Mafia June 2020 Mafia Game Thread [DAY 2 ENDS AT 6/20 5PM PST]

Given Ace's case on Aerious, which one do you find more likely to be scum? I think it's more Aerious then him but yea as you said they're probs not teamed


where in this game has bianca been more helpful then last game?
honestly i wanted to say that bianca is more helpful but not a lot, last game she literally flipped a coin to decide on who to vote and said something like "im not telling you anything bc you are maf" so here she is *little tiny bit* better

aerious/ace is something that I am still trying to figure out because I really can't understand what both of them are doing lol ace is so caotic but as I said I honestly think mafia should be more subtle, but maybe it's a big brain move. its like yea mafia maybe wouldnt do that, but town would do that even less,, aerious is still confusing and doesnt look on big pic instead of their own agendas but i still giving the pass to see if it's their own weird playstyle
 
lol okay

do you think epona was killed just to frame you?
to your first point: i don't see a mafia member willing to die to aid town. ever. at all. sensai was willing to sacrifice himself let punchy live for the betterment of us. his responses were genuine and came at the acceptance of knowing he's going to die

yeah, i do. especially by the person who had an infographic/wagon willing and ready. it's too coincidental. everything pertaining to ace has been a little too coincidental, from not wanting to respond to my questioning bc of offense to a joke to someone else (who understood it as a joke), to believing i'm sus for the same point i mentioned yesterday (rb + ninja on maf v. me heavily town-leaning sensai), to the infographic and readiness with a wagon. do you not at all think this is coincidental? i'm low hanging fruit to ace bc i've scumread him since yesterday

now i'm going to dinner
 
IDK, if Ness was scum I would’ve expected him to come into the thread, rambling about how we didn’t lynch Sensai.

And this is kinda weak but his death prediction on me and Daniel dying is exactly what I was thinking, I know I’m town so I felt like that also came from a town POV.

Otherwise yeah his play so far is kinda weak, baseless arguments and tunnelling Sensai is all I recall, but for me it doesn’t equate to scum.

If he was mafia, I would think he would be a bit brighter to not go for Epona or Mayor Leaf?? They were such obvious jailkeeps/doc protects/watches. Again that’s pure conjecture but yeah. On that note, whoever mafia are, those kills were sooo stupid given the PRs but it worked out anyway -____-

I would like to make the assertion that the night kills you think one player should have made should not be indicative of whether they're mafia.

for example, if both ness and Daniel were mafia, I would expect Daniel to lead the kill.

I actually think Ness' entire game is super scummy, just consistently so. Like I'll admit there's a world where any of my scumreads are town, but that won't stop me from turnin up the heat.
 
do you think epona was killed just to frame you?
I just want to make it clear that with or without Epona my wagon was a thing, that is why it was the first thing I posted.

Killing Epona was a good move, it was you or her, I don't get why not both.
Post automatically merged:

yeah, i do. especially by the person who had an infographic/wagon willing and ready. it's too coincidental. everything pertaining to ace has been a little too coincidental, from not wanting to respond to my questioning bc of offense to a joke to someone else (who understood it as a joke), to believing i'm sus for the same point i mentioned yesterday (rb + ninja on maf v. me heavily town-leaning sensai), to the infographic and readiness with a wagon. do you not at all think this is coincidental? i'm low hanging fruit to ace bc i've scumread him since yesterday

Photoshop takes time, and just starting a wagon like glow's would ended in you being safe. Pupupupupu
 
I would like to make the assertion that the night kills you think one player should have made should not be indicative of whether they're mafia.

for example, if both ness and Daniel were mafia, I would expect Daniel to lead the kill.

I actually think Ness' entire game is super scummy, just consistently so. Like I'll admit there's a world where any of my scumreads are town, but that won't stop me from turnin up the heat.
Nah I actually think Ness would lead the kills, I recall from his past scum chats he usually assumes the leader role.

