Mafia TBT Switch Mafia (Long Days and Nights)- ENDGAME @Page 120- Town Wins

[Dolby]

I'm around and reading to catch up tonight. I see more walls between Evan and Dolby and Dolby is going more nitpick case > analysis then he's probably scum if my Hydra with him gave me any insight on how he solves as town. Certain people have ghosted and I'm a hypocrite for saying that but Punchy in particular just parked on an Antonio vote and shouldn't be given too much of a pass here.

Let me actually read though.

EXACTLY
AS
I
PREDICTED

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Also Punchy moves his vote

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*moved

 

[Geoni]

Heck at first I was about to suss punchy but he has good points and I'm hella surprised punchy change his style for past few months as of now I'm slowly having doubts on antonio. So I give a mix of null scumish on Antonio and TL on Punchy because how genuinely points out and explain towards the players

As much I wanna TL both Dolby and dad im too scared heck I dunno how dad plays as scum

Vanessa's post screams TL imo genuine post

Evans post still screams scumlean for me cuz his post sounds forced af

Delp is deds (I have a feeling theyre vanilla townie)

I can imagine evan/farobi/Antonio scum team and trying to stay distant one another its just my opinion

Tell me more about this Vanessa townlean, I'm curious.

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Yeesh I was 100% joking with both of those posts

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(Sorry about work though, please take time to rest and recover mentally and emotionally)

That's not 100% at all lmao, you were casting doubt on a reason I can't be aligned with Antonio here by bringing up a past game except I looked at the timing and I was online at the time so you not taking ownership of an actual meta-read like this makes me scumread you. Even moreso if Antonio flips town.

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Anyways I'm wearing of unravel bandwagoning, in the past couple pages she basically just...agreed with Dolby's points about Evan and agreed with Dolby's points about Farobi

@unravel can you explain why you want to TL Dad and Dolby?

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Fair enough, although he's fooled everyone in the last two games which is why I felt the TL was a little hasty and uncautious

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You got that right

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I'll say it: while I agree with some of your points against Evan I also think you're cherrypicking. The whole post in general came off to me as trying too hard to find reasons to sus him. I know you always make big posts but I can't remember if you're always this tunnely, I need to cross-reference (and I also need to cross-reference Punchy and Antonio still but I'm too lazy)

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However I also don't like the tone of Farobi's post and I don't think it likely that Dolby and Farobi are teamed

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Evan's post #231 reads as pretty genuine to me. I don't agree with his reasons for sussing Damniel (I don't think he was genuinely sussing me, I think he was reaction testing) and if that's his only reason for sussing Damniel (maybe he can clarify that?) that's kind of iffy. But other than that I'm honestly getting town-ish vibes from him

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In this confusingly worded post I should clarify I am talking about Evan sussing Damniel for sussing me

When you say cross-reference here do you mean comparing this game to a past scum or town game of theirs? If you're too lazy to do Punchy and Antonio why would you even set up the expectation that you'd do it for Dolby? That's a much harder player. Not that I'm telling you not to because I'd be interested in seeing the work.

The unravel point in this post just feels like an easy read to have on her and justify unease with, not that I disagree with it.

 

[Geoni]

Sorry friends yesterday was a busy day. A week is a long time for a day, so I'll check up every now and then, but probably won't take the time to make big analytical posts until later. I'm not going to vote until at at least a few days since there's no time pressure.

Here are some comments I wanted to make before:



While for the most part I agreed/saw the reasoning behind his other reads, I'm iffy on Dad's read on me. I think we've only ninja'd twice (for really obvious questions like Temptations's null post on punchy, and why unravel thinks Farobi spams). I'm not sure how he thought we have the same thought process, I think we agree a lot but not necassary think similarly. I'm a bit more curious on how he thinks so.


In general, I'm not a fan of Temptations behavior. His long punchy post that ultimately led to a null read is super off putting. He seems to have this conflict with punchy, yet not making a clear/strong stance on him. And when you get down to it, his larger posts have a lot of fluff (making little jokes/using literature devices) yet little core substance. He also claims to be able to control his play-style and not have meta, which only extremely skilled players could possibly do (I've yet to see this). In this game, he could either be a townie who doesn't have a good feel for the game, or just scum making wishy washy posts to seemingly contribute. I'd like for him to get off of punchy and analyze other players.

