Also, there's not a lot to observe off of the night kill. The absolute simplest explanation for basically every night kill going forward is probably... the mafia thought that they were Det.
Morning. I am regrettably awake as I feel like straight up garbage today. I don't particularly enjoy discussing my private life on these forums so I won't elaborate further. Probably going to go lay down again in a bit.
My initial thoughts going in to d2 are that, quite simply, my PoE yesterday was trash and was far too gullible. I probably don't even need to say that as both of my votes turned out as they did. I need to re-evaluate every single person here.
I just wanna know what’s going through Betsy’s head right now? Has anything changed for her, can she read anyone better? I also think her opinions on Tae had some really good points and I want to see where she goes with that after seeing the results of n1.
Yep I have another overthinking issue coming up in the next post...
But first to clarify from eod. (On mobile, so chaotic eod always leaves me trying to catch up and missing something).
Shawo asked tae if maf was leading the vote on trent.
I have no idea. Random really gives me ghost vibes, but having no play exp together I'm holding out and seeing where d2 goes with random. He's here and participating, that's a +.
I would have preferred tae (and I could be wrong but was my strongest sus) but was trying to avoid no elim so went with trent.
When trent gave up I couldn't figure why not fight for it. Maf sometimes acts chill because the desperate wolf look won't help them survive. But looking back, the best explanation I have is that he knew he wasn't the det and didn't want us to flip to someone who might be the det, which is a good town move. So rip trent, good move.
Looking at the nightkill now- why starlit? Starlit voted no elim, didn't strong sus anyone, and I think that's the point. Starlit was a target we don't get much info from.
Most people left alive are either myself, shawo, or someone sussing myself/shawo. Feels like a set up.
Random is one exception, but he was on plenty of 'will vote' lists, so an easy d2 target. The d2 participation from random will help town, a lot. Unless he's wolfy, of course. Hope to see plenty from random today.
@Totally_RandomYT What are your views on the game if I tell you there's a 0% chance Shawo is being coached. That seems to be your main reason for sussing him. Shawo has played by far the most maf games of everyone still alive. I believe many people have confirmed this even before d2.
I'm sorry, I've looked and I can't find anywhere I've said that. If you could point me to the post, maybe I could see why I would've said something so definite?
And yay, a mega overthinking (can't help it, sorry, lol) question incoming... since got it was dealt with, yall need something else to ruminate on.
D2, sidney posted a prepped reads list. There is a reason I am sus of prepped lists (shell/dan you devious, sneaky wolves).
Curious why you didn't include starlit or sheep in your numbered, prepped list.
Also - and here comes the tinfoil hat, really tinfoil - the entire list is all written in same style (present) except for one line - "all i had on starlit was" which was different (past). Tinfoil - wolf!sidney forgot to include the nk in the prep and had to add it. Non-tinfoil - jeez I'm overthinking everything at this point, I need to take off the tinfoil hat.
In my defense, legend has it that the word "the" got a wolf out in previous game, so I had to ask.
since I’ll just be getting out of a meeting when the thread reopens, i prepped this as a first thoughts on what i missed
I’m not rlly concerned about the “got it” and willing to write it off like i did when first seeing- but WHAT was up with the no elim vote and random “idk it’s quiet” then dipping. Could be sus, could be low activity. I don’t trust them but don’t quite feel comfortable voting them yet either.
While I am concerned (slightly) about shawo’s interactions with random, they’ve given good reasoning and seemed to have been trying to push the game further.
Tae townread trent pretty hard from the get go for similar reasons people were mafreading them. (shawo pointed this out too)
originally i was worried it was betsy/shawo or now betsy/tae since they followed shawo in voting for trent. But it seems shawo @ ed both of them to prompt them to do so…That doesn’t seem anything certain.
NOW i worry betsy/tae’s dispute esp so late in the day when it didn’t seem to have much impact was manufactured.
I mentioned trent’s agreement with me worrying me; this is for the same reason him being cool and more certain seeming did. Similar reason why I’m more inclined to trust those that suss me and/or have differing opinions. Anyone trying to be too agreeable with me sets off alarm bells in my head that they’re trying to get my guard down
idk why tessa thinks I was ever no elim. I said multiple times I was just against killing inactive people today. Trent does not fit that bill. Sure, bandwagon, but when your options are elim an active player versus no elim? The active player makes way more sense.