I’ll look into him though, but idk I just don’t feel scum in him at all atm.
 
honestly i wanted to say that bianca is more helpful but not a lot, last game she literally flipped a coin to decide on who to vote and said something like "im not telling you anything bc you are maf" so here she is *little tiny bit* better
i mean she voted for a no elimination which she should've known wasn't going to happen, similar to how a coin flip between two people who weren't dying that day. I still think she posts too much filler for my liking tbh
 
i mean she voted for a no elimination which she should've known wasn't going to happen, similar to how a coin flip between two people who weren't dying that day. I still think she posts too much filler for my liking tbh
From all 4 games I played with her, always votes for a random placeholder, then no kill
 
do you not at all think this is coincidental?
ill have to sit on this more because after asking ace about it his case on you is overdone when it couldve been more concise with the only 2 real valid points. some of the points don't make sense and the last one is just wrong. he's also making way too many assumptions on how people he's never played with much behave

i don't think the epona kill was to frame you. frame kills never really happen tbh. epona and mayor were some of the most widely townread players so I don't think its more than that
Post automatically merged:

From all 4 games I played with her, always votes for a random placeholder, then no kill
what four games are these? ik Toad's game and the dethy. But I don't think a dethy counts much for meta
 
i mean she voted for a no elimination which she should've known wasn't going to happen, similar to how a coin flip between two people who weren't dying that day. I still think she posts too much filler for my liking tbh
yeah I don't her posts and that's why I said the wagon shouldve been on her
Post automatically merged:

i dont like*
Post automatically merged:

also @Aerious quick thing but who do you think teddy/ace is teamed up with and do you think they share the plan to frame you
Post automatically merged:

also throwing that question for the table for who would like to answer
 
Last edited:
btw I did run the numbers yesterday since I truly did think it was off for there being 4 scum. I think the most important thing to remember is that Kallie changed the KP from 1 to the normal formula after talking to geoni in particular

Imagine the worst case scenario where each Day ends in a ML and scum get each kill successfully:

13 v 4 (1 KP)
N1: 12 v 4
D2: 11 v 4
N2: 10 v 4
D3: 9 v 4
N3: 8 v 4
D4: 7 v 4
N4: 6 v 4
D5: 5 v 4

ML Day 5 and lose

13 v 4 (2 KP)- what most are assuming were in
N1: 12 v 4
D2: 10 v 4
N2: 9 v 4
D3: 7 v 4
N3: 6 v 4

Scum kills 2 successfully, so ML Day 3 and lose

14 v 3 (1 KP)
N1: 13 v 3
D2: 12 v 3
N2: 11 v 3
D3: 10 v 3
N3: 9 v 3
D4: 8 v 3
N4: 7 v 3
D5: 6 v 3
N5: 5 v 3
D6: 4 v 3

ML Day 6 and lose

14 v 3 (2 KP)
N1: 13 v 3
D2: 11 v 3
N2: 10 v 3
D3: 8 v 3
N3: 7 v 3
D4: 5 v 3
N4: 4 v 3
D5: 2 v 3

Kill at least 1 successfully, so ML D4 and lose

If kallie started with 4 scum at 1 KP, that means town can afford 5 MLs. The champs game in MU of 12 v 3 with 1KP allows for 5 MLs worse case, so I think that's pretty balanced (MU tries to make the games as balanced as possible). On top of that, if Geoni was helping Kallie (who is familiar with MU's format), I feel like he would recognize this and say this KP is fine (may be overthinking Geoni though). But by going to 2 KP, town could only afford 3 ML. The jump from 5 ML to 3 ML is super big and I think it changes it from pretty balanced to scum sided if you ask me

If Kallie started with 3 scum and 1 KP, it would take 6 ML to lose worse case, which is town sided imo. Going from 6ML to 4ML by going back to the original formula balances things out and I think would warrant a setup change

But Heyden did link to a game where Kallie had the same player count and 2 KP, it may just be 4 scum. But this is why i instinctely thought it was 3 scum after the announcement and now that I thought about it, a team of 3 with the normal formula wouldve made more sense to change than if it was 4 with 1 KP

If there is currently 4 scum with 2 KP, we only have 2 MLs left if worse comes to worse which doesn't feel balanced to me so yea that's why I said 3 and now go back to that claim

Anyways I'm gonna read back to EoD before going back to my work
 
So of note is the fact that A. this is a forum game, and B. we have bonkers amount of PRs.

