kill 3 people is what you're saying?

If so that makes it easy.

There can't be 5 mafia.

20 ppl with 5 mafia means
20 - 15 - 10
Which is a 2 day game.

So that means there must be 3 or 4 mafia
20 - 17 - 14 - 11 - 8
19 - 16 - 13 - 10 - 7

In either of these cases no lynching doesn't lose us any lynches, because the numbers we're looking to hit "7, and 9" (the lowest possible amount of towns against mafia)
is beneficial to us.

I will admit I'm assuming that if there are 3 mafia, and one dies, the mafia ends up with only 1 kill.

So even if you follow through with the absolute worst case numbers to a town win. It looks like

20 NL
19
16
13
10
lynch maf
2 kills
7 (3 mafia)
lynch maf
1 kill
5 (2 mafia)
etc.

With 3 mafia it becomes even easier, since you get an additional day to lynch wrong.

Tell me if that assumption is incorrect, but if it is correct, I'm going to go ahead and say that mafia can't have 3 or less members either, due to the fact that if ONE dies, town gets an addition 2-3 lynches.
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Locket why did you like that post it was awful.

it was actually terrible.
Where was it even implied there was gonna be 1 kill per mafia? Would it make sense to have a vote for a certain amount of people like previous games on the board?
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I agree with Antonio. If we wait more phases it'll just screw us over in the long run. Lynching D1 is our best bet for information to help us advance and lynch mafia.
God, you said it much better than me.
 
@shawo try 4 mafia 2 kills each night

It's there. I did assume that mafia loses kill power if we lynch 2 mafia.

If it's 4 mafia 2 kp Nling doesn't lose a lynch, same with 3.

If the mafia keeps their kill power (which just seems like a bad game mechanic.)

it goes

20 - 17 - 14 - 11 - 8 (you have to lynch a maf by this point)- 5 (you need to have lynched 3 mafia by this point, or you lose) - 2
 
Where was it even implied there was gonna be 1 kill per mafia? Would it make sense to have a vote for a certain amount of people like previous games on the board?

it seems like Shawo is used to the different rules of other sites but that don't really apply to TBT
 
it seems like Shawo is used to the different rules of other sites but that don't really apply to TBT
Understandable.

Since there is usually 2 mafia per 7 people, can't we assume there are at least 4-6 mafia members?
 
I agree with Antonio. If we wait more phases it'll just screw us over in the long run. Lynching D1 is our best bet for information to help us advance and lynch mafia.

I don't get it, how can you say that D2 will just be a repeat of D1 while also saying that we NEED to get information on d1.

Here, let me word it in a different way.

What do we lose from gaining information a day later?
We don't lose a day, in fact we gain one.
What makes you guys so anxious about GETTING a lynch d1, that you won't even consider it happening d2.


You won't even suggest a possible mafia role that completely shoots this idea out of the water.

You guys are telling me that lynching Trundle, even willing to say "even if he's town" the information you'll get will make up for that.

You also can't word the information or why you're unwilling to do it, without saying the same thing over and over again. I've written two pages of analysis on possible mafia kill numbers and roles. The least you can do is tell me what would kill this plan.
 
I’m gonna start here, writing this like 2 mins before i head into my math exam:

I understand where some intense and borderline pushy playstyle has a place on day 1, where it’s seemingly supposed to intimidate players to put out content or make mafia nervous or something. But I don’t think its wrong to suggest that a lot is being expected out of players on this particular Day 1. Just to voice where this is coming from, im pretty sure I have one of the higher post counts for players in the game, and i'm engaging far more than some people. Whether that be spitting out accusations or not (I’m really not, and I NEVER do D1. I’m simply not that good at reading game entrances as AI) participating in the thread even “lack of substance” on day 1 is not a reason to jump to placing down a vote. It seems super premature. There’s probably a way to read the aggression for wanting the thread to fill with almost 400 posts on Day 1, but I can hardly see myself accurately reading that situation. I’ll give it a try tho:

  • Day 1 games on tbt USUALLY stay mind numbingly slow, and that usually equates to mafia hiding in the shadows waiting for the first kill to respond, leaving nothing really alarming in the thread that’s alarming.
  • The usual slowness of day 1 could also be attributed to there being no “leader” in the game, which coincides with mafia hiding behind the shadows. This game simply is the opposite of that, and the post generation is coming mostly from Daniel and Trundle. Call them a “leader” of the Day if you wish but there seems to be a strong reason for wanting the push the day forward with posts, which again is unusual (for tbt at least, slow game starts are all I’m used to).

