Mafia TBT Mini Mafia XIII: Bird Mafia II [Game Over - Town & Tsundere Win!]

[Minties]

Okay so the more I think about this, the more Ryan88's claim does not sit right with me.

Superpenguin is arguably the most creative host when it comes to role names and such. It doesn't really make sense that he would recycle a role used in Bird Maf 1 that was a mafia role. The role from that game, for those that can't find it:

Toucan (Janitor)
You are a Toucan. You are tired of eating Fruit Loops and want to feast on the blood of your enemies, and that's exactly what you will do during the night. One death each night, you can choose to be told the exact role of a player you killed. You will only be told their role if they are successfully killed. Only their alignment will be publicly be revealed, but you will know the specifics.

Why on earth did he randomly say:

I'm always a useless townie

All that does is narrow down the blue roles for mafia. He has been told TIME AND TIME AGAIN to not claim day one, yet he did in less than 12 hours of N0 being up. It always makes me suspicious when "townies" blurt out the fact that they're a townie very quickly with no reason real to. We weren't even considering him for lynch at that point.

Well I'll say it. I'm a toucan (Surviver)! I win if I'm alive at the end of the game!

Again, why would a survivor tell everyone that they are a survivor on day one? I can imagine if the votes were piling up on Ryan and it was a last ditch effort to not get lynched. I still think Ryan's scum team scolded him for claiming townie, probably because we would have asked for the specific role name and since the roles are unique, he would have been screwed. Claiming survivor is pretty gutsy if you're mafia and the only player I would expect that from would be Tom. After seeing that Tom claimed a third party role as well, I believe Tom is pulling the strings behind Ryan.

I would still like to vote for Ryan today and have Tom inspected tonight.

 

[epona]

Ughghghghgh I just typed out a post and then pressed previous thread button and now I gotta do it again and blah

I believe tsundere's claim. Nobody has counterclaimed as the third squid so I think we can write them off as 3rd party for now and not waste our time with them. Not to mention the OP does say that the squids count towards our numbers as town, so it's important we keep them alive, anyway.
I'm on the fence about Jeremy. He's being more vocal this game than he was in MM, but that game was very very recent and it's possible he's mafia and is switching up his playstyle so that he can't be pinned down to the playstyle he adopted as scum in that game. It's just offputting that he missed tsundere's claim because it's not as if their claim was confined to just one post; there were plenty of posts reacting and responding to the claim immediately after the day post went up, so I don't really see how Jer could have missed it. On the other hand, I doubt if he were scum that his scum buddies would let him propose such an obviously stupid mislynch, so it is possible it was just a lapse in concentration and a simple mistake.
I'm also not sure about Tom yet. It would be easy for us to write him off as a survivor right now and let him slip by because his claim matches up with tsundere's actions, and there's no way they're conspiring together outside the thread because this is a no PM game. However, we can't rule out the possibility that he's a mafia psychic. He was forced to out himself as a psychic to explain the 'inky mess' thing. If he claimed town psychic he'd basically be outing himself as a blue role and making himself a very potential target for mafia; so I think it's possible that he's either town trying not to get himself killed, or mafia trying to provide an explanation for why scum aren't killing him at night, given that he's got a confirmed ability. (This is all granted that mafia's win condition is to equal or outnumber town & squids, not including survivors)
I'm finding ryan's claim suspicious for the reasons minties outlined above. There was no need for him to claim townie if he were a survivor, but it's hard to come to a conclusion about anything ryan says because there doesn't seem to be any logic whatsoever behind any of it. Also wary about ShinySandwich claiming townie so early on too; this isn't IRC mafia, claiming townie hurts town and he should know better.

 

[Pathetic]

i suppose ryan could be a mafia Toucan, but as annie said whatever ryan says has no build.

odd how he claimed after tom..idk if i'll vote for him yet. otherwise we could lynch shiny and {maybe?} sid, and the dt inspects ryan.