Unlike quickmafia, where the setup is fully open, (town has between 1 and 2 mls to solve.)

And closed mafia (town should have around 4-5 mls to solve)
We have a semi open setup with investigative roles.

SHOULD the mafia have 3 mafia, and one is lynched, that puts mafia at 2, setting KP at one, giving us 6 mls.

But the fact that the original setup had 1 kp means to me that the number of mafia is 4. I can't imagine a 1 kp 3 mafia setup that sounds AWFUL.
Post automatically merged:

I misspoke, I think I was trying to say that the prs we do have are really good*

Even if we only have some of them, it doesn't change the fact that all of them individually are VERY strong.
 
@Aerious Yeah I did think the already written post in preparation for the beginning of D2 was a bit weird, I guess he wasn’t expecting himself to die despite putting himself as a townread lol. I don’t think it’s a frame though, at all. Epona died because she was heavily townread.
 
So of note is the fact that A. this is a forum game, and B. we have bonkers amount of PRs.

Unlike quickmafia, where the setup is fully open, (town has between 1 and 2 mls to solve.)

And closed mafia (town should have around 4-5 mls to solve)
We have a semi open setup with investigative roles.

SHOULD the mafia have 3 mafia, and one is lynched, that puts mafia at 2, setting KP at one, giving us 6 mls.

But the fact that the original setup had 1 kp means to me that the number of mafia is 4. I can't imagine a 1 kp 3 mafia setup that sounds AWFUL.
Post automatically merged:

I misspoke, I think I was trying to say that the prs we do have are really good*

Even if we only have some of them, it doesn't change the fact that all of them individually are VERY strong.
i think you're overstating the influence PRs usually have in games. right now investigative roles aren't that powerful with the possibility of a ninja. especially here, doctors are known to not be that accurate in protections

1 KP with 3 mafia is awful with i think why it would compel host to change it to the normal formula. 1 KP with 4 scum i think its fine and shouldn't have been changed. Changing to 2KP sounds even worse if it was originally 4 scum
Post automatically merged:

only having 3 ML in worse case sounds like really bad lol
Post automatically merged:

@Aerious Yeah I did think the already written post in preparation for the beginning of D2 was a bit weird, I guess he wasn’t expecting himself to die despite putting himself as a townread lol. I don’t think it’s a frame though, at all. Epona died because she was heavily townread.
yea his case on aerious isn't that strong as it couldve been and his big reads post have confusion conclusions and a bit contradictory
Post automatically merged:

Given Ace's case on Aerious, which one do you find more likely to be scum? I think it's more Aerious then him but yea as you said they're probs not teamed
i take this back cuz im not sure anymore after thinking about the quality of ace's reads
 
Last edited:
Something you're not taking into account is the variance between different possible setups given the circumstance.

For example if mafia team had no ninja you'd likely consider 4 mafia 2 kp to be ridiculously townsided still.

This is in addition to the fact that the mafia essentially have one really strong role, and 2 pretty useless ones.

Not to mention forum mafia is absolutely more townsided than quickmafia on it's own.

I don't think I can say that I consider a 3 ml setup to be scumsided, let's say statistically we lynch a 2 mafia over the course of 5 lynches, what are the odds that one of those are a mafia?

If this is a 3 mafia setup, what are the odds that we lynch 1 mafia over 4 lynches.

Just because the WORST case scenario for 4 mafia is scumsided doesn't mean that the BEST case scenario for 4 mafia isn't townsided.

just like how even if the worstcase scenario for 3 mafia is scumsided, doesn't mean that the BEST case scenario for 3 mafia isn't super townsided.
Post automatically merged:

As a final note: if there's a setup that ends if one mafia gets lynched then the setups a bad setup. Due to the fact that 3 mafia (with presumably one ninja), would just end in an instant town win if ninja is lynched, should be enough of a case against the 3 person setup.
 
Why did header Sammy now that I’m town after sushi game for awhile

OmgTeddythat aeries post was superb lol i like it
hey bianca

a couple of things:

why did you vote no elimination

how do you think Ace's case was strong it had 2 possibly valid points and the rest were either no actual points and the final one was wrong and he states he just wanted to make it look better by giving a false end
Post automatically merged:

Something you're not taking into account is the variance between different possible setups given the circumstance.