So I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that 1 or 2 mafia probably is /not/ hiding behind the shadows or is a lurker at this game start which is good, so I’m absolutely gonna keep my lynch pool within the active players if I can.


Here’s my final initial thought for now:

It feels like trundle just doesn’t know who else to vote and just picked a random active player (me) and tried to write up a case. If you wanna lynch me for avoiding the thread, I think there’s about 6 other people who would be more qualified for that position, and if you wanna lynch me based on interactions with mog, I really can’t say anything on that because I genuinely don’t understand that logic clearly. But that’s not your fault I just probably didn’t read it thoroughly enough which I’ll go back to.

And as food for thought, If I was mafia, WHY would I say in my RQS that I avoid the thread when I get pressured then in that same day start avoiding the thread like you’re suggesting I’m doing. Maybe your vote was a reaction test but if it wasn’t I think I’m not the only one who needs to start putting in a little more effort.


--

I’m out of my Exam now that I DEFINITELY failed so I have some time. I’m gonna start from the beginning of the thread and pick out things as I go. Typo's are almost a given I'm sorry

Admittedly, there has been enough Trundle talk throughout the thread so I pretty much skimmed his posts. Not all of them though because I do have some thoughts. They’ve all already been in the light enough and for some reason I can’t seem to lean any direction with him so I’m just gonna null him for day 1.
Im on post #104 right now taking a small break to log my thoughts.







This was a post that’s been jumped by some players that I honestly don’t see a problem from. This feels like a really typical game introduction to me. So continuing my through in this long post intro here’s an example of how I think some members might have an agenda behind their nitpickiness:







This feels absolutely like a reach to push content and a reaction to me, Evan even goes on to saying how he did end up finding the post useful and not just fake content generation. But asking someone why they would preface it with a self aware forewarning is so contradictory to me. Obviously Trundle said he was clarifying to avoid someone just jumping on him for brownie points and it seems like evan, and partially glow, did that as a little unnecessary jab. I’m saying this mostly because I saw exactly where aiden was coming from, it’s a headache to try and talk in the thread and have it be nitpicked for not being mind blowing game pushing evidence. So that’s a redflag to me on Evan’s part.






This is a real quick red flag to me. The RQS only asked players for 3 scum team guesses, then Crys provided 4, which has been a controversial estimate of the number of players on the actual scum team as we don’t know KP or if there’s a TP or not. She’s the only person to suggest there’s a 4 person scum team in the RQS so it stuck out to me.





I collected a few RQS answers that stuck out to me as polar ways to answer the “How do you react to pressure” question which, IMO is the most useful rqs question for alignment indicative answers. And this is only some

Genuine answers, self defining:




A tad mighty but still honest and NAI:



Not really defining their reactions to pressure, I’ll continue with this at the bottom:







Now they each have a different way of answering this question, Tae’s answer seems to come from a fairly nonchalant rhetoric which for some reason I always take as genuine, but it also is very dodgy. Answering with “depends” allows you to react any way to pressure in this game and not be linked back to how you said you would react, which is the main takeaway difference from the more personal ones above. Trundle says that he knowingly switches it up, which is the same way of dodging answering that question. Evan’s is a much more extreme example of him setting up how he can react when he gets pressured in this current game BECAUSE he mentions the possibility of him reacting like this, then claiming to be blue. More than anything it sounds like a paved answer if he ends up safe claiming a PR role that someone can trace back to his RQS after he’s been pressured doesn’t really sit well with me.

Im sorry all that must’ve been so super sloppy^^ Those RQS answers stuck out to me as noncommittal.








I don’t really have that much to say because this post was so extremely where it looked panicky. I remember the first time I read it I kinda did a ???? when he said he’s a lame PR because why even joke about that? Saying “Im a PR” rather than “I’m a lame PR” was just weird because he’s hinting at some specific power role. PR’s aren’t usually described as lame unless it actually is a lame one lol. Then it looked like he panicked with like 4 post merges. I can’t even say if this is a red flag or a joke-y post that I just didn’t read correctly.






I definitely think there is weight to a newer player in asking this, because no, I don’t think overanalysis for a lot of the posts on day 1 to this extent is normal. I’ve addressed this so thoroughly above tho, this is more of a supporting detail that there’s an unusual force behind deep diving in on some posts.







