Mafia Monster Mash Mafia Game Thread (Town Win!)

[shawo]

I think the end of day sentiment that Betsy brought up was relevant as well. Tae's read on Trent does read as convenient, although possible. I'm not sure how convincing a meta read at the last 20 minutes of the day is, but I actually think rather than setting up Tae as mafia, it just inclines Betsy as town. Basically no one else was using the last 20 minutes to actively make reads, except Betsy, who seemed to care more about the vote patterns/game flow during the vote than anyone else. This along with a pretty solid d1 means Betsy is probably my second? hardest townlean in the game rn.

This is separate from vote pattern analysis, which is usually just useful for team-telling.

I'm still curious to have Tae give a response to the specific read/No Elim, because I think the reasoning behind it matters far more than the action - because Betsy's proposed theory is possible. Tae could be trying to bunk on a guaranteed town flip to play off of having a "right read." Especially since the attempted flip onto No Elim was... weak. To say the least. On the flip side, it's not like No Elim was mafia, so it's more of a confusing play than an alignment indicative one.

Post automatically merged: Oct 17, 2022

where am I on this?

Nowhere. You voted no one far before the end of day?

 

[Sidney]

For what it's worth, my bw on Trent wasn't actually as strong as my read-on Trent, I used strong language and pushed a scumlean, and I don't regret that, but my actual goal was trying to identify the vote pattern leading up to the elim.

It's a pretty clear follow.

Betsy/Sidney/Tessa/Sheep followed, Tae voted no one.

Out of the five people that voted, I actually think Tessa's/Sheep were the most natural. However - an addendum, there's often times that mafia feel the need to play in a certain way due to having a preset persona/reads. For example, once Sheep agreed that they SR'd Trent, when I pressured them to vote Trent they were basically forced into doing it. They couldn't just agree that they had an end of day fos on Trent and then NOT vote when asked.

Tae's vote stands out a lot as a no elim when explicitly told that No Elim was bad. For what it's worth, there are a lot of reasons that can be the case, but now that we're not under pressure of EoD, I would like... at least a logical explanation as to why.

Betsy's flip was fairly interesting, IMO, as I offered to vote their vote, under the precondition that we weren't splitting votes into EoD. I think Betsy does have the most awkward vote pattern, but I also townlean Besty for d1 so it ends up being less relevant imo.

Tessa and Sidney are both interesting because both players came in right onto d1, and were essentially pressured into being forced into a kill on a null read. I'm actually going to go ahead and say it probably doesn't alignment tell, and that the BW formed pretty naturally. If anything, I don't really think both Betsy/Sheep are mafia together, but that's not a super useful read given the circumstances of the rest of my reads.

I think the actual issue is that the alternative vote was a No Elim. And given that No Elim is basically pushed as being anti-town... why would anyone vote for No Elim just for an unnecessary scumlean? ... Tae.

sorry, what does bw mean? can't find it on google

Post automatically merged: Oct 17, 2022

back to slowly collecting thoughts/iso again

 

[Totally_RandomYT]

Nowhere. You voted no one far before the end of day?

fair, Mostly that vote wasn't my own thoughts, it was me just trying to make sure I didn't forget to vote before I inevitably got lost talking to my step-sister from college. I'll try to make a better vote this time around.

 

[shawo]

sorry, what does bw mean? can't find it on google

Sorry - I used to play mafia on a different site. BW means Bandwagon, which is basically just the fallacy. In this case, it's voting someone simply because someone else is voting them. (More nuanced, heavily impacted by reads, etc.)

Basically, my attempting to induce other people to vote Trent simply because I chose to vote was me "bwing" Trent.

Post automatically merged: Oct 17, 2022

once again I’m still kinda sus of shawo

Do you have any other reads besides the one on me? Townreads/mafreads?

 

[Totally_RandomYT]

BRB taking a shower, if you post a read on me I’ll see it and clear up anything I need to

 

[shawo]

So Tessa was my #1 townlean D1, but starting D2 I'm currently voting them for a couple of reasons.

