I can collect or not, my inspection seems more limited than caff's, as the person has to egg. But I can do whatever plan is best. I won't collect an egg until we have a firm plan that works. You can think it over on your flight?
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Mafia Salmon Run Mafia *main thread* [GAME OVER. SEE POST #460 FOR RESULTS.]
- Thread starter droqen
- Start date
I don't think it's been mentioned, but it's a good idea.
tessa grace
yeehaw
ah i forgot i was playing acnh so i'll probably be active later-
what no also how come you weren't nk?
I think I got caught up trying to figure a guaranteed win and lost the forest for the trees... caff it might be better to go ahead and vote/elim this day and try to hit maf? Can we do that and still have a decent night action plan for best chance of success for those in f3 if we miss?
(This could be the game for breaking curses...tessa, f3, town win....).
And also, good question.
My bedtime now, back on tomorrow.
tessa grace
yeehaw
Alright here's all d4 possiblities (which is f3 assuming we elim)
But we need to take into account possible nks and our elimination is key to this logic if we want a solid f3
| Shawo Betsy Caffline |
| Shawo Betsy Tessa |
| Shawo Betsy Ghost |
| Shawo Caffline Tessa |
| Shawo Caffline Ghost |
| Shawo Tessa Ghost |
| Betsy Caffline Tessa |
| Betsy Caffline Ghost |
| Betsy Tessa Ghost |
| Caffline Tessa Ghost |
shawo
Senior Member
actually NK is a very genuine play. I didn't consider it. I'll come back with some like math or something to back up some stuff.
you can egg and be dead, btw caffline.
Ok so given that eliminating here is a forced 50/50, we're essentially looking at the 2 most sus players being elim'd back to back.
So what are the other possible scenarios given an NK.
NK into 4 (premise, 2 players have abilities, 3 players egging.)
Going to split the scenarios into 2. One where cop is mafia, and one where cop is not mafia (cop in this case stands for both Betsy and Caff.)
Scenario 1: Both cops real, both cops don't egg.
One cop dies, we get one investigation into one town, we end up 33/33/33. We then NK again? and potentially get another investigation going weirdly, into a 50/50. This isn't actually a good scenario, the best case is the same, and the worst case is worse.
Scenario 2: Both cops real, one cop eggs/doc.
This one is weird because it's actually the same scenario regardless of whether the doc is mafia or not. Cop checks one of the four alive players. Doc dies, or the other cop dies. Depending on checks, the game ends up in a forced 50/50 (cop vs mafia).
The worst case is like "cop checks player who dies, then we nk again, then we end up in a 50/50." But even "Cop checks mafia right away" is just a forced 50/50 anyways since it's d4.
Uhh.
Yeah it's terrible LOL.
NK bad.
Anyways - optimal play is both cops don't egg, and everyone else eggs, and we just eliminate a player amongst the 3 that egged. Following that, both cops can check opposite players: If ghost dies, caff checks shawo, betsy checks tess. Game is a garunteed forced 50/50 with ONE caveat.
If either cop has a killing ability the game ends on the spot.
However!
Doc/Cop does not end up in said forced 50/50.
Say for example, shawo dies, and caff checks tess, mafia can kill tess, making the cop check irrelevant, meaning there's no forced 50/50.
The only reason to do the second situation over the first is again, if betsy has a killing ability (since it HAS to be caff who doesn't egg with ghost.)
What I was trying to communicate earlier to you betsy, was that it makes no sense to allow ghost to not egg when you not egging has both a better result and is a lower risk play for you. There's no reason to allow mafia to use their ability, given the circumstances.
I think the last thing I have to say is that. I don't really townread ghost. I kinda townread tessa? but that's only cuz she nailed mafia day 1. But like I genuinely believe both cops are probably town.
I guess my reads list looks something like "Betsy -> caff = tessa -> ghost?"
So that's the other driving reason for why I want ghost to egg. cuz like. I think ghost is mafia. it makes the most sense to me I think.
I mean I think town probably squeezes the win out in the 50/50. But if I die!! I want to die knowing that ghost eggs. you feel.
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you can egg and be dead, btw caffline.
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Ok so given that eliminating here is a forced 50/50, we're essentially looking at the 2 most sus players being elim'd back to back.
So what are the other possible scenarios given an NK.
NK into 4 (premise, 2 players have abilities, 3 players egging.)
Going to split the scenarios into 2. One where cop is mafia, and one where cop is not mafia (cop in this case stands for both Betsy and Caff.)
Scenario 1: Both cops real, both cops don't egg.
One cop dies, we get one investigation into one town, we end up 33/33/33. We then NK again? and potentially get another investigation going weirdly, into a 50/50. This isn't actually a good scenario, the best case is the same, and the worst case is worse.
Scenario 2: Both cops real, one cop eggs/doc.
This one is weird because it's actually the same scenario regardless of whether the doc is mafia or not. Cop checks one of the four alive players. Doc dies, or the other cop dies. Depending on checks, the game ends up in a forced 50/50 (cop vs mafia).
The worst case is like "cop checks player who dies, then we nk again, then we end up in a 50/50." But even "Cop checks mafia right away" is just a forced 50/50 anyways since it's d4.
Uhh.
Yeah it's terrible LOL.
NK bad.