For example if mafia team had no ninja you'd likely consider 4 mafia 2 kp to be ridiculously townsided still.

This is in addition to the fact that the mafia essentially have one really strong role, and 2 pretty useless ones.

Not to mention forum mafia is absolutely more townsided than quickmafia on it's own.

I don't think I can say that I consider a 3 ml setup to be scumsided, let's say statistically we lynch a 2 mafia over the course of 5 lynches, what are the odds that one of those are a mafia?

If this is a 3 mafia setup, what are the odds that we lynch 1 mafia over 4 lynches.

Just because the WORST case scenario for 4 mafia is scumsided doesn't mean that the BEST case scenario for 4 mafia isn't townsided.

just like how even if the worstcase scenario for 3 mafia is scumsided, doesn't mean that the BEST case scenario for 3 mafia isn't super townsided.
Post automatically merged:

As a final note: if there's a setup that ends if one mafia gets lynched then the setups a bad setup. Due to the fact that 3 mafia (with presumably one ninja), would just end in an instant town win if ninja is lynched, should be enough of a case against the 3 person setup.
if the game started at 4 scum with 1 kp i don't see a need to change it

even if there isn't the ninja, the possibility that there COULD be one still weakens investigation results. unless we get a dead ninja, we don't know how reliable those roles could be. just stating that a ninja could exist in the OP benefits scum greatly. can't prove it doesn't exist so that alone weakens PRs until one is dead

if we can only afford 3 MLs worse case, I think it's really risky since the early day lynches are the least concise
 
if the game started at 4 scum with 1 kp i don't see a need to change it

even if there isn't the ninja, the possibility that there COULD be one still weakens investigation results. unless we get a dead ninja, we don't know how reliable those roles could be. just stating that a ninja could exist in the OP benefits scum greatly. can't prove it doesn't exist so that alone weakens PRs until one is dead

if we can only afford 3 MLs worse case, I think it's really risky since the early day lynches are the least concise

Except as a counterpoint a scumteam without a ninja doesn't actually get anything done.

There are 2 visiting mafia, a Roleblocker and a goon.

Assuming the scenario in which ninja doesn't exist, if someone is tracked and they visit the kill they HAVE no claim to beat it.

All the other roles are protective roles. It's not like goon can claim Doc if the dude died.

So ninja is inherently a role that is only useful if it exists.
It DOES stop v's from being autocleared, but that also only ends up confirming the existance of a hypothetical ninja.

IE: 11 alive, 4 mafia 7 town, 3 prs claim alive and 3 reports? That's unbalanced.

but given that we start with 17, and we have 2 lynches before we get to that day? + potential docs/jailkeeps that increase ml.

I would say that the setup has a healthy amount of variance at 4 that goes from maybe 40 town to 60-70 town depending on how the game is played.

I still think 3p is way too townsided, even if 4p is slightly scumsided.
 
Except as a counterpoint a scumteam without a ninja doesn't actually get anything done.

There are 2 visiting mafia, a Roleblocker and a goon.

Assuming the scenario in which ninja doesn't exist, if someone is tracked and they visit the kill they HAVE no claim to beat it.

All the other roles are protective roles. It's not like goon can claim Doc if the dude died.

So ninja is inherently a role that is only useful if it exists.
It DOES stop v's from being autocleared, but that also only ends up confirming the existance of a hypothetical ninja.

IE: 11 alive, 4 mafia 7 town, 3 prs claim alive and 3 reports? That's unbalanced.

but given that we start with 17, and we have 2 lynches before we get to that day? + potential docs/jailkeeps that increase ml.

I would say that the setup has a healthy amount of variance at 4 that goes from maybe 40 town to 60-70 town depending on how the game is played.

I still think 3p is way too townsided, even if 4p is slightly scumsided.
i see what you're saying but speculating exactly which powers could exist is just high speculation to me. I think in a very base level host going from 3 scum w 1 KP to 2 KP is more balanced justified than 4 scum with 1 KP to 2 KP, but we don't know the powers so idk

but if it is 4 scum, then we can only afford 2 MLs left which is very scary so yeah
 
Back
Top