- - - Post Merge - - -

o dammit i forgot about tom :|

 

[epona]

Tom, does your PM only include the action or does it say who sent in the action too? Eg., did you just get told you were inked last night, or were you told tsundere was the one who did it too?

 

[ryan88]

Why don't we lynch someone else and dt inspects me

 

[Lauren]

so people are claiming early in the game.

Both Ryan and Tom have claimed survivor? thats a bit off for me.. would there really be two?

Well apart from that i am stumped on who i want to make my case on for lynch, I'll read through again.

 

[Jeremy]

so people are claiming early in the game.

Both Ryan and Tom have claimed survivor? thats a bit off for me.. would there really be two?

Well apart from that i am stumped on who i want to make my case on for lynch, I'll read through again.

As Alice and Minties pointed out, Ryan is possibly lying.

 

[Sid2125]

I am more inclined to believe Tom over ryan. But ryan could still be telling the truth. It is odd that one has ability and the other doesn't. Maybe ryan does have an ability but doesn't want to reveal it, who knows.

 

[Chris]

Jeremy and Tina what are you guys up to? c:

Didn't know that about Tina (being sick) but that doesn't mean we should let her stay out of sight, she's quieter as scum!

At the time you posted these I was asleep.

I'm quiet in the beginning of every game, regardless of alignment, unless I have a strongly disagree with something. e.g. that no lynch in XCOM. But if you want me to share my thoughts so far, alright, I guess I could share my notes.

---

Composition of Mafia Team:

1. Mafia likely has 3 players.
2. Mafia could possibly have a long-time player on their team.
3. Mafia likely has 2 KP.
4. Mafia has an IRC / Unofficial mafia player on their team.
5. Option B: Is there even a 'team'?​

Spoiler: Composition of Mafia Team Notes

1. Mafia likely has 3 players.
Crunching the numbers, we have: two generic third party players, three third party players that count towards towns numbers, and fifteen leftover. If our knowledge of third party is correct (I highly doubt it is - but I'll get to that later) then we're looking at 18 players (inc squids) when working out the stats. Of 18 players, I believe 3 is the fairest number of mafia players. There could be four, especially if our claimed third party players are lying, but I'm placing my bets on three for now.

2. Mafia could possibly have a long-time player on their team.
Ashtot's death, and the third party claims so far, have me thinking this. If Tom is lying about his role, then he'd fill this gap. If ryan88 is lying about his role claim, then there is definitely a more experienced player on the mafia team. I'll explain this further below.

3. Mafia likely has 2 KP.
I don't believe that the mafia has 3KP. But it's hard to know who are mafia kills and who are potentially town/third party kills. However, the OP says that our win condition is to: Completely eliminate all killing roles not aligned with Town. This implies that there is a killing role as a third party player. I'm also leaning towards believing that one of the shots last night was third party on the grounds that I don't feel a town player would've used a shot night one.

4. Mafia has an IRC / Unofficial mafia player on their team.
The deaths were Dad, C r y s t a l, and Ashtot. This seems like an unusual combination to me. What does stand out though, is that Dad and C r y s t a l are both active in IRC mafia as well as unofficial mafia games. I feel like people who participate in these games are more likely to consider these players as Night 0 targets over more long-term players. Therefore, I feel that mafia is likely to contain at least one of these players:

• ryan88
• Natty
• alise
• ShinySandwich
• Sid2125

I've not included epona, tsundere, or others I feel could belong on this list but aren't likely to make a decision to kill based on the above.

Alternatively, I could be completely wrong and the kills were random targets at players the mafia expected wouldn't be protected. But if that's the case then why Dad and Ashtot? They could have been protected, so aren't they riskier targets if going on this idea?

I wrote the above, and then something else hit me. But for completeness sake I'll keep it in my post.