I don't have a proper ISO chain, so I'm going to build it out, but I think my townread on Tessa was unwarranted. The simplest reason is as follows. Town acts in benefit of town, Mafia act for self-preservation. This is basically the easiest way to try to SR anyone. I felt like, looking at the way Tessa was playing the game, that they're active + relatively helpful towny posts weren't made to try to solve the game but actually as an attempt to "look towny" via playing active town.

I think especially the entrance into D2 was pretty bad as well, especially given the large ISO chains that I don't think are actually very helpful.

 

[Sidney]

I was trying to do betsy to continue with my list but i’m back on mobile now while i download smthn and it was getting too complicated for my little pea brain + couldn’t decide which posts were actually helpful so now i will say something to/about @Totally_RandomYT instead (and then try to regroup my thoughts)

Last post, most substantial one we got, makes sense i mean being busy makes sense. Also not refreshing the thread makes sense.

Honestly, I still feel like there’s not enough to go off right now.

Do you think any other posts of shawo’s aside from the “town” and “maf” are suspicious?

And what are your vibes on everyone else?

I think that would help most right now

Post automatically merged: Oct 17, 2022

oh its not actual last post

first post of this day @_@

 

[shawo]

Just to be the counter argument to my own argument. I'm going to go ahead and quote every post that Tessa has made that I've really liked.

#156: relatively early active solving post, the content itself isn't actually super important given the circumstance of the game, but it looks like a genuine attempt to come into the game as an apology for being late.

A strong overall push towards having an Elim. Relatively consistent logic, it's all over all of their posts.

Hey good points are being made here. I personally find it very difficult to make reads off of tone than others, so for me it's hard to make reads when I feel that we don't have a lot to go off of, or when I can see both sides of an argument.

This specific post which matches the way they've been playing the game.

Okay I'm here VERY last minute lol to give you all a quick who I'm voting and stuff

Who I WILL vote:
Sidney: I'm not backing down from this one even though some of her stuff has been explained I feel weirdly about the ins and outs of changing positions and ideas that's been happening, but I can see why she might be confused town. Idk it's still kind of scummy to me. I also didn't love the bandwagon onto trent after pushing so strongly a no elim.
Trent: He's gonna be my vote today because I am very against no elim for so many reasons, and I don't think we should split d1. He's also not given many great points that haven't already been said (ex: asking sidney a question I had literally just asked right before lol). I can get behind this for the sake of information for d2, he could be maf or couldn't be but I'm leaning more towards maf.
Tae: I will vote tae cause angry person haha (please dont come after me this is a joke)
Random: Literally no information from him but it's been very suspicious with the no elim and last minute opinions that have no actual value. But this would be my last option.
Who I WON'T vote (for now):
Shawo: Solid points, seems very town to me and has lead a lot of good discussion. From previous games I've seen he seems pretty standard town behavior. Maybe he's just really good, idk.
Starlit: STOP BEING SUSPICIOUS OF IA, LOL, they'll get replaced
Betsy: I think she has more to offer d2. That's really all I gotta post this before it locks.

Solid end of day post (albeit rushed). That seems to contain decent reads that match Tessa's general tone for the day + seems to actually contain Tessa's opinions about the game state.

Tessa's made a lot of very towny quotes. In addition to being actively solving and essentially very pro town.

But...

 

[tessa grace]

Back on doing iso's. Coming on here rq to say I forgot to mention my pronouns are she/her

 

[Totally_RandomYT]

Do you think any other posts of shawo’s aside from the “town” and “maf” are suspicious?

And what are your vibes on everyone else?

1) I don’t really think the “town” and “maf” posts were suspicious, i think it’s how shawo just went from that to full blown paragraphs in a matter of however long. Idk if they weren’t thinking right or if they’re maf but idk
2) ok my current (but small) reads
Shawo - I need more to go off of but am kinda suspicious of
Tessa grace - if she is mafia I’d be impressed with how she’s hiding it. I’d have to look into her a little more
Sidney - seems helpful but knowing a few other mafia players, too helpful can be too good to be true.
Betsy - seems like town and I’m not suspicious of her (I have a feeling that’s going to bite me in the butt)
Tae - kinda quiet now, I don’t think I’ve seen them d2 although I may have missed them.
Sheep - not enough info from d2, but not too many questions.

