Really? I write some great slogans and just...crickets? I even wrote a whole poem! Much better than that vogon crap, too.
You know, I had a thought. What if I write a poem or two for your campaign, in exchange for your item vote going to me... I mean, that's a pretty good price for high quality slogans, poems, and catchprases...
realtalk now though. put the events of night 1 in the context of the whole picture surrounding it. night 2 can be entered differently if townies play well rn, which will be to their benefit
Post automatically merged:
how do we want to enter night 2? imo, not loke we did night 1
Post automatically merged:
I won't say in which post that gets explained, but it's been explained
in regards to the item, i now believe the item is best used for mechanical reasons. As such, I am more inclined to give it to kiko or dolby than betsy. while I understand her perspective that she trusts herself the most with it, it’s a self interested play objectively
this game has devolved to just a political election. reminds me of a game i need to read up on tonight for a players sake
in regards to the item, i now believe the item is best used for mechanical reasons. As such, I am more inclined to give it to kiko or dolby than betsy. while I understand her perspective that she trusts herself the most with it, it’s a self interested play objectively
key assumption is one mafia, likely does not have the ability to role block
Honestly reading Dan's posts early ignoring the Betsy stuff I like them way more. #92 is a prime example of something that I am more fine with now that earlier. There isn't going to be much said that I haven't talked about before before post 200 beyond general vibes.
Usually the d1 elim is to generate more info (based on how people vote) and also it's the only way we have to take out maf. It's frustrating with only 7 players and not knowing how many are maf. If you have a good case for no elim, make the case, but usually the d1 elim does at least provide info to work with d2.
Could you share it now? If there are specific reasons to townread someone, please share!
I think Raven said they would be on evenings. I know you didn't ask me, but I'm holding off on raven until they post more this evening.
Looking back I think this is a towny post, the middle section in particular I think is towny. The ending section isn't so much towny as it's not sus for not jumping on the inactive just yet.
Dan going all out and wanting to vote me in 111 is actually something that I like in retrospect purely because it's quite bold. I wish at that point in time he acknowledged the validity specifically of my point on his read on Betsy but yeah he's probably town
I really don't feel comfortable that you came in and first order of business was ask to get the power up? I like our thoughts yesterday about deciding who we trusted most as town, so I think I would rather give it to one of us who was here yesterday unless you can really change my mind. Not that I think immediately you are mafia Dolby, just that I'm uncertain. You definitely came in here the most headstrong of us with bluntly getting to the point. Which I'm trying to decide if it's you being actually trying to solve this for town or setting the stones for mafia.
Then on voting Dan. I don't know if I like that you immediately excuse Tessa townreading Betsy but incriminate Dan for it? They both made the same mistake. Do you have any other reason why we should vote Dan? I don't think I want to use Betsy's mystery role to incriminate anyone because Betsy also specified several times she thought she was town, so her game did come off as more I'm working on towns side.
Post automatically merged:
Oooh, okay I get you. You mean more of developing your skills. I didn't consider that and was assuming you meant you just liked to change how you play every time and being a true wildcard so no one can read your meta, My bad. I totally understand the learning as you play angle.
I want to highlight the bolded section here and ask @FrostyAlmonds why she felt the way she did on the difference between my reads on Tessa and Dan for their reads on Betsy. Heck I think I outlined it quite well before this post as to why, and was thinking that mafia would attempt to use that point to invalidate my reads and push me because on the surface level it does look similar but if you go deeper I felt that there was a difference in that Tessa was manifesting a visible town process, and Dan was not at that time.
Yeah I just keep looking at the way Kiko builds his posts and go "this dude is town" (at 122 right now)
and then I come to this and start sideeying my opinion bc this guy wants power to blatantly and ugh it just wraps around to does he have an agenda? Because I think that my role is objectively hte best in the game to be receiving items and this guy wants power
i think it’s interesting that you’re quite confident that there’s 2 mafia. i actually think that, balance wise, there’s only 1. math wise we’d get 3 chances to eliminate with 1 maf which feels to be the standard. i guess it could be 2 if you factor in the roles, but i wouldn’t say im confident there’s 2
in regards to this theory of our pairing, i think objectively it doesn’t work. if i was mafia and the betsy slot was my partner, i would know that she didn’t receive her role yet. why bother townreading her off the bat knowing that everyone else is aware she hasn’t received her alignment yet?