5. Option B: Is there even a team?
Our rival is The Ostrich. Note that this isn't plural. Every player has a unique role name. According to Ashtot's role PM, townies die if someone tries to kill the ostrich - doesn't that seem overpowered for a scum team?.

This theory also works with Alice and epona's roles: (a) the X 'in an ostrich costume'; (b) how they could flip a scum role when they die. Wouldn't this seem unbalanced if there is a full team of players who can flip scum + two millers?

This probably seems farfetched, but I think it makes sense that perhaps there could only be one red-aligned player in this game. It could explain the odd third party claims too. If this is the case, then I'm guessing this player must be lynched rather than killed via vig shot or potential SK.

If I'm wrong, then SP is probably laughing pretty hard right now.

---

Town Claims:

1. Alice and epona claiming Miller.

Spoiler: Original Thoughts

The interesting thing about their claims is the fact that they are saying that the miller role has a twist this game: that even upon death they will flip a scum role, which will hide their true alignment until the very end of the game. What bothers me about this is that it seems it puts town at a big disadvantage. So if this role is really in the game, why are there two of it in a twenty-person set-up? Keep in mind we also apparently have five players who will flip non-town/mafia colours, on top of a likely three mafia. I'm not saying it's impossible, but I'm not 100% buying it either.

If I'm right about mafia only having a single player, then I think I believe their claims.


2. ShinySandwich claiming Townie.

Spoiler: Original Thoughts

I'm inclined to believe ShinySandwich's claim at the moment. He claimed that he could die in place of the ostrich before Ashtot's role PM was revealed. Although I'm a little confused about how this works ? why does a townie dies in place of scum? Is ostrich the Godfather if all roles are unique? Or am I completely wrong about what the mafia actually is in this game? Because the miller role names certainly imply it's ostriches, but with the unique role names I'm baffled. {The result of this ramble became Point 5 in my Mafia Composition Notes above} ? I imagine the mafia team know this information. Based on the fact it was ShinySandwich who said this instead of an actual experienced player, I think I believe his claim of townie.

I believe this claim.

---

Third Party Claims:

1. Tom claiming Psychic.
I don't believe you're telling the truth about your role. However, I can't decide whether or not it's in towns best interest to fight you on this right now, so I'll leave it be.

2. 1. Ryan claiming Survivor.
The fact he claimed Townie right out the gate, only to admit when not even attacked that it's not his true role bothers me. He also felt the need to give a post in warning saying that he was going to reveal his role (odd - why not just do it if you're going to?) and then even after two players told him not to do so he proceeded to do it anyway. Then that claim: Toucan. Somehow, I feel it could work in the Survivor role based on the outcome of the first Bird mafia game - but at the same time who outs themselves as a Survivor!? I actually feel that the Toucan might actually be best matched with the role of a serial killer: wanting revenge for the results of the first game.

Bottom line: I don't completely trust either of their claims. I also believe we have unclaimed third party killing roles running around.

 

[Jeremy]

Tina, to add to your notes about mafia and the ostrich and what Ashtot said, my role is peacock, which is vanilla townie but I have a random chance of dying in the ostrich's place if they are supposed to die. This might as well be public because mafia would benefit by keeping me alive in place of other townies.

 

[radical6]

Wait, Tom is a survivor? Isnt he technically not a survivor? I mean just because his objective is to survive, but it doesn't a survivor make. Tom is a psychic, not a survivor. so let's keep the distinction. Mincing words isn't going to get us anywhere.

Well I mean both of their win cons are to survive. I know he's not the vanilla survivor role, but it's still really odd that one has powers and the other doesn't. Especially when both are trying to survive.

5. Option B: Is there even a team?
Our rival is The Ostrich. Note that this isn't plural. Every player has a unique role name. According to Ashtot's role PM, townies die if someone tries to kill the ostrich - doesn't that seem overpowered for a scum team?.