 

[shawo]

So, I guess, for context, or for myself. One thing I often do is conflate being pro town and being town. It's easy to see when someone's actively trying to push an Agenda IMO, but especially given the circumstances behind the game, (and the fact that I'm the only one who's tried to lead an Elim.) It's a bit more nuanced when looking for the mafia.

The two things that really stand out to me about Tessa are this.
-I don't actually think Tessa is pushing forward the town gamestate.
-Tessa's read on Trent actually seems inconsistent on a backread.

It's... a bit harder to actively ISO the first one. It's not like I can quote the lack of something. But to put it differently, I would expect someone trying to towntell to spend all their time posting what they think is towny, rather than actually trying to do anything. I think Tessa's playing in that way, and relatively well, even.

Another example of this is the EoD vote. Tessa spent a lot of time reading + pushing for an Elim. (and granted, they were afk up until the end of the day.) But at any point before that they could've done more than just ... nothing. I mean rightfully so, I misread and pushed Trent, but the exact opposite of that is Tessa. Tessa also admits to SRing Trent (lightly), Sydney, maybe Tae as well, as well as having a relatively open elim pool.

However, start of D2, there's an immediate flip off that read. Not super happy about the vote, Shawo FoS for a weird push on Trent, etc.

play style was more in a solvey-interrogate type of way and I wished I would’ve said something about that sooner.

While feasibly consistent, it just reads a bit flip-floppy in execution. I mean feasibly there's a reason as to why the reads would've developed the way they did, (and I would like a reply to this.) But another, realistic, way to look at it, is simply that Tessa's reads are... inconsistent. Trent flipped town, so now Trent seems townier. Shawo's push on trent was maffy, but my lack of push on trent was not. etc.

It feels like the reads are made to be reading, and not to find mafia.

Post automatically merged: Oct 17, 2022

Tbh TotallyRandom might actually be town.

Post automatically merged: Oct 17, 2022

Also, maybe unnecessary, but I think I do feel the need to defend myself.

The way the game was going, I wasn't convinced anyone was going to be eliminated AT all. I might as well push a conviction on a read and attempt to get them eliminated. The alternative of having No Elim was much worse IMO. Also, maybe not relevant, but Trent was a forced vote at some point. IE: They had to be eliminated.

If you want to actually read the process of the Elim, I tried to get trent multiple times to defend their position, (although I'm not entirely sure I would've flipped off of it either way.)

Of course. I still did lead a vote on town. Should've read better -_-.

 

[Sidney]

So, I guess, for context, or for myself. One thing I often do is conflate being pro town and being town. It's easy to see when someone's actively trying to push an Agenda IMO, but especially given the circumstances behind the game, (and the fact that I'm the only one who's tried to lead an Elim.) It's a bit more nuanced when looking for the mafia.

The two things that really stand out to me about Tessa are this.
-I don't actually think Tessa is pushing forward the town gamestate.
-Tessa's read on Trent actually seems inconsistent on a backread.

It's... a bit harder to actively ISO the first one. It's not like I can quote the lack of something. But to put it differently, I would expect someone trying to towntell to spend all their time posting what they think is towny, rather than actually trying to do anything. I think Tessa's playing in that way, and relatively well, even.

Another example of this is the EoD vote. Tessa spent a lot of time reading + pushing for an Elim. (and granted, they were afk up until the end of the day.) But at any point before that they could've done more than just ... nothing. I mean rightfully so, I misread and pushed Trent, but the exact opposite of that is Tessa. Tessa also admits to SRing Trent (lightly), Sydney, maybe Tae as well, as well as having a relatively open elim pool.

However, start of D2, there's an immediate flip off that read. Not super happy about the vote, Shawo FoS for a weird push on Trent, etc.



While feasibly consistent, it just reads a bit flip-floppy in execution. I mean feasibly there's a reason as to why the reads would've developed the way they did, (and I would like a reply to this.) But another, realistic, way to look at it, is simply that Tessa's reads are... inconsistent. Trent flipped town, so now Trent seems townier. Shawo's push on trent was maffy, but my lack of push on trent was not. etc.

It feels like the reads are made to be reading, and not to find mafia.

