Dolby why would mafia choose ninja with cop/watcher? Cop/Tracker, yes, but cop/watcher, no. Mafia just...straight up chooses GF with a cop in play, period. Also don't forget that Cop/RB and Cop/Doc are going to produce the same likelihood of there being either a GF or strongarm (with GF still having the edge imo).
I'm not going to go to deep into this because I consider it counterproductive for town if I do, but I just want to say that there are some situations where scum doesn't go for GF with cop in play at this moment that I didn't account for when writing my analysis posts (though they don't change the results of my calculus). But besides that, I see ninja giving a freedom to kill for mafia when they have watcher(example, cop finds mafia and claims), while with tracker their freedom to kill just straight up doesn't matter since they just pass between. Same thing happens with cop/RBer. I'm not gonna see whether I agree with you but that's what I was thinking at the time.
This is kinda mindboggling me because I've never really had the ability to vote on what PRs will be in a game that I myself will be playing and I'm thinking about all the possibilities the way you are here but honestly in what world are you seeing ninja being chosen over the other two? The other two choices, strongman and godfather, evade the most town powers. I feel like cop/watcher is the safest option now that I've read your breakdown of our options but reading it reminded me that roleblocker is super useful in a situation where we can actually lynch strongarm first if that's chosen instead of GF (which is also a likelihood if the mafia pair analyze things through...basically this very breakdown you just provided them). And GF won't be chosen if Cop isn't chosen. Therefore upon further thought I think Watcher/Roleblocker is better than Tracker/Doctor if I also consider the Ninja possibility if I somehow convinced everyone to go with Tracker/Doctor.
Well let's go down this
If we select watcher/rber that's a choice for mafia that they don't want to get into. In my previous posts I said that rber isn't going to give town an extra ml unless they block two scum in a row (unlikely as it probably requires back to back scum blocks). And with two scum to start off that's even less likely, since scum will pass the kill between who's less likely to be blocked if they don't choose strongarm. Rber acts like a cop in the scenario that goon is lynched first here, and it's only slightly more powerful.
Now that I'm thinking more about it, that extra RB just plain isn't useful in general EXCEPT in the same manner as a cop, since getting the extra ML shouldn't matter, since once we get the extra ML we know the scum team anyway.
The problem with watcher/rber though is that cop/watcher has a higher chance of finding an mafia when there are two members, rber has essentially no chance of catching mafia, even if they do select ninja. And the perk of getting an extra ML if they successfully block twice is literally useless since we would have one by that point anyway. You pretty much said it yourself, GF is the perk for mafia that gives them an edge in cop/watcher because it's better, they have to think more in watcher/rber.
Also, if both mafia and psuedo-TI are on a person, one of the players is just bad in general, or trying to go for an out-play
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tbh, I'm slightly sus of rhino and jt (though I think that jt was bandwagoning on his buddy, which I considering non-AI (non alignment indicative)) for voting for tracker when I pretty much proved that in no circumstances is it a top-two role off that list
@DAD why not cop? why roleblocker?
I think that he presented his argument pretty well tbh in #59, though I disagree with it because the chance of an early game scum catch is pretty much 0 with rber, and as he said, probably 17% with cop. And the extra ML gained from two scum blocks is literally useless