This probably seems farfetched, but I think it makes sense that perhaps there could only be one red-aligned player in this game. It could explain the odd third party claims too. If this is the case, then I'm guessing this player must be lynched rather than killed via vig shot or potential SK.

If I'm wrong, then SP is probably laughing pretty hard right now.

You know, this is actually possible. Maybe instead of a mafia team its 2 or 3 serial killers. 2 or 3 serial killer ostriches, lol. Now that I think about it that could possibly explain the weird choice of kills - assuming there was no vig shot, 2 SKs decided to kill strong players and the other chose to kill a random player. Your theory about IRC mafia/unoffical mafia players is also a good one, because one of those names mentioned could've chosen to kill Crystal. I feel like it's either 2 or 3 serial killers OR something like Karla's game. They are on the same team, but they don't know who each other are.

1. Tom claiming Psychic.
I don't believe you're telling the truth about your role. However, I can't decide whether or not it's in towns best interest to fight you on this right now, so I'll leave it be.

I mean I think he's somewhat telling the truth about his role, since his ability matches up with what I did. However I think he's more likely to be third party - he's been very careless this game and has been joking around the whole time. If he was mafia I would think he would try to keep up his annoying monotone act like he usually does. If he was town he obviously would be trying to contribute more.

2. 1. Ryan claiming Survivor.
The fact he claimed Townie right out the gate, only to admit when not even attacked that it's not his true role bothers me. He also felt the need to give a post in warning saying that he was going to reveal his role (odd - why not just do it if you're going to?) and then even after two players told him not to do so he proceeded to do it anyway. Then that claim: Toucan. Somehow, I feel it could work in the Survivor role based on the outcome of the first Bird mafia game - but at the same time who outs themselves as a Survivor!? I actually feel that the Toucan might actually be best matched with the role of a serial killer: wanting revenge for the results of the first game.

Well to be honest Ryan will always claim no matter what. I think even if 2 people told him not to he would anyway as town. Though then maybe as scum he wouldn't care about claiming if it would negatively affect town - because he isn't town. But I don't think he would care about that as town either. But yeah if Tom is telling the truth about his win condition, then how come Ryan doesn't have any powers?

I still say we lynch Alise or Shiny! Well Alise is starting to try to help but Shiny should post or he's on the chopping block because I seriously don't want to deal with an inactive later! Also with Tina's IRC Mafia player theory Shiny is a very likely candidate... He wanted to kill Crystal all the time in IRC mafia. I think he wanted to kill her this game too. That could explain (if it wasn't a vig shot) the odd choice of killing Crystal.

 

[Byngo]

I can never win. I'm called quiet and then I'm called too talkative. This happens in every game too. What do you people want?

You were being quiet - but now you're posting more so applause to you.

I'm going to read the past couple pages a little more throughly later because I just got up. So yeah (ﾉ◕ヮ◕)ﾉ*:･ﾟ✧

 

[BlueLeaf]

Tina, to add to your notes about mafia and the ostrich and what Ashtot said, my role is peacock, which is vanilla townie but I have a random chance of dying in the ostrich's place if they are supposed to die. This might as well be public because mafia would benefit by keeping me alive in place of other townies.

Are you implying that only some Townies have a random chance of dying? That would definitely balance the game a bit.

Thoughts on ryan: He claimed Survivor, and I didn't really care about his claim because all they need to do is stay alive. But after reading through the thread fully (I was playing IRC Mafia don't judge me), I realized no one had pressured him to claim. Not to mention how there's two Stay-Alive-To-Win roles, just seems weird, why does one "survivor(Psychic)" have an advantage over the other? We told him 10000000x not to claim, but he still claims. :/

Thoughts on Tom: What he said was believable enough, but I'm nervous he could be hiding a killing power. For now, I think we should leave him be.

Thoughts on Jer: He was being a bit finger-pointy, but he is proving that he wants to get more active, so I'll leave him be for now.

Thoughts on Alise: Same as Jer, without the finger-pointy thing.