Post automatically merged: Oct 17, 2022

Tbh TotallyRandom might actually be town.

This tessa read is like the polar opposite of how I’ve been reading so far but tbh i didn’t take in to account anything for d2. Just gonna let that one play out for now while I try to gather my thoughts.

-

Yeah, I’m afraid to truly clear anyone this early and a lot of things are making my head spin right now but….I’m beginning to think the same as well with that response as well as the last couple.

It doesn’t really seem that guided to me rn…would love to hear more from random though as time goes on

 

[tessa grace]

Trent flipped town, so now Trent seems townier.

Sorry, I don't think I understand this one? I was suspicious of Trent, of course, because you had brought up some evidence against him and we weren't entirely solid on whether or not he was mafia or not. I actually wrote notes from day 1, about him (and of course I can't prove I wrote these, but this was my immediate thought during d1):
"Day One Notes:
I like that Trent asks a lot of questions, he seems genuinely curious to solve the puzzle that is mafia."

When town started to vote for him I decided to go along, not only because I felt like I could be suspicious of him when everyone else was and there were valid reasons to be, but when someone flips town, of course I'm going to see the reasons why they are town and rethink my reads of the people who interacted with him the most.
The basic rules of the game are that mafia knows they're separate from town. So when you push a vote towards a town member, and he flips town, I am going to be suspicious of you and look back on day 1. That's what eliminations is all about, to get informations and hopefully eliminate the wolves, right?

 

[shawo]

Sorry, I don't think I understand this one? I was suspicious of Trent, of course, because you had brought up some evidence against him and we weren't entirely solid on whether or not he was mafia or not. I actually wrote notes from day 1, about him (and of course I can't prove I wrote these, but this was my immediate thought during d1):
"Day One Notes:
I like that Trent asks a lot of questions, he seems genuinely curious to solve the puzzle that is mafia."

When town started to vote for him I decided to go along, not only because I felt like I could be suspicious of him when everyone else was and there were valid reasons to be, but when someone flips town, of course I'm going to see the reasons why they are town and rethink my reads of the people who interacted with him the most.
The basic rules of the game are that mafia knows they're separate from town. So when you push a vote towards a town member, and he flips town, I am going to be suspicious of you and look back on day 1. That's what eliminations is all about, to get informations and hopefully eliminate the wolves, right?

I do believe you wrote notes, but I don't think this was really properly shown in the progression of thoughts from how EoD to Start of Day looked. The specific complaint I have about the last comment you've mentioned is... that that's exactly it. Your read looks like a logical progression that town would make. I think I should be scumread/looked at closer FOR my having pushed a vote on Trent.

What I thought was maffy was the fact that it seemed inconsistent with your own set of reads - not that there was an issue with the read itself.

Post automatically merged: Oct 17, 2022

Just filling in with my own reads though, I actually do think there's enough information from D1 that I should be able to get a reasonable fos by EoD. There's a whole other can of worms with Det that I don't even really want to go into, but there was a lot of information, and playing without an open Det report should be expected, rather than the alternative.

For one thing, Betsy is fairly town IMO, and I honestly have a townlean on Random despite the relatively lackluster posts they've made.

Which leaves me trying to find mafia in Sidney/Tessa/Sheep/Tae.
Sidney is weird because I actively dislike their posts, but I think they're towny despite it. It's easier to chalk up Sidney's playstyle to inexperience than it is to say that they're mafia for having reads for reasons I disagree with.
The opposite of that is Tessa, who does have posts that I really like, but I think is driven by a desire to read rather than an actual sense of game solving?
Sheep I think I'm going to need more content from. I could ISO, but between Sheep and Tae I think Sheep's more likely to be mafia. Tae drove a lot of attention to themself with the Trent save, and while it could be a mafia play, Tae is a reasonably experienced player, it seems more likely that it was... just Tae being Tae. Not that I inherently have any reason for SR Sheep, but given the circumstances of my reads, this is where I'm at.

Of course, I'm not actually very confident on any of my reads. The primary reason is that I think there's a lot more content that needs to happen for D2. The other reason is that... I'm not actually sure if what I'm doing conveys well to Forum Mafia? Like, maybe I'm not conveying it well, but I'm posting in a confident manner because I trust myself more than anyone here, not because I'm dead set that X is mafia at any given point in time. Although maybe I shouldn't admit to this.