Punchy is being a fool btw. I can't really tell if most of his posts are serious as he acts like he's making huge revelations. Which in actuality he's making light pushes and hopes that people who agree and elaborate for him. He is either bad town or TP.

I would like to see them stop tunneling each other and move on to contribute more. I could see either one being scum but I'd place my bet on temptations.



Okay so I haven't played in like 2 years and have only played with a few people like you, dad, Dolby, and Jacob. As I'm not aware of what most people's metas are, my reads are based on this game.

I do agree with people about Farobi being sus over his inactivity. Out of all the people (excluding Delphine), he has made the least effort to contribute. This game has been going on for almost a week now, so he should have had plenty of time to at least do something.

I'm looking at Dolby in a better light now. He's commented more since I last posted my thoughts about him and I think most of them are reasonable enough.

As of now I think Farobi and Temptations are the most scummy people so far (yea ik others stated this before I did). Unless either post more and clear themselves up, I'm likely to vote them.

I'll post more thoughts on the other players. But I'll need to look over some things again. Expect that post within the next couple of days

Just two quick thoughts here:

In regards to what you said about me here: I think that as scum you don't point out/question things like the nullread moment or Farobi spam comment and in general you ask a lot of questions bit by bit which to me indicates you are trying to figure out how people are thinking and playing and I more or less have this approach as well.

Also why are you saying if Punchy is scum that he's specifically SK?

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You were inactive for quite a bit and then claim you're the punching bag for mafia because people are making you "the only person to get behind" when in reality, people have been susing me along with others throughout the game. Just because it was a "passing statement" doesn't make it excuseable and everyone should ignore it. You're merged statement feels like a cover up.

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That...actually makes some since. Still disappointed that people have to call you out for you to explain your claims instead of you explain why you are saying this or that in your main point.

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What points are you agreeing with exactly? Didn't you call out punchy for his actions earlier in the game:

I like this post a lot actually. First paragraph matches my thoughts on Farobi although I would call what came after the merge there a cover up as much as I'd call it a 'this is why I didn't do ___' moment. Also I'll add that it doesn't amount to an entire excuse if only SK could kill, it can't be an excuse for either so or mafia really, but especially the latter.

Second paragraph just satisfies me because that tone feels unconfident in a scumread of Punchy and comes off authentically uneasy if that makes sense.

I'm not sure why you'd sus unravel for this, you can still townread someone even if you call their points illogical and overthought. If anything my question for unravel here is why she thinks Punchy explains himself well because it took a lot of us to finally get him to clarify some of his points.

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I wasnt bandwagoning I had an eye on Farobi from the start

@unravel can you explain why you want to TL Dad and Dolby?

What I mean was as much I wanna TL them but it almost sound too good to be true if both of them are really town tbh

(Net took me really long time to send this)

This is a shallow read at this point, Bianca is a pure randomizer and Dolby and I have both been town quite often in micro games lately.

I mean it probably is correct to assume that only one of us is town because I'm scumreading Dolby as of this part if my catch up. It's just that I don't like the reason for your assumption.

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Omk if you think I'm so scummy you want to snapvote me for everything where is your actual reasoning as to why I am scummy

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Antonio why, this day doesn't even end for like a week

It's spread throughout my responses to some posts of yours but I just dislike moments like 'this post is piggybacking' and how your reads can be like...safe things to find sus in, you're not really campaigning thus far for who you want lynched and just seeding here and there while others campaign. Unless that changes on page 8 (40 posts per page here). Like there's literally an example of what I'm talking about in this very post I'm quoting here.

 

[Geoni]

These are my various thoughts on people. This will both indirectly and sometimes directly address some of the points raised against me or my analysis, or simply supersede prior analysis I have already given.

Speaking of Jacob, the only positions he stated before dying were scumleans on unravel and me, and a townlean on dad. I don't believe he gave a reason on unravel but he didn't like my "dad fixation," which I have already addressed before.