For me this was super weird because this is a fairly intelligent reaction to Maf vs Town divide guesses. IDK how Werewolf is player or how much KP is involved in that as a fluctuating number, but for someone who claims to have no forum mafia experience and only experience on werewolf with low experience players, this response has insight on KP in reference to this game that would not have crossed my mind. So that’s a red flag for me.









I can’t remember if I ever replied to this, I know I wanted to but i think I may have just let the convo drop as to not spiral out. It still reads like you know exactly what not to do as mafia at this point. And I can’t trust anyone this game so I’m gonna stick my thinking that you’re very introspective and shouldn’t fly under the META radar. Ie. Punchy saying you too confident to be scum right now, I’m not gonna blindly believe that.






I will be honest, I also thought your “you v me is town v scum (ur scum)” was a joke so reading this was interesting, looking forward to what you think about this eye straining post I’m writing up currently if you thought I was scummy for not having substance/scum leans.





One of the contradictions that I think went unnoticed is this one. Trundle as of recent you’ve been fairly pushy as well.





Maybe I’m being just jumpy and hyper on everything but this again is another (maybe my 3rd) red flag on Evan. What a strange way to phrase something like this.





It’s a tad bit strange to me how willing Locket is to assume there are so many experimental roles in this game. I don’t really recall mason being much of a common role so something about her suggestions of players being characters like this has me thinking that maybe she has a strange fake claim lol.





I’ve been called out for not offering up a scum lynch pool so here it is. I’d be OK lynching:
AmazonEvan, Harbour, Locket, Mogyay, Glow, Tae, and a hesitant Trundle, Crys and Oath.
I’m leaning most toward Evan but I’ll iso for myself before the lynch.
They're not all inherently scummy, but instead of saying all of the playerlist is in my lynch pool I wanted to narrow it down to people I at least do not trust entirely, or I am wish/washy about. I won't be pushing a lynch for all of them, I'll just be open to the idea of it.

I don’t want to vote Punchy, Geoni, Heyden, Emolga, or Daniel.



PS. does the degree of Glow and heyden interactions seems shockingly low for day one to anyone else? 🤔

Hey guys I'm around...ish. I'm at work for 13 more hours so it'll be tough to really address every little thing but Ness wants open nights so I'll take advantage of that.

Anyways, this is the first lost I want to address because it feels like a lot of nitpicking of stuff from the first 3rd of the posts so far (aside from Trundle's case on you), how caught up were you when you made this @Jacob ?

I feel like the first paragraph and the bullet points below it are like... unnecessary justifications for an unnecessary discussion of having early aggression if you aren't going to apply it to specific people, I thought you were going to bring me up but you never did lol.

What alignment indication are you really expecting from talking for so long about that specific RQS pressure answer? That's not something you revisit anytime soon aside from maybe Trundle's answer. And you want to lunch what I feel is one of the sharpest townies in the game just over that at the time of this post.

I agree that it's questionable how infrequent Heyden and Glow's contributions have been but glow isn't as problematic for me it's just that I haven't seen more collected and action driven thoughts yet but that might be in the catch up of the next seven pages and she feels more topical than Heyden so far.

Again, gotta catch up. Overall I'm not a huge fan of this post.
 
Shawo what we are getting at is that if there's NL, then it would feel pointless and uneventful since there's some very strong sus already but none of them would be fully addressed. we want a lynch (hopefully trundle's) as we can engage with the game and players more. tbt is less reliant on mechanics until it comes down to process of elimination near end game, or the amount of kills a night is confirmed in D2
 
Also, the cop claim by Shawo, did the discussion conclude for that or was the convo forgotten.
 
@shawo the math checks out but if no one else wants to no lynch (night ends in 2 hours) do you think anyone is plausibly mafia?
 
Understandable.

Since there is usually 2 mafia per 7 people, can't we assume there are at least 4-6 mafia members?

Apparantly the rules are mafia gets a kill for every mafia/2

So there can't be 5 or more, I wrote that post earlier.
In fact using this rule it's really easy to assume how many mafia there can reasonably be, since you can just mathematically sort every day phase as KP + 1.

Run it through every possible mafia number, and you end up with a reasonable time frame. My argument is right for the wrong reason.

If the numbers didn't add up I would have backed up by now.
 
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