Mafia TBT Mafia: Renaissance - Game Thread [ENDGAME - Town Wins]

[Antonio]

Apparantly the rules are mafia gets a kill for every mafia/2

So there can't be 5 or more, I wrote that post earlier.
In fact using this rule it's really easy to assume how many mafia there can reasonably be, since you can just mathematically sort every day phase as KP + 1.

Run it through every possible mafia number, and you end up with a reasonable time frame. My argument is right for the wrong reason.

If the numbers didn't add up I would have backed up by now.

That's not a 100% rule though. There's most likely a 2 kill per night unless there's a 3rd party role.

 

[shawo]

@shawo the math checks out but if no one else wants to no lynch (night ends in 2 hours) do you think anyone is plausibly mafia?

I think a lot of people have awful posts, but I don't think it makes them mafia. I'd much rather lynch in the people voting Trundle here than otherwise, because the lynch looks really opportunistic. In fact if more people were voting I'd assume there's also a mafia in the counterwagon, who's sitting there for town-cred if Trundle flips town.

Neither of the lynches really scream "Trundle is mafia and I'm trying to save him."


I really, really think Trundles PROBABLY town because of the lynch. Not to mention my own reads.

 

[f11]

the lynch no lynch dilemma to me shows if someone values information from a lynch vs the life of a possible town person

 

[shawo]

I'm not talking anymore. Mafia can kill me if they want

 

[Damniel]

i just noticed shea voted trundle but never popped in. what're you thinking shea

 

[Antonio]

I don't get it, how can you say that D2 will just be a repeat of D1 while also saying that we NEED to get information on d1.

Have you not factored in a possibility that night 2 could result in an inactive kill, leaving town with no information?

We got tons of information for day 1.

 

[mogyay]

there's 2 much math and i'm 2 dumb

 

[shawo]

About... my role...

Anyways. f11. A lot of people keep saying that, but it just seems really hollow when people won't even talk about what they'll gain if Trundle flips town.

 

[Locket]

I don't get it, how can you say that D2 will just be a repeat of D1 while also saying that we NEED to get information on d1.

Here, let me word it in a different way.

What do we lose from gaining information a day later?
We don't lose a day, in fact we gain one.
What makes you guys so anxious about GETTING a lynch d1, that you won't even consider it happening d2.


You won't even suggest a possible mafia role that completely shoots this idea out of the water.

You guys are telling me that lynching Trundle, even willing to say "even if he's town" the information you'll get will make up for that.

You also can't word the information or why you're unwilling to do it, without saying the same thing over and over again. I've written two pages of analysis on possible mafia kill numbers and roles. The least you can do is tell me what would kill this plan.

If Trundle flips town, we'll be able to see who targeted Trundle the hardest and we can move from there.
If Trundle flips scum, we'll be able to analyze his reads list and go from there.


If we gain information a day later, it would give mafia an advantage because we'll be clueless for ANOTHER day phase. It's a dumb decision to go with a NL. We know absolutely nothing, but mafia has knowledge.

 

[Jacob]

Hey guys I'm around...ish. I'm at work for 13 more hours so it'll be tough to really address every little thing but Ness wants open nights so I'll take advantage of that.

Anyways, this is the first lost I want to address because it feels like a lot of nitpicking of stuff from the first 3rd of the posts so far (aside from Trundle's case on you), how caught up were you when you made this @Jacob ?

I feel like the first paragraph and the bullet points below it are like... unnecessary justifications for an unnecessary discussion of having early aggression if you aren't going to apply it to specific people, I thought you were going to bring me up but you never did lol.

What alignment indication are you really expecting from talking for so long about that specific RQS pressure answer? That's not something you revisit anytime soon aside from maybe Trundle's answer. And you want to lunch what I feel is one of the sharpest townies in the game just over that at the time of this post.

I agree that it's questionable how infrequent Heyden and Glow's contributions have been but glow isn't as problematic for me it's just that I haven't seen more collected and action driven thoughts yet but that might be in the catch up of the next seven pages and she feels more topical than Heyden so far.