Townleans: Punchy, Dad, Damniel, Temptations
Null: unravel
Scumleans: Farobi, Vampnessa, Dolby
Nobody cares because they'll die anyway: Delphine. Probably vanilla townie R I P

Possible scumteams in order of likelihood: Dolby/Vanessa, Vampnessa/Farobi, Dolby/Vampnessa/Farobi, Farobi/unravel, Delphine/some poor chap or lass in my scumreads stuck with an inactive.

Damniel has proven himself imo. What I felt was sketchy at the start has been superseded by generally solid participation and content as time has gone on. And I don't see him as super compatible with Vampnessa or Farobi, could maybe see him with Dolby but I think Vampnessa is a much more likely teammate, which I explain later on.

Punchy's doing everything I would expect him to do as town.

Dad and Vampnessa are wholly incompatible and likely on different teams and I'm betting, for now, that Dad is the town. Call it buddying all you want but I really don't see scummy behavior from him.

Vampnessa, on the other hand, strikes me as fairly scummy. I said she was an easy target because she does come under a lot of pressure most games, whatever her alignment. But after seeing her behavior and interactions with Dolby in particular, I feel I may have figured this out.



This beaut right here smacks of straddling lines. "Yeah I think you may have some good points on Evan but you're going too hard lol just chill bro." Like wtf? Seems very much like she's trying to gain my confidence by putting up a facade of disagreement with Dolby, but also trying to not put off Dolby too much by saying he has good points. Like really if you think his points are correct then you should probably be voting me by now, not reacting like "oh they may be right but it's a reach." Really? If it's a reach then the points are not right to begin with. The phrasing makes little sense.

Honestly Dolby/Vampnessa as as scumteam is not only terrifying but likely, given just how much blatantly fake interaction I see between them. It seems pretty similar to what Dolby and I pulled off as scums in Hunger Games mafia, where we carefully tiptoed between agreement and disagreement throughout the game (ie not getting confrontational but avoiding each other almost), then when the time was right just start tunnelling the **** out of each other. Vampy and Dolby obviously haven't gotten to the "tunnelling the **** out of each other" part since it's early game, but there is definitely something weird going on between them. Makes perfect sense why Dolby would latch on to me and practically ignore Vampy in his analysis and sneak her into his nulls.

Dolby's line about "townreading Jacob ain't gonna make me townread you" does feel overly dismissive and antagonistic when I knew my point was lameass anyway. It was a throwaway "RIP Jacob" line and I didn't want to air my townlean hunch until after N0.



Yeah I can? Whether you think it's right or not, I don't think you can completely discount the logic. Punchy's read is likely wrong; therefore Antonio is likely town. Frankly it's hard to find much Antonio has done that is directly town-beneficial but I am basing my read on instinct and what I know about how he plays. Punchy was just pointing things out that, in a vacuum may make him look scummy, but entirely lines up with what I know about Antonio's town play. Sorry if you don?t like that but *shrugs*

Vampnessa is technically right in that Dolby does seem to make some good points that, when ignoring context of this game, makes me look bad. However she lacks the reasoning/does not go the extra step to actually form a conclusion about me, and that sets off my alarm bells. And my conclusion is this: I think it's pretty clear Dolby is trying to off me because he knows I'm really town. And since he's always good at making a case for practically anything, he dove through what I "usually" do to that end. Problem is that I'm waking up to that reality and not everyone else really believes him either given how tunnelly and reachy it is. I?m focusing more on scums this game given how there?s less of them to go around, and the towns are frankly rather obvious and half of them (Punchy, Temptations) are not playing very optimally in my view because they?re wrapped around the axle trying to destroy each other.

Now I know everyone and their grandma is going to paint this as me OMGUSing Dolby because he susses me, and Dolby is going to look at how much more analysis I gave on who?s scum vs. who?s town. But I do think that him being scum is a palpable explanation for the Dolby/Vampnessa behavior and I need to flesh out my thought process why. If I was really OMGUS'ing then I'd have scumread him after he started diatribing against me.