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Updated reads as of before d2 start
all i had for starlit was “not enough interaction”
shawo still confuses me but has had a handful of good plays for town and seems to working towards solving. Trent was town but still…like I’m not confident clearing them yet but I’d want to keep them around for a bit and probably wouldn’t vote unless something changes.
tae just generally reads as aggressive to me. Unsure if general play style or sus
random I’m still confused here to be real. - i see something was posted by them so i’ll read and respond to that
betsy I now think could be mafia of their own right.
tessa grace - not certain yet but seems to just be confused on my stances. townlean.
sheep still gives me uneasy vibes.
I just got out of a meeting and now have to get back home, so prolly sporadic posts for a bit
Last question for now (actual question, no tinfoil)... I am interested in the map of how you went from these town!betsy reads (only maf!betsy if shawo is maf, with shawo being the sus)....
I’m not even sure shawo is really maf, he was confusing to me last game too. But if shawo IS maf, betsy is my current pick for maf 2. Not just betsy alone, like, with shawo as a prereq
it’s the first on betsy, betsy seems town to me but that specific engagement makes me think potentially both could be maf. but otherwise i think betsy looks town so far or at least haven’t seen anything that suggests otherwise
I just found it odd since we hadn’t even gotten a response from everyone yet
it’s just my biggest gut towards “these two may be working together as maf” though i don’t have anything that scream maf on either. I’m curious to see why shawo stopped gunning for me; that may clear up more
Looking at the nightkill now- why starlit? Starlit voted no elim, didn't strong sus anyone, and I think that's the point. Starlit was a target we don't get much info from.
Random is one exception, but he was on plenty of 'will vote' lists, so an easy d2 target. The d2 participation from random will help town, a lot. Unless he's wolfy, of course. Hope to see plenty from random today.
I'm sorry, I've looked and I can't find anywhere I've said that. If you could point me to the post, maybe I could see why I would've said something so definite?
And yay, a mega overthinking (can't help it, sorry, lol) question incoming... since got it was dealt with, yall need something else to ruminate on.
D2, sidney posted a prepped reads list. There is a reason I am sus of prepped lists (shell/dan you devious, sneaky wolves).
Curious why you didn't include starlit or sheep in your numbered, prepped list.
Also - and here comes the tinfoil hat, really tinfoil - the entire list is all written in same style (present) except for one line - "all i had on starlit was" which was different (past). Tinfoil - wolf!sidney forgot to include the nk in the prep and had to add it. Non-tinfoil - jeez I'm overthinking everything at this point, I need to take off the tinfoil hat.
In my defense, legend has it that the word "the" got a wolf out in previous game, so I had to ask.
no, i just had starlit as that and it felt weird to not edit the list once i knew the nk. I had the same thing for starlit on my list(s? did i do one?) yesterday. had it been someone like major on my list and i would have withheld from updated opinions. this was basically my end of d1 takes i never got to post.
The vast majority of the list was written that morning rereading the end of day one, then i went back and debated deleting starlit opinion or not. Since i didn’t have much, i opted not to delete it, but change it to the past tense since it was no longer relevant.
Last question for now (actual question, no tinfoil)... I am interested in the map of how you went from these town!betsy reads (only maf!betsy if shawo is maf, with shawo being the sus)....
And consistent reads where you have no maf sus on either as individuals, but you sus teamwork, which is good to look for...
Honestly? Nothing more than a gut feeling off of day one to move you to my sus list versus just sus if X. This was me catching up my thoughts what I missed d1, since I ran in late. I was hoping it would generate more discussion, so i do appreciate the questions.
I think at the moment it is mostly possible teamwork that’s got me suspecting you, which should maybe be a stronger indicator of town at this point?
I posted some tinfoil questions for you, lol. Believe it or not, a lot of my tinfoils stem from past game trauma of being eaten by really devious wolves lol... I have more questions probably through the day but on and off so might take time.
@tessa grace what is your reaction of shawo voting you?
@tae interested in hearing your take/reads on everything eod and up to now. Also would like to know why you were so confident in trent being town, especially when his play for a quiet d1 indicated otherwise. Nobody can be 100% sure of anyone else, but you seemed more than confident in a trent town flip.
