Mafia TBT Mafia: Steven Universe 2 Mafia!!! Town and Kat win!!!!

[Byngo]

Okay, did some work in the second post and I figured out something interesting...

Right now we're at the point where the general consensus is two Neutrals (Kat and Byngo, who claimed Unlynched and Jester, respectively). This could be a lie, but I digress.

That leaves us with 13 total Town, and 5 total Mafia. Looking at the Town, we have a total of 17 Role Names.

Why is this significant? This means that either A) Mafia cannot have safe claims, due to there not being enough Town role names to make up for such claims, OR B) Kat and/or Byngo are lying about their claims.

Meaning, I could potentially be wrong about there not being safe claims, but if I am, that means at least one of Kat and Byngo are guaranteed to be lying (and my principle, is confirmed Mafia), since that would then allow enough Townsfolk to allow each Mafia member to have a safe claim.

Personally? I'm doubting my own opinion on safe claims based on this information, and am now more inclined to believe the latter situation, in which either Kat or Byngo must be lying about their claim in order to allow for safe claims to even exist at all.

Tl;dr - Two neutrals and safe claims cannot coexist in this game. This means either there aren't safe claims, or there are, and at least one of Kat and Byngo is Mafia.

holy crapolli

maybe i can win

 

[xCleb]

At this rate, I think Apple is telling the truth about his claim. There is no possible safe claim that Mafia can make for Detective, therefore we likely would have seen a counterclaim by now (I swear to god if Curry is Detective I'm gonna scream). Whether or not safe claims exist, this puts Apple as Town, and Kat/Byngo in a very questionable position.

I think we need to take the vote off of Apple and look toward another target.

 

[Arstotzkan]

not saying we can't lynch him but it's not like we can keep going without pausing to consider the possibilities.

Yeah, but still, I bet you there was scum in there, especially the people who went along with it after some initial support for the idea was shown.

 

[PandaDarling]

Okay, did some work in the second post and I figured out something interesting...

Right now we're at the point where the general consensus is two Neutrals (Kat and Byngo, who claimed Unlynched and Jester, respectively). This could be a lie, but I digress.

That leaves us with 13 total Town, and 5 total Mafia. Looking at the Town, we have a total of 17 Role Names.

Why is this significant? This means that either A) Mafia cannot have safe claims, due to there not being enough Town role names to make up for such claims, OR B) Kat and/or Byngo are lying about their claims.

Meaning, I could potentially be wrong about there not being safe claims, but if I am, that means at least one of Kat and Byngo are guaranteed to be lying (and my principle, is confirmed Mafia), since that would then allow enough Townsfolk to allow each Mafia member to have a safe claim.

Personally? I'm doubting my own opinion on safe claims based on this information, and am now more inclined to believe the latter situation, in which either Kat or Byngo must be lying about their claim in order to allow for safe claims to even exist at all.

Tl;dr - Two neutrals and safe claims cannot coexist in this game. This means either there aren't safe claims, or there are, and at least one of Kat and Byngo is Mafia.

thats why i said lets lynch Kat to see if they are telling the truth

 

[xCleb]

thats why i said lets lynch Kat to see if they are telling the truth

Then why did you not bring this up when you said that?

 

[Dolby]

At this rate, I think Apple is telling the truth about his claim. There is no possible safe claim that Mafia can make for Detective, therefore we likely would have seen a counterclaim by now (I swear to god if Curry is Detective I'm gonna scream). Whether or not safe claims exist, this puts Apple as Town, and Kat/Byngo in a very questionable position.

I think we need to take the vote off of Apple and look toward another target.

No it doesn't, with respect to Trundle. That leaves two TIs still, and to many PRs. Assuming that Natty is legit jester, Trundle knows that oracle is real and assumes that there aren't two TIs and decides to use that claim to buy himself more time

 

[Seroja]

@Toad he was saying that he was playing poorly yesterday.... and he has AtE at one point or another, paling people idiots and what not.

he had been calling people idiots from the start of D1 lol.

 

[PandaDarling]

Then why did you not bring this up when you said that?

cause im not so good with explaining myself... hahaha no i didnt know there wasn't enough unique role names but i still believe they could be lying and we would be better off lyncing Kat to check rather than risking our possibly detective..... at worse we lynch a third party and not a possible town member, and if she's lying.... well we got another mafia.

 

[KermitTea]

i'm not sure i exactly follow the math:

17 town names + 3 third party names + 5 maf = 25 total.

20 players in which 5 are mafia, so if we give the 5 mafia each 2 names, its 15 + 5*2 = 25 which adds up.

if kat and byngo are telling the truth and safe claims exist, mafia could have psychopath as a safe claim.

 

[Arstotzkan]

thats why i said lets lynch Kat to see if they are telling the truth

lmao if you want to go for it but yall dumb if you do.

Protect my bae byngo if you do though <3

@Cleb Theres 2 main reasons I see for lack of CC:

1) No DT in game
2) DT feels comfortable in Trundle getting lynched and therefore doesnt want to reveal

Considering no safeclaims would townbalance the game quite a bit, I could see 1 being feasible.

 

[xCleb]

Well I guess we're gonna find out how to deal with things after this because Apple is at L+1 right now. He's gone no matter what.

 

[toadsworthy]

he had been calling people idiots from the start of D1 lol.

granted he did that in paper mario too though, I was looking at the differences between his roleclaim and tone there compared to here. There was a noticeable difference to me so thats what I posted about... mostly for myself to overcome the fact that I was voting for a claimed detective lol

 

[Arstotzkan]

Well I guess we're gonna find out how to deal with things after this because Apple is at L+1 right now. He's gone no matter what.

Its plurality. Vote count gives 0 ****s about majority.

 

[Dolby]

Also yeah, if maf has safeclaims, it's townie/third party safe claims. Inventor is nearly impossible to pull off, town RBer is taken, we know that there's an oracle. I suppose they could have a vig safeclaim, but that's an possible exception to the general rule

 

[xCleb]

if kat and byngo are telling the truth and safe claims exist, mafia could have psychopath as a safe claim.

Third-Party has to be treated as a liability to Town. It's essentially like potentially giving the Mafia an extra person, so I don't see that being the case.

- - - Post Merge - - -

if kat and byngo are telling the truth and safe claims exist, mafia could have psychopath as a safe claim.

Third-Party has to be treated as a liability to Town. It's essentially like potentially giving the Mafia an extra person, so I don't see that being the case.

 

[PandaDarling]

Its plurality. Vote count gives 0 ****s about majority.

i know why is everyone taking about majority...

 

[KermitTea]

@toads: my vote (and suspicion) on you is completely dependent on whether trundle flips maf or town.

if he's town i'm fairly certain you are maf.

 

[Arstotzkan]

i know why is everyone taking about majority...

Mafia on the forum Cleb's from uses exclusively majority, prob force of habit lol

 

[xCleb]

Mafia on the forum Cleb's from uses exclusively majority, prob force of habit lol

To be fair there hasn't been a game there since the one I hosted, and the MU game was also plurality, but the cycle ended if a majority was actually reached. I'm thinking more along those lines than AZ lines right now.

 

[PandaDarling]

welp... i hope we're right... i can't believe i don't feel right lynching Trundle, i always wanna lynch that guy.... haha