Thoughts on Shiny: I can't really say anything about his posts (there's not a lot iirc), but the IRC theory is a pretty good theory. Crystal didn't really suspect a lot of people, so she didn't really pose any threat to Mafia. Which means she was either a random kill or an IRC kill by Shiny. We can't let him slide by either way, like in the Mafia game where he was modkilled and flipped scum. I forgot what that game was.

Rest of the IRC theory people: I kind of doubt Ryan's team would let him orchestrate the kills, maybe that's just me (I still suspect him for other things tho). I don't really know about Natty, elise, and Sid.

Tl;dr I wouldn't mind voting for either Ryan88 or Shiny.

 

[Chris]

I feel like it's either 2 or 3 serial killers OR something like Karla's game.

This is what I'm thinking as well. I'm certain there is at least one third party killing role in this game, at least.

I mean I think he's somewhat telling the truth about his role, since his ability matches up with what I did. However I think he's more likely to be third party - he's been very careless this game and has been joking around the whole time. If he was mafia I would think he would try to keep up his annoying monotone act like he usually does. If he was town he obviously would be trying to contribute more.

Oh, I do agree he's telling the truth to some extent - I just don't believe everything he's said. But as I mentioned before, I'm not sure if it's town's best interests to push this further right now.

I still say we lynch Alise or Shiny! Well Alise is starting to try to help but Shiny should post or he's on the chopping block because I seriously don't want to deal with an inactive later! Also with Tina's IRC Mafia player theory Shiny is a very likely candidate... He wanted to kill Crystal all the time in IRC mafia. I think he wanted to kill her this game too. That could explain (if it wasn't a vig shot) the odd choice of killing Crystal.

ShinySandwich revealed information about the townie role prior to it being confirmed in the day post, so I believe him. However, you brought up a good name: alise. I actually believe she could be third party. ryan88 claimed Toucan as a third party role, when this was a scum role in the first mafia game. The other scum birds were parrot and woodpecker. And guess what role alise has hinted having?

I suppose we could believe Alice's and epona's miller claims for now. I can't..really say anything on this matter because I'll be sounding like a parrot.

Also, when you (what I assume was just playfully) brought up her name earlier her responses were quite aggressive. Look at posts #295 and #313 as a reference. The playful attitude she had in Majora's Mask has vanished.

 

[epona]

And guess what role alise has hinted having?

Check out the tags, too.

 

[BlueLeaf]

I forgot about that parrot post (it was written pretty early on), this isn't the first time someone hinted their role in a post. If a Woodpecker decides to claim (for some reason) then I'll definitely believe the third party thing.

I'd still like for Shiny to start posting more, whether or not he's suspected.

 

[radical6]

This is what I'm thinking as well. I'm certain there is at least one third party killing role in this game, at least.

The way the OP states the town win con makes it sound like there are multiple third party SKs. That could explain the huge amount of third party roles anyway.

ShinySandwich revealed information about the townie role prior to it being confirmed in the day post, so I believe him. However, you brought up a good name: alise. I actually believe she could be third party. ryan88 claimed Toucan as a third party role, when this was a scum role in the first mafia game. The other scum birds were parrot and woodpecker. And guess what role alise has hinted having?

Though if ShinySandwich was an ostrich, he would definitely know about it. But thinking about it some more then you're probably right.. He probably wouldn't mention that as scum. But maybe he's smarter than he lets on. fk I need to go unvote lmao. That still doesn't explain who killed Crystal though. Alise probably would've gone after a strong player, but I guess there's still the possibility she wanted to kill Crystal for jokes. Natty perhaps would kill Crystal but it's really hard for me to get a read on her.

Also, I can't tell if she was hinting her own role or she was making a reference to how she was also a parrot in the first Bird Mafia...

Also, when you (what I assume was just playfully) brought up her name earlier her responses were quite aggressive. Look at posts #295 and #313 as a reference. The playful attitude she had in Majora's Mask has vanished.