Looking back I don't think that this would a route Dan would go if solo mafia. He already has me to push and it comes back to bite him later as solo mafia.
I think I'm a strong town player and I definitely shouldn't be voted off today. But if you're sus of me, please- list the reasons. I'm more than willing to resolve any questions you might have. So please - question me! I know I'm town, and will do my best to prove it.
Pretty sure, maybe 99%, the betsy votes/susses are a result of a maf wagon. It's definitely providing info....
I kinda find this post hard to process when Betsy isn't sussing anyone at this point, just blaming the votes on her on mafia when it's the towniest player in the game voting her for a reaction I feel. I think the only objective reads she provided before were two townreads on herself
I thiiiink that was everything I was directly quoted about, if I missed you let me know.
still need to try and catch up on what I missed, but I was thinking about what info I had. Right now, I'm still leaning to place my vote on Raven for reasons I discussed before, 'm going to cast it now just because I've been on that point since the inactivity talk started, of course I'm still waiting to hear what Raven has to say, and am pretty ready to change my thoughts when she shows up and hopefully contributes some thoughts of her own.
In terms of my other feelings, I really am not liking how hard Dolby is pressuring for that power vote. It's mostly a gut feeling right now but I want to listen to it. His first post here and analysis really had me thinking town but the more I think about it, the more it feels like controlling the game and trying to manipulate our opinions? I don't know, I'm not ready to shout I think you're Mafia but you're the person I'm most worried about, I get that there is probably a reason why you can't/don't want to reveal why it would be best going to you, but I just don't see you building any trust on being town and just flat out pushing that it should go to you. I really don't like that.
Tessa is my strongest and only confident town read.
Betsy and Dan I need to look back at still because there is reason for my perspective to change.
Kiko I feel pretty town about but I'm not Tessa level confident on. I could see you being maf and playing a very strong game.
I'm going to take a second here to highlight because this is the first post where Frosty outlines her overview on the game (namely in the last three lines). I don't like the Raven vote lean this early into day. Heck I'd go all out and say that it is a contributing factor to me townreading Kiko over Betsy and Frosty. But I do not like how she's specifically giving Kiko credit for his read on Betsy and Dan. I think this could be potentially pocketting. The only redason that Betsy and Dan are mentioned I feel is because Kiko recently mentioned in post 196 that they are a potential team. I'm actually fine with the Tessa and Kiko reads individually here.
I think the main thing that biggest thing that I'm liking from Frosty is that, in the d1 stage of the game, they are sticking by not trusting me.
As of now- I could get it all wrong or change my opinion, this is just as it is right now.
Dolby - I dunno. I think it's very possible you could be town. Asking for the power right away? That's a bold move, Cotton. Too bold? Maybe. It would be a huge gamble to give you that power. If town, could be the difference in the game. But bold can also be maf. So I'm trying to read based on other than the item grab...if I don't vote to give frosty the item, I might take a chance and give it to you.
Not comfortable at all with sudden read flips, without a real follow up explanation. I'm still weirded out by tessa (sorry, tessa!), and I can't decide if her vote for me was omgus as I sussed her in the beginning, or hopping on a maf created wagon, or the beginning of a maf wagon, or she genuinely thinks I'm maf, despite reading my play as town from the start.
I'll type more...slowly...one stupid finger at a time...
Post automatically merged:
Not me. I keep rereading and questioning my previous thoughts....
So this is a big thing for me, I ask Betsy for her full view of the game and her first response is just hedging on me and Tessa's alignments, not really committing either way. Combined with her overdefensiveness on Tessa's vote for her I am viewing her page 11 and 12 content with suspicion
Also I feel that she is placating me by saying she could vote for me
Kiko - I'm neutral on kiko. It's not fun being sussed, but kiko is giving reasons, active in discussing the sus on me, and is logical in reasoning. That all seems town. However, when a few people suddenly form a wagon, (with some reads flipping, no explanation), I worry it could be maf wagon. This can pull town into town tunnels. I'm having a hard time trying to figure out who's driving the wagon and who is just town caught up on the ride. I wouldn't vote kiko today, though, because I do see a lot of logic and reasoning behind how he came to his reads.