The one hole in my Dolby read is how he's interacting with Farobi atm. I don't see much reason for scum!Dolby to off Farobi OVER me right now, especially given how much Dolby's focused on me. This opens up the possibility of Farobi not being scum and there being only two scums on the maf team, OR perhaps Dolby just views Farobi as too big of a liability and would use the death as cred to get me out the following vote? Not sure. Either way I think that with the lack of a clear town leader post-Jacob, Dolby's trying to slyly fill that void.

Farobi/unravel is a fairly unlikely pairing in my sight due to them going after each other. It doesn't feel coordinated or distancing since unravel has been casting doubt on Farobi ever since he was inactive at the start. Unravel remains a big fat null for me tbh. If they were really a team, I can't see them pulling off such distancing through the course of the entire game. My farobi read is admittedly the most piggybacky of my positions but I generally agree that what he's done so far has just been blatantly meh and trying to please everyone instead of actually trying to find scums.

The problem is, are there two scums or three? In a game of 11, with the switching powers maf has, an 8-3 split vs. a 9-2 split...honestly both are feasible.

My vote is probably going on Vampnessa or Farobi this phase, leaning much more towards Vampnessa though. And when she flips scum, you can bet Dolby should be next.

I?ve been writing this awhile so if you want me to address anything in particular, feel free to hmu/quote relevant portions.

GOAT post of the game thus far tbh, I'll unpack the thoughts/concerns I agree with (there are a lot) later but I'm on mobile. I think we more or less share our top suspects: Vanessa, Farobi, and Dolby which is why I'm willing to set aside earlier suspicion on this slot.

 

[Antonio]

I'm not sure why you'd sus unravel for this, you can still townread someone even if you call their points illogical and overthought. If anything my question for unravel here is why she thinks Punchy explains himself well because it took a lot of us to finally get him to clarify some of his points.

But, I didn't sus unravel for it!? I was just curious on what points he was referring to and what changed from his earlier statements on punchy.

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I'm trying to be wary about this because I don't want to completely sheep to anything, but I do find Evan incredibly scummy, from reasons listed in Dolby's post and because he townreads antonio JUST BECAUSE HE THINKS MY READ IS WRONG. I do want Antonio's opinions on others, especially Evan, Dad, Farobi, and Dolby.

So, how is that more scummy then all of the stuff you have accused me? Also, it feels like you are just copying Dolby's statement because you don't have any real opinions on your own besides on me when someone asks you to clarify your statement. Here's Dolby statement:

“Punchys read is wrong, therefore Antonio town” IS NOT a read

I feel like if Dolby didn't say that, you wouldn't be saying that about Evan. It feels like you are just following in Dolby's footsteps.

Anyways, I'll provide opinions on everyone else once Christmas has ended and I'm feeling all better. It's been a busy week.

 

[Geoni]

You had to post that literally as I walked out the door

One thing I will say though while I?m on my phone because I don?t really feel that I have the energy to go into the other stuff is that I can?t discount the logic, because there is none. Your TR on Antonio is baseless and now you feel the need to double down on it regardless of alignment. ?Punchys read is wrong, therefore Antonio town? IS NOT a read

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He?s talking about his TL on you

Why is that read of his the one thing you felt like bringing up out of all the major concerns analyzed in Evan's post here?

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I have stated my reason on why people should vote for me. I'm just frickin pissed at the way punchy is playing this game and if my lynch proves him wrong, then that'll provide a lot more information for everyone else who's still alive. I'll remove my vote for now.

Also, my win condition is when all threats to town have been eliminated with one town at least standing. Me actually voting for myself isn't again my wincon.

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Also, if Farobi does flip as scum doesn't that mean Punchy's "gut" feeling that he is to town will be highly suspicious. Also, everyone is scum reading farobi but people are forgetting punchy read on him, for his reqs only.

I feel like you've done something like this (self voting) in a game before I just can't put my finger on what game it was and what alignment you were.

 

[Dolby]

Why is that read of his the one thing you felt like bringing up out of all the major concerns analyzed in Evan's post here?