 

[tessa grace]

Of course, I'm not actually very confident on any of my reads. The primary reason is that I think there's a lot more content that needs to happen for D2. The other reason is that... I'm not actually sure if what I'm doing conveys well to Forum Mafia? Like, maybe I'm not conveying it well, but I'm posting in a confident manner because I trust myself more than anyone here, not because I'm dead set that X is mafia at any given point in time. Although maybe I shouldn't admit to this.

Out of curiosity, what other mafia do you play online?

Also I'm going to be honest your response to my response went entirely over my head, and I still don't think I get it. Are my thoughts towards trent inconsistent?

I think I should be scumread/looked at closer FOR my having pushed a vote on Trent.

Or is the case that I'm inconsistent by not sring you in my latest read?

It's late, my head hurts, and I've gotten nowhere on my betsy iso. Why are you so hard to read betsy....

 

[Sidney]

Oh I’m definitely the same in that I trust myself more than any of the rest of you, but I’m not certain any of my reads yet. Everything feels more like a lean and some in both directions….@-@

Hoping for lots of activity and reactions to things; I may try to do more posts like I did with with the 3 so far to just try to ask more questions rather than saying “oh yeah xyz is sus/town”

in re:

Of course, I'm not actually very confident on any of my reads. The primary reason is that I think there's a lot more content that needs to happen for D2. The other reason is that... I'm not actually sure if what I'm doing conveys well to Forum Mafia? Like, maybe I'm not conveying it well, but I'm posting in a confident manner because I trust myself more than anyone here, not because I'm dead set that X is mafia at any given point in time. Although maybe I shouldn't admit to this.

Post automatically merged: Oct 17, 2022

The night kill kinda threw me for a loop tbh i think

I need to look back on how many more votes we get to figure this mess out

 

[shawo]

Out of curiosity, what other mafia do you play online?

Also I'm going to be honest your response to my response went entirely over my head, and I still don't think I get it. Are my thoughts towards trent inconsistent?

Or is the case that I'm inconsistent by not sring you in my latest read?

It's late, my head hurts, and I've gotten nowhere on my betsy iso. Why are you so hard to read betsy....

I played a lot of flash mafia/epicmafia. The sites since been deleted, but days were 10 minutes... not 48 hours.

The inconsistency mentioned is specifically within your posts in the game. I mean I could believe that you legitimately have a logical thought process behind your read, but I do believe that you probably are reading the game even as mafia, so it's probably not really a very relevant point. My main scumread on you is because I feel like you haven't done as much to develop the gamestate as I think you should have.

Post automatically merged: Oct 17, 2022

The night kill kinda threw me for a loop tbh i think

Who did you think was going to die?

Also, there's not a lot to observe off of the night kill. The absolute simplest explanation for basically every night kill going forward is probably... the mafia thought that they were Det.

 

[tessa grace]

I played a lot of flash mafia/epicmafia. The sites since been deleted, but days were 10 minutes... not 48 hours.

The inconsistency mentioned is specifically within your posts in the game. I mean I could believe that you legitimately have a logical thought process behind your read, but I do believe that you probably are reading the game even as mafia, so it's probably not really a very relevant point. My main scumread on you is because I feel like you haven't done as much to develop the gamestate as I think you should have.

Hey I play mafia.gg occasionally and days are between 3-6 minutes so I def get what you mean. But I find the slower pace much more stressful than short pace, surprisingly. Dunno if that makes sense. Its cool to see other mafia players from separate sites though!

I feel personally that I have contributed to the gamestate, possibly not substantially, but in some ways, yes. (as much as one can when she misses the first half of day one, anyways) I don't know what you're expecting from everybody in the game to be considered "contributional", though? I don't have any information to share because I'm a vanilla, so all that I can do is provide my opinions and reads on people. If you were voting against trent because he didn't provide any reads and asked a lot of questions (which I also think contributed to the game) and now you're against me because I'm providing reads but not asking as much questions, I don't know what you're expecting? That kind of logic doesn't really line up and, funny enough, seems inconsistent to me. If what I've shared hasn't been enough to develop the gamestate I'm not quite sure what you're looking for.