Post automatically merged:
Well, I'm town. And I can prove it! But I'd like to be here for d2...
She kinda does the same for Kiko to, hedging. Though in this case she does at least commit to not voting im in black. Still she's using non-comitted langauge which I feel could easily come from not wanting to be trapped in a corner later by past statements
Raven is easy - I'm waiting to see if/what they post this evening.
They should have enough time to at least do a quick read through and give some sort of opinions. If totally absent, though, I could vote them (can't stand mystery slots), but they should at least have the chance to give some input.
Dan - I have no idea. Is Dan town, thinks I'm clear, and genuinely reads me as town? Or is he trying to pocket me and lead me astray while at the same time painting a target on my back?
I have no idea. Could be mech/numbers he's leaning on? What bothers me is that dan votes to give me the item, which I don't want, and then a betsy wagon starts up. Dan might (?) be ok (?). I get the feeling (could be wrong!) that maf really, really wants to be rid of myself or dan.
Unless it's dan, but that's some convoluted strategy that seems, unlikely. I would not vote dan today.
In terms of the statements she makes, her Dan read I actually think is the strongest, however, it comes from him being tied to her by Kiko, and even still she basically says I have no idea of his alignment right in the middle
Frosty! My last contestant. If I miss anyone, please let me know.
If maf is only 1 person, it ain't frosty. (Goes for dolby as well, imo). Frosty seems like a newer player, but is giving reads, active, seems pretty ok so far.
The only way frosty would be maf is as part of a team. I haven't done any iso on frosty yet, so I don't know if there's even any teaming going on, but you never know - don't trust anyone, lol.
ok so actually we finally get to Frosty. This is the only read that I wouldn't call hedged, it's fairly committed to Frosty being town, despite "you never know - don't trust anyone" added to the back. Overall I don't like how this goes. It's basically a whole lot of words to say "I don't know, could go either way" on 5 out of the 6 people. The only thing I like about it and that in her discussion of where her vote ends up by saying she'd not vote some people, or would blue vote some people. And even I kinda don't like it because she basically restricts herself to Tessa, who is voting her, and Raven, who is just the easy choice.
I definitely would like to prevent a split tonight just so the mafia can't decide who dies and who gets the item.
You and dolby are my surest town reads, and if dolby can make good use of the item, then I'm down to take that risk and hit the ground running with him getting it. If I can't convince enough people to get dolby up to 3 votes for the power, then ye I'd go frosty, primarily for the non-strategic reasons, but also cuz you seem to trust frosty a bit/have already given your vote to them, and my main thing is: I don't want the mafia to be able to swing either vote at the end of the day.
ye like, you have to remember, my only game was that one, and we had abilities like shellbell's recharge, my single-use but rechargeable ability to see who uses an ability, etc. etc. It was *because* people alluded to using their abilities night 1 that I thought I should use mine too to see who was being honest. That's very much where I'm coming from in terms of powers. It's a: "does no one seriously care this time around?" thing. Again though, very possibly ill-informed, as that was an uber non-traditional game.
I understand your sussness about me though (still down to receive the item-vote!), but honestly, you do not want to vote me out if you're as townie as I think you are. I'm not too sure how I want to play tonight because of the lack of info so far, which is why I think dolby, the only one who's said *anything* about powers, is our best bet for the time being.
Besides, if they're not targeted/killed by the mafia for both winning the item *and* having a power, then that throws uber sussness on them.
Post automatically merged:
to clarify: don't waste your vote on me if you'd rather vote dolby, that's not what I mean. Me saying I'm down to receive the item was half a joke (can't help but bleed my personality into this a bit) and half: if there's no better candidate to decide on, I'm down to be defaulted to for the item kinda thing
Post automatically merged:
Part of me is like: I hope dolby doesn't die!
and the other part is like: If dolby doesn't die...
I appreciate that Kiko has strong reads. Also gonna point out that this is definetely preluding to Kiko wanting the item today and his reasons for wanting it. Sorry Kiko (a concern when I entered thread) but I implore you to vote for me, despite me reading between your lines right here
Already mentioned in my first response when you asked if I wanted it. I don't want to have a target on my back.