@Totally_RandomYT As you've listed shawo, I'm wondering if you see any partner indicators or teams working together. Keep reading/posting. Everything helps.
Actually, @BetsySundrop. Could I ask for your thoughts on Tessa right now? Does anything stand out to you? We've both played with Tessa a fair bit and we've seen her in all sorts of settings. I need to know if you're being pinged by one specific thing that's really bothering me right now.
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By right now I mean d1 Tessa, sorry for the confusion. I'm quite exhausted and about to go take a nap since I'm losing the battle against outside circumstances rn.
Ah, got it. That's the death post, lol. I try to leave a final - if i die, the following players need to be investigated - type of post. Usually includes my strongest susses, but is never 100% confident.
It also helps save me I think. If I happen to put the fatal fos on an actual wolf, killing me would be too obvious, so I live.
Actually, @BetsySundrop. Could I ask for your thoughts on Tessa right now? Does anything stand out to you? We've both played with Tessa a fair bit and we've seen her in all sorts of settings. I need to know if you're being pinged by one specific thing that's really bothering me right now.
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By right now I mean d1 Tessa, sorry for the confusion. I'm quite exhausted and about to go take a nap since I'm losing the battle against outside circumstances rn.
I haven't got to tessa yet, sorry. I have more time in evenings, so will have more in depth looks tonight. But for now, I didn't see tessa as sus d1. Seemed like the normal tessa I usually see. I haven't really read through shawo’s in depth on tessa yet, just skimmed. Sorry not much help right now.
Honestly? Nothing more than a gut feeling off of day one to move you to my sus list versus just sus if X. This was me catching up my thoughts what I missed d1, since I ran in late. I was hoping it would generate more discussion, so i do appreciate the questions.
I think at the moment it is mostly possible teamwork that’s got me suspecting you, which should maybe be a stronger indicator of town at this point?
Quick add before I'm off for a bit. I find original susses and theories to generally be more town than wolf. This was what moved tae higher on my sus list, for following along other theories but not really coming up with any.
After review by several TBT Staff members, a small number of posts in this thread have either been edited or deleted. We know it's problematic for information to go missing in mafia games, so in order to avoid this happening again we'd like to make everyone aware of our Guidelines for TBT Mafia sticky. If everyone could please take a few minutes to read over the guidelines and make the effort to follow them then we won't need to interfere with the game again.
hi sorry on mobile, i have a weird work schedule and a hard time existing. booting up my computer rn but let me answer betsy rq.
MOBILE PUT THE QUOTE UNDER BUT IVE TRIED TO FIX IT And I CANT.
ok so my strong trent!town started from the beginning. i just didn’t post defined easy reads until second half of d1. i’ve played mafia with trent for many games back some years ago- and my entire gut read of him was 100% based off his meta i know from previous games. he was his normal d1 trent!town meta. the only outlier was his strong stance for noemil, which is why i half null read him bc i’ve never seen that. his lack of fighting for himself strikes me more as a (i’m tired irl and wanted out) than a mafia ploy to make town question. which is bad town in my books but like, from everything i know about trent, he was playing town!meta.
@tae interested in hearing your take/reads on everything eod and up to now. Also would like to know why you were so confident in trent being town, especially when his play for a quiet d1 indicated otherwise. Nobody can be 100% sure of anyone else, but you seemed more than confident in a trent town flip.
@shawo i voted no elim bc in my head it makes more sense to not elim than to literally elim my second strongest town read. like, i feel that your push on to trent came out of left field and i’d rather eat my own socks than push someone i read as town.
i’ve never played a game where no-elim happens so mechanically playing i can’t grasp the true downside to not eliming. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ maybe i’m dumb but i don’t regret voting no elim.
@Totally_RandomYT What are your views on the game if I tell you there's a 0% chance Shawo is being coached. That seems to be your main reason for sussing him. Shawo has played by far the most maf games of everyone still alive. I believe many people have confirmed this even before d2.