Again, gotta catch up. Overall I'm not a huge fan of this post.

my nitpickiness has been addressed yes i just thought they were red flags ok i never said that post was a case on anyone

 

[Geoni]

if that's your big brain mafia geoni then you're brain is tiny, why would trundle implicate me that obviously, and no even as a double bluff it's dumb as heck, i don't really think trundle is that suspect though based on what i think i know of him anyway, i'd rather look at other players first, i'll look through the thread later, i have a really intense period rn lol

Post automatically merged: Apr 7, 2020

'you're brain is tiny' the irony is not lost

Ouch!

Fwiw I am suspecting Trundle a little less so I'm not wanting to turn on that big brain atm anyways, but it really does seem like it was pulled out of thin air from him in a way that could be for spew were he mafia but again I've sorta dropped it because people are getting really distracted about it.

 

[shawo]

Have you not factored in a possibility that night 2 could result in an inactive kill, leaving town with no information?

We got tons of information for day 1.

I have. Mafia is forced to kill because of potential investigative roles.

If they don't, then even if the numbers are worse, town actually gets an advantage due to gaining an investigation.

Not to mention if there's a protective + investigative combo, that shuts the mafia out of the game.

 

[Antonio]

I think a lot of people have awful posts, but I don't think it makes them mafia. I'd much rather lynch in the people voting Trundle here than otherwise, because the lynch looks really opportunistic. In fact if more people were voting I'd assume there's also a mafia in the counterwagon, who's sitting there for town-cred if Trundle flips town.

Neither of the lynches really scream "Trundle is mafia and I'm trying to save him."


I really, really think Trundles PROBABLY town because of the lynch. Not to mention my own reads.

So, who currently voting for trundle do you think is taking advantage of the opportunity and if so, how?

 

[shawo]

Ouch!

Fwiw I am suspecting Trundle a little less so I'm not wanting to turn on that big brain atm anyways, but it really does seem like it was pulled out of thin air from him in a way that could be for spew were he mafia but again I've sorta dropped it because people are getting really distracted about it.

You're the only person I know who's a host, so can you run through the numbers and tell people I'm right. Feel free to tell me it's a terrible idea afterwards, I just want someone to agree that my numbers are correct and then give me a valid counterpoint.

I still think I'm correct, but I will admit this the "regular rules" are different enough for me to step back if someone can give me a bad enough worst case.

 

[mogyay]

the lynch no lynch dilemma to me shows if someone values information from a lynch vs the life of a possible town person

i don't think that's fair if ur implying u can't be town if u value information

 

[f11]

About... my role...

Anyways. f11. A lot of people keep saying that, but it just seems really hollow when people won't even talk about what they'll gain if Trundle flips town.

Trundle flips town then there’s a whole lot of bandwagoners to sort out and that’s not necessarily easy. i wouldn’t really understand the information concretely after the night kills occur because that’s more context.

 

[Harbour]

i have 14 pages to read full of big posts and there's less than two hours to vote. i'm going to skim through the pages and make a quick decision. it's either punchy/shawo for me.

 

[mogyay]

can someone explain what they mean when they say we're not losing out on a kill if we do NL? surely we are. sorry if that's a dumb question but it's not like we would get double the next day

 

[shawo]

i don't think that's fair if ur implying u can't be town if u value information

I don't actually think f11 said that.

I like f11.

Also @Antonio.

I have no idea. Why should I lynch between people I can't read well. There's 20 people and you're asking me to pick out if what? 4 people are mafia? Even picking 1 out is an impossible task. I'd much rather read for people I'm fairly certain are town, and solve from there.

Are you even lynching someone you think is mafia?

 

[mogyay]

oh i'm sorry if i misunderstood f11, that's why i said 'imply' sorry, may have misinterpreted that, it's useful information for thought either way but i was just thinking i don't think it's untowny to not want a NL