Nah I was serious when I brought up her name. The first time I could see how you thought it was playfully, but the 2nd time I was very much serious about her. I do find it odd that she was so defensive, while when she's accused as town she is more relaxed I guess? I'll try to see if I can draw comparisons on how she defended herself this game and how she defends herself as mafia. I think when she was accused in Majora's Mask she was more relaxed and calm about it, and I don't recall her being so aggressive. I remember in a past game where she was mafia and I accused her she was very defensive about it. I can't seem to find it though but she made like a large ass post with excuses. Not to mention I don't believe her "well..um..idk i dont know whos mafia" claim. You have to think about something so far. At least as town she tries to join in the discussion. This game? She's been sliding by like how she was in Partner Mafia.

 

[BlueLeaf]

Elise was also kind of aggressive as scum in IRC Mafia, possibly a connection there.

 

[Byngo]

Okay here's a post about my opinions of everyone:

Tom: It's obvious that he's telling the truth about his rolename - but like Tina has been saying, he could be lying about what he can do. I've already mentioned this multiple times: I think we should leave him for now and worry about other things. Oh also your over-usage of smileys is kind of annoying. Keep an eye on him.

Ryan88: He claims to be a toucan (survivor). At first I believed him because I didn't think he could come up with that himself - but I wasn't even thinking of the fact that there is a scum team (???), but Tina has brought up a good point that there very well could be only 1 red aligned player. If that's the case, I would definitely believe Ryan's claim. I'm so-so about him. I'd be willing to lynch him if we can't agree on anyone else.

Alise: Don't know how I feel about her. To me it seems like she's being her usual self - spammy but trying to contribute. I guess the only thing that stands out as odd is that she hinted at being a Parrot? She's moderately sus

Jer: Was being quiet and then got active. It's weird that he made it look like Tsundere was scummy looking when everyone knows they're a squid. Somehow he claims to have missed that even though it was mentioned multiple times but w/e. Moderately sus

Minties: Dunno how I feel about her either. She's pushing for Ryan88 to be lynched, and I don't necessarily agree with that but she has some points nonetheless. Not really sus of her.

BlueLeaf: Okay BL has been striking me as odd this game. Like in Cell Mafia II, he was the top poster like he is now and he was just... Really active. I know it's stupid to find someone suspicious just because they're a top poster BUT it just reminds me of how he was in Cell Mafia II. Taking a due from Tom, it's a "gut feeling".

ShinySandwich: He's been really quiet and hasn't done squat. He claims to be a townie which I kind of believe, but could you post some, Shiny???

Dolby: He's been very quiet as well - but he claims he's going to make an "analytical" post soon so I'll wait for that.

Sid2125: Same as Shiny. They've been pretty quiet but have posted /some/. I don't really know what I think of them.

Cory and Tina. I don't really have reads about either of them. Tsundere, Epona and Alice are cleared in my opinion.

So like I said, I'd be okay with lynching Ryan88 if no other better candidates surface. Wow this post that probably isn't even going to be that contributive took me 40 minutes to write. :/

 

[BlueLeaf]

BlueLeaf: Okay BL has been striking me as odd this game. Like in Cell Mafia II, he was the top poster like he is now and he was just... Really active. I know it's stupid to find someone suspicious just because they're a top poster BUT it just reminds me of how he was in Cell Mafia II. Taking a due from Tom, it's a "gut feeling".

I basically have three reasons.

1. I don't have anything else better to do, so I find myself refreshing the page a lot.
2. I know I'm Town, so I find it easier to post my opinions without worrying too much, while in Cell Mafia, I posted my opinions while worrying a lot (as you can probably tell in scum chat).
3. School is coming up soon, so I'd like to be as active as I can for now. I'd much rather be Active ---> Less Active, instead of Less Active ---> Inactive.