Also- in the case the item is protective, dolby should have it. He has claimed he has a certain undisclosed "advantage". This would make him (possible pr) the target. It's more important to keep pr safe.
He could be lying....but it's early in the game for that kind of strategy I think, maybe.
I think from maf Dan's POV I'd probably be the person to sus insteaad of Kiko, just to try to get item votes off me but at the same time I don't think he was gonna get the item. Minor good points I guess
So the tl;dr I have from this: I think that Dan is townier and I think his earlier posts look better having some more perspective on him. Honestly I think that Kiko is good even despite role fishing and some weird stuff like "I want to give it to Frosty bc she's newer" but if I just look at his stuff a lot of his faux paus just bleed out of game personality entering the game.
I think that Frosty and Betsy are the players that I'm most distrustful of. A LOT of Betsy's early posts are about mechanical strategy that does not touch on how she feels about individual players. And even when she's talking about individual players early in the game she struggles to provide reads that she doesn't feel the need to qualify with other statements ("hedging"). When Frosty, in contrast, is talking about the item, she often does it in context of solving for my alignment. i think that this is a big red flag for Betsy and I'm definetely gonna be finishing this up and looking at later posts for signs that Betsy is willing to commit to reads. TL;DR Betsy has a lot of words which ultimately don't serve to solve who the mafia is, which I view as a big red flag
Also Betsy writing this is why I wasn't responding to you guys
Not true. I was sussing tessa the whole time. From the very beginning of the game. I even gave a huge long summary here about it. Why would you fail to mention that?
So this is a big thing for me, I ask Betsy for her full view of the game and her first response is just hedging on me and Tessa's alignments, not really committing either way. Combined with her overdefensiveness on Tessa's vote for her I am viewing her page 11 and 12 content with suspicion
Also I feel that she is placating me by saying she could vote for me
Again, not true! I really dislike all of the misrepresentation going on here. I gave my whole reads on everyone, but split it up into several posts, mainly because I'm on mobile, so it takes forever, and to avoid a wall post.
ok so actually we finally get to Frosty. This is the only read that I wouldn't call hedged, it's fairly committed to Frosty being town, despite "you never know - don't trust anyone" added to the back. Overall I don't like how this goes.
A LOT of Betsy's early posts are about mechanical strategy that does not touch on how she feels about individual players. And even when she's talking about individual players early in the game she struggles to provide reads that she doesn't feel the need to qualify with other statements ("hedging").
There is a reason I was focused on mechanical strategy in the beginning. And sorry, but I was the very first person to put a read based on "mah feelings" very early in the game. So I don't get where that is coming from.
The reason I qualify my statements is because on d1 - everything is based on pure assumption. So I try to put exactly what I'm thinking out there. D2, I get slightly more confident. If I make it to f3, I'm solid.
I corrected some of the things you stated in your read of me that were untrue. I do not like misrepresenting, because usually it has nefarious purposes. I even labeled them "not true" and gave corrections, so you can review them.
Your campaign will not be getting my vote.
Also- if you misread all of that.....it's no wonder you didn't pick up anything else I put down.
What dolby said was untrue. So you know what to do.
Good things will come to you, If you vote ##Betsy in Blue
Betsy, I'll believe you're a townie and not try to draw out any more details from you if you give me your item vote
Post automatically merged:
also, dolby, wow at your post! Was not expecting anyone to go through the entire thread at any point in the game really. Was great to see how you think and read everything put togethrr
Post automatically merged:
also also, correct me if I'm wrong, but would having a detective in a 1 maf game not be a little OP for townies? I'm not saying this to push for us thinking there are 2, I genuinely have no idea
I can only say, that mechanically and every other way, it would be best if I get the item IF it would keep me alive one more day.
The problem is, as much as dolby is confident, I believe he has missed something huge. As bad as his reads on me were, sorry, I don't think he's the best for the item.
I think there's either 2 maf, or 1 maf with a kill shot.
It's just too unbalanced if dan, tessa, dolby, possibly you have pr and what - there's just one maf with no pr? Makes no sense.
If the item does be one that can keep you alive, you're certain that you'd be able to defend yourself tomorrow? (it will be *very* sussy and almost guarantee you get voted out tomorrow if you get the item, live, and have nothing to show for jt)