Post automatically merged: Oct 17, 2022

I'm going to try to finish this iso on random and betsy and post before I sign off for the night. May have a couple other drabble posts as well.

 

[Totally_RandomYT]

I'm going to sleep rn, I'll only be able to check in around 12:20 pm CST sooooo maybe I'll be able to check earlier but idk c ya then.

 

[tessa grace]

Okay this is my last large post today.

BetsySundrop: The one I’ve been dreading, haha why do you have so many posts betsy WHY
Pros:
Also stirred the pot at the beginning with the starlit vote, I felt like her reasoning here:

Same. I might vote starlit. Sometimes a vote can result in activity...lol.

Post automatically merged: Oct 15, 2022

Voting @StarlitGlitch ...don't want a replay of previous games with inactive, unsolvable slots, but it's possible starlit will show or ask for replacement. Still plenty of time...

And here:

Was hoping a wolf would jump on the bait I threw but...nope, dangit.

Were pretty consistent. She wasn’t sure of the rules, voted as bait to get activity/a reaction, and then took her vote off as soon as she figured out the rules. This kind of play wouldn’t be needed if Betsy was mafia, I think she would’ve played it more safe throughout day 1.
OKAY I PROMISE this is my LAST thought on the ‘got it’ situation. I teased with the idea that she had brought it up as a sort of reason to tunnel Random, but looking back it’s probably something I would do (by that I mean randomly noticing something small and overthinking it entirely… yep for sure something I would do) I think she mentioned this for the sake of adding something to the game, which isn’t bad in any sort at all.
Cons:
Not a lot of content? Like small posts with responses and yes the whole ‘got it’ situation but besides that I don’t feel like I could understand her reads too well.
I think it was @Sidney who had asked why I said I wanted to hear more from her right before the end of d1. This is the post that left me the most curious:

My last reads are Sheep, Tae, and Trent...

And I just have no idea. I did iso and reread the whole game thread. I'm gonna include as much of my thoughts as possible and try not to be confusing.

At first, I had trent high on my sus list (no offense) because of the immediate no elim vote and the intro post pointing to a lazy d1. Most of the more experienced players seem to really go for the d1 elim, which is the only way for town to strike maf.
(I understand the numbers of 2 no elims in a row being potentially beneficial in gathering more info via the nk or the det, but have never seen the proposed seriously becausecof the drawbacks).
Also seemed to want to keep the early game relaxed and remove d1 posting/elim pressure, which I'm not a fan of as it's not helpful for town. I understand the explanations, but don't necessarily agree with the playstyle. Reminds me of geoni a bit, in that it seems really hard to tell what he's thinking, but you know he's paying attention. But to what purpose? Identify wolf or exploit town weakness? I haven't seen any sus teaming, tunneling, wagon pushing...? I wish i had a better read, but I just don't.



Yeah that's why I dismissed it. It is frustrating though. But out of shawo or random that's easy, random (no offense random). It doesn't seem like random will be more helpful as time goes on.

And as far as the possibility of random being the det and misyeeted... I understand the whole lay low and don't be sus, but there is a certain responsibility on the det to at least show some town.
It's very frustrating...

I just wanna know what’s going through Betsy’s head right now? Has anything changed for her, can she read anyone better? I also think her opinions on Tae had some really good points and I want to see where she goes with that after seeing the results of n1.

While we might end up voting each other, I'm likely going to vote tae today. I'll explain my reasoning, and it's based on a few things, not an omgus, as I've had tae on my sus list from early on (post #52).

Not a pro or con, but I noticed she was not very happy with the Trent vote (but neither was I) and we both ended up voting for Trent. I honestly would’ve hopped on to Tae with you Betsy if you had wanted.

I’m going to say townlean for Betsy because I feel that 1. I haven’t heard enough from her but the energy is matching (so yes this is slightly a gut read) and 2. It seems that her efforts to provide information and something good to town haven’t always been successful but they seem like genuine attempts resulting in nothing rather than trying to make it look like she’s contributing.