I did not address it first because it was most important, I addressed it because it was short enough that I could do it justice at the time

 

[Geoni]

Does mafia know who SK is?

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Let me google before I ask, sorry.

Tempted to derpclear this.

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Btw, Punchy dropped his Farobi TL before you pointed it out

It?s not logical because the entire basis of Evans thoughts is because it?s not based on your behavior, but on the behavior of a guy who he believes is not lafia

You're tunneling in on -one- moment of odd behavior and that's really not town you. Town you would still hold onto a read like this but move on to keep solving other potential scum.

 

[Dolby]

If I'm working with a Dad/Evan scum world I think that their remaining teammate has to be within Evan's townleans. There's no way that he's voting Farobi if they're teammed, Vanessa he's tunneling despite not voting, and he'd jump on the first opportunity to TR Unravel, yet he left them at null despite them being consensus at the time. Personally think that Temptations and Gavin have the greatest equity (most people besides Dad and Temptations have something that makes me think that the team doesn't exist), and Temptations is also consistent with Dad!scum

Full explanation pending

 

[Geoni]

Just as a reference. At this point though me, Dad, and unravel were already after him

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Because I?ve had to justify it three times already today,have the same stance, and I think that the lack of logic is pretty self-evident

>Has played 100 games
>Still finds lack of logic a solid scumtell

Alright.

 

[Antonio]

The interaction between Dolby and Evan has a lot to look at (I need more time to since I haven't been paying attention before tbh), but I wanted to further explain who I think we should lynch and why

Temptations- I still hold high suspicion for him. He is either anti-town, or just a bad player. While, for the most part, his posts contribute little to nothing, he has done two things that are extremely off putting.

In general, he has given very few reads. Only really talking to and about Farobi and Punchy. There are a lot of interactions between Punchy and him, most of which seem to be jokes. However, when he makes a giant and extravaganza read on him, he only ends it in a null read. With few other reads, this just shows that he has/is willing to give little insight on the players of the game. While his presence is there, his contribution is not, which is telling of a safer and quieter play.

And with the self vote. As I mentioned before, an intentional mislynch is a terrible idea.



The excuse he gives in that it was to "prove punchy's alignment" is also such a bad reason that I believe the self vote was for another motive. It might have been WIFOM to get suspicion off of him. And it appears to have worked.



The sentence above is oxymoronic. He admitted that a self lynch is not the best idea, yet still would do it after knowing it is a terrible idea. In the sentence below, it appears that he is trying to turn such simple wording against me as an act of defensiveness.

He is either anti-town or very very very bad town, and I'm inclined to believe it's the former. Someone did bring up the point that he could be SK, which might make sense as I don't really see him aligned with anyone yet for a scum team. He does ask this:


Which could be seen as trying to townslip since it's a question that can be easily looked up (as he soon admits)

You actually make some interesting points and I would like to go over your points if you don't mind.

1. "anti-town or bad player" because I want to sacrifice myself - Even though I'm not the best player in this game, I felt like this would be a good play tbh or at least at that moment. I was just irritated at punchy and how no one is barely acknowledging that his actions seem scummy. I have stated my reasons for him and even if the results were Null, the reasons shouldn't be ignored. I'm not sure how to describe it but I felt like Vanessa in that game she mentioned earlier, where she was yelling that Farobi was scum in the obs chat but like no one playing the game noticed her. It was all in the moment...

My best idea that I could come up with was to sarcrifce myself in the sake of proving a point. Doing this does not go against my win con, as previously stated. Plus, It's Day 1. Me being voting off would hardly hurt the chance of winning (60% (4m/6t) -> 55(4m/5t)) and hopefully when I am lynched, people would actually look into punchy and realize That his gut is not the truth. If you don't believe I'm town, then vote for me!!! I'm still down for it.

Also, you believe farobi is more scum to me but what about punchy automatically reading farobi (who was queit for a bit) based on his reqs and saying he is good based off his "gut"? Isn't that all suspicious to you?

Anyways, it's getting late and christmas is Tommorow. I won't be on that day so I hope everyone have a Happy Holidays. I would be changing my vote from Null to scum on Punchy (if I haven't already said this) and will be voting for him duirng day 1.