@Totally_RandomYT As you've listed shawo, I'm wondering if you see any partner indicators or teams working together. Keep reading/posting. Everything helps.
well, betsy, I think you (a little) have been too good to be true. I haven't seen you play any other games, but having someone chill with being kicked/killed? I feel like either
1) you're being honest,
or
2) you are maf trying to fake town by being chill with dying. Trent was that way and I didn't see you act this way until trent was gone. Once again, idk how u usually are in mafia games.
tae - kinda confuses me. Makes me think that he's maf but good at hiding it, or detective. if tae comes out with any info it won't really help cuz he could sus out another mafia member or be detective sharing news.
A lot is going through my head and I'm up and ready with some quick questions/comments etc.
Yep I have another overthinking issue coming up in the next post...
But first to clarify from eod. (On mobile, so chaotic eod always leaves me trying to catch up and missing something).
Shawo asked tae if maf was leading the vote on trent.
I briefly commented that if they were, it was shawo who lead the vote.
Tae responded to me-
So I think that was general confusion and wanted to clarify that I was not implying that tae led the votes.
I have no idea. Random really gives me ghost vibes, but having no play exp together I'm holding out and seeing where d2 goes with random. He's here and participating, that's a +.
I would have preferred tae (and I could be wrong but was my strongest sus) but was trying to avoid no elim so went with trent.
When trent gave up I couldn't figure why not fight for it. Maf sometimes acts chill because the desperate wolf look won't help them survive. But looking back, the best explanation I have is that he knew he wasn't the det and didn't want us to flip to someone who might be the det, which is a good town move. So rip trent, good move.
Looking at the nightkill now- why starlit? Starlit voted no elim, didn't strong sus anyone, and I think that's the point. Starlit was a target we don't get much info from.
Most people left alive are either myself, shawo, or someone sussing myself/shawo. Feels like a set up.
Random is one exception, but he was on plenty of 'will vote' lists, so an easy d2 target. The d2 participation from random will help town, a lot. Unless he's wolfy, of course. Hope to see plenty from random today.
TO CLARIFY -
I can't really be on too much, and I don't usually check the forums too much, I'm still new to this. I sort of joined this to get more experience, but here we are (also thx for an a+ )
I am an easy target and if I die, its easy to show. I don't think anyone will vote me, just since nobody knows too much abt me. I think maybe d3 or such idk. I may also be killed. Trying to be more active to help town so.
(Not making any judgement as to the explaination itself), but, Shawo did explain this, did you see that? Also, are you aware of how to ISO (isolate, i think) people? That way you can look at just their posts to try to read them
I’d be interested to hear your takes on their other posts, if any others stand out to you
well, betsy, I think you (a little) have been too good to be true. I haven't seen you play any other games, but having someone chill with being kicked/killed? I feel like either
1) you're being honest,
or
2) you are maf trying to fake town by being chill with dying. Trent was that way and I didn't see you act this way until trent was gone. Once again, idk how u usually are in mafia games.
This is basically where I am with Betsy. In their defense, Betsy was mostly the same yesterday in regards to the night kill? Though, that was also later in the day
tae - kinda confuses me. Makes me think that he's maf but good at hiding it, or detective. if tae comes out with any info it won't really help cuz he could sus out another mafia member or be detective sharing news.
I can't really be on too much, and I don't usually check the forums too much, I'm still new to this. I sort of joined this to get more experience, but here we are (also thx for an a+ )
I am an easy target and if I die, its easy to show. I don't think anyone will vote me, just since nobody knows too much abt me. I think maybe d3 or such idk. I may also be killed. Trying to be more active to help town so.
Being as active as possible and trying to post opinions and generate questions helps, I think (That’s what I’ve been trying to do)
Being kind of busy is understandable too; but definitely at least try to catch up on reading things that’ve been posted if you haven’t!
Not sure how helpful any of this is as this is just my second game, so I’m pretty new as well
i don't see how you not dying 100% makes you the perfect fall guy. not many sussed you d1 outside of my few gut feelings.
i actually don't see you as the fall guy here. and after comparing some of your posts ive read this morning compared to d1, your scum chat comment is most likely a tin foil thought + a townslip imo. my sus on you d1 was my own ver of tin foil wearing. i don't think you're 100% in the clear in my books but like, you're not my strongest scum lean by any means anymore. (oh wouldnt it be funny if i was det and inspected you last night.)