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God, the grammar mistakes. ;-;

 

[Geoni]

I forgot my tablet so RIP to in depth analysis until later but what I really liked about 259 is that Evan is very close to me in the tierlist and we have a lot of the same reasons for townreading or suspecting people. Really the only thing I would change is put Punchy in null alongside unravel.That and Gavin can be there too.

I've already brought up that Damniel improved himself after an entry I wasn't a fan of by questioning a lot of things I would expect a town trying to solve people would question.

Antonio I'm not sure I exactly share the same justification for but I looked back and Antonio isn't the selfvoter type as scum unless he's straight giving up but that's not what's going on here. Also Antonio is really unhinged especially with the night 0 stuff.

Evan I've moved to townleaning if just because our reads align so well.

Unravel is null because she is questioning some things but it's not as significant as it is with Damniel and if there's a skill I can see either her or Farobi being one.

Punchy is also kind of aligning with Dolby's reads too much for my tastes and as much and he stays vague until pressed to explain better. Didn't like how he dialed back on townleaning the rqs for Farobi and how he's null because Punchy admits he isn't paying attention. He seems to be working with the majority now which makes me unsure about association with Farobi.

Gavin is at least not SK but has only done rqs, the most true of these nulls.

Dolby, Vanessa, and Farobi need their own post but I'll clarify that what's goat about Evan's post (259) here is that he explored my scumleans in terms of how they could associate and both Dolby and Vanessa aren't analyzing each other using subtle excuses.

Dolby and Farobi being teamed here is its own demon.

Not sure I agree with stuff from either side of you and Dolby's back and forth after this post though, as much as I like it. Both of you feel like you're blowing up certain statements and reaching with them, such as Dolby with the 'your townread of Antonio based on Punchy being wrong is illogical' thing or Evan saying Jacob was in any way a town leader'. Oh and don't you dare with 'godfather'. Next time somebody calls Dolby or I a 'godfather' in reference to human balancing I'm going to whack them.

 

[Biancasbotique]

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT:

People are wondering the mechanics of the lynch: For this game, true majority is in effect:

Difference between Majortiy and Plurality:

1. Majority- Person being lynched must reach 50 or more percent of total votes. In case of tie, the lynch will be declared no lynch.

2. Plurality- Person just needs to get the most votes at end of the lynch to be lynched. In case of tie, person achieving the most votes first will be ousted.

My mechanic for this game is a True Majority: In case of a tie, no lynch will be declared. The person being lynched must also achieve 50% or more of the vote. For today's vote, 5 votes or more is needed for the lynch

 

[Damniel]

I don’t have my laptop with me currently, so I can’t reply to Temptations response, but since it’s a majority lynch, we need to reach an agreement.

There’s A LOT of people who haven’t voiced their main suspicions for today, and it’s important that you guys voice your opinions. (Giving GhostKid a break). Ik today is a holiday but we only have little over a day left so pls post

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Okay it’s actually just Vampnessa, Dad, and Farobi who still need to indicate who they want to vote for

 

[Ghostkid]

actually im gonna resign so i can enjoy the holiday with my switch because knowing me id forget to check here anyway if i get ingrossed in something

 

[Damniel]

actually im gonna resign so i can enjoy the holiday with my switch because knowing me id forget to check here anyway if i get ingrossed in something

Kinda a jerk-move to commit to something and then drop out to do something else, but okay

 

[Ghostkid]

Kinda a jerk-move to commit to something and then drop out to do something else, but okay

my internet is getting cut off on the first anyway so its not like i was gonna be here the whole time anyway

 

[Damniel]

my internet is getting cut off on the first anyway so its not like i was gonna be here the whole time anyway

I’m not really sure why you’d sign up then since this is a long game but alright

 

[Ghostkid]

I’m not really sure why you’d sign up then since this is a long game but alright

bianca asked me to fill in and i did i felt obligated to

 

[Damniel]

bianca asked me to fill in and i did i felt obligated to

Yea but if you know you can’t actually commit and play the game, you shouldn’t fill in and told her that