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Anyways - optimal play is both cops don't egg, and everyone else eggs, and we just eliminate a player amongst the 3 that egged. Following that, both cops can check opposite players: If ghost dies, caff checks shawo, betsy checks tess. Game is a garunteed forced 50/50 with ONE caveat.
If either cop has a killing ability the game ends on the spot.
However!
Doc/Cop does not end up in said forced 50/50.
Say for example, shawo dies, and caff checks tess, mafia can kill tess, making the cop check irrelevant, meaning there's no forced 50/50.
The only reason to do the second situation over the first is again, if betsy has a killing ability (since it HAS to be caff who doesn't egg with ghost.)
What I was trying to communicate earlier to you betsy, was that it makes no sense to allow ghost to not egg when you not egging has both a better result and is a lower risk play for you. There's no reason to allow mafia to use their ability, given the circumstances.
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I think the last thing I have to say is that. I don't really townread ghost. I kinda townread tessa? but that's only cuz she nailed mafia day 1. But like I genuinely believe both cops are probably town.
I guess my reads list looks something like "Betsy -> caff = tessa -> ghost?"
So that's the other driving reason for why I want ghost to egg. cuz like. I think ghost is mafia. it makes the most sense to me I think.
I mean I think town probably squeezes the win out in the 50/50. But if I die!! I want to die knowing that ghost eggs. you feel.
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Caffline
Senior Member
Ah right, day elim doesn’t affect the egg thing. I’m good with your plan, except I’d have to investigate tessa because yours will just show you can eliminate either way right? And then Betsy can investigate you.
Ah, I get what you're saying now. I do want to think it over, but I get it. And caff has to investigate someone else than you.
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I just posted this same thought, lol.
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As we can't predict the nk, I think shawo possibly, maybe has a decent plan, with caffs change.
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Its not a weapon. It's a jacket that gives me a "ninja squid" stealth ability.
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Which is why I thought it was so lame d1.
Caffline
Senior Member
I know you wanted to use it on Shawo - but what was the reasoning to not use it on someone else last night? You were willing to get an egg today and not use your ability at all. We get really little chance to use our ability even once, why waste an opportunity even if it’s just to 100% verify town.
Also, does your ability announce the next day if you used it or targeted someone with it?
Already answered this same question from you a couple times. Feels weirdly railroady at this point. But for why I wanted to use it on shawo, read through the d2 posts where we talked about it. I was planning to use it on shawo last night, but after ghost got the last egg I asked shawo if he and I were still alive (which since you had already said you were pr, I figured you would be the nk and we'd at least make it this far) I could use it today, if it wouldn't interfere with his ability, which would mean him egging. He had no problem with that. Also, I already answered the other question, too - mine doesn't say it announces.
For egging today, answered that already as well- ghost said he didn't want to egg. We need three. So if ghost refuses, one of us is going to have to, or we automatically lose. I stated it didn't matter to me which of us it was, I'm good with whatever plan is best, and I can wait until either ghost changes his mind or we figure who is going to egg instead of ghost. But I really don't want to lose because of eggs.
Caffline
Senior Member
Sorry, I’m so bad at keeping track and remembering everything. I more meant why didn’t you use it on ghost? Tessa and I have a good chance to be town, but ghost is a wild card. He’s probably town by people’s meta reads but that isn’t based on any specific or concrete actions. That could have given town a confirmed shield ability holder.
Also, shawo mentioned they were willing to egg and not use their ability. Why not just ask shawo to not use their ability for that night? We’d know the next morning because his weapon is announced the next day.
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I know I’m just echoing a lot of what shawo already asked and you already answered, but I’m not making sense of the reasonings.
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Well that was the original thought. Shawo was willing, I was willing, but ghost got there first with the egg (It happened pretty quick, so I didn't think shawo was dodging getting the egg, ghost just happened to get there first). And I was more concerned with shawo at the time than ghost. I was pretty much town reading tessa. Also, you are here today. I didn't think you would be, so I didn't check you, as I figured I might be the one left to check.
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I think it's very obvious. Maybe read back on d2 when it was brought up? I don't understand what you are missing. At eod yesterday, I had it in my mind that, well, caff is probably dead, and I'll check shawo next day if we are still alive, so didn't consider using it.
And after shawo made a good case against elundor, I was more thinking of shawo after elundor flipped inkling, because of the ability posts between them. I might croak and miss out on using it, but better to have the chance, at least.
And for the egg thing I really don't see what is so complicated about it-
- ghost doesn't want to egg, you or I will have to. Either of us can. It's that simple. If you don't see that, then I really don't know what to say. We can't lose by egg.
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shawo
Senior Member
if ghost isn't egging I think we should elim ghost.
I mean the simplest reason is that ghost, as mafia, has some sort of wincondition involving them not egging today. If they can strongarm not getting the egg they can win.
I mean understandably the worst possible scenario is ghost!town decides that they really want to use their ability, and refuses to egg, and we go into d4, but I think ideally ghost!town also eggs under the pressure of being voted.
I mean, for what it's worth, I want ghost elim'd anyways. For like, a lot of reasons.
@tessa. you should probably just egg first time you check the thread. your ability isn't super useful anymore, and no matter what happens it'll be a nice safety net.
I've already egged and voted ghost. I'll try to be on before day end this time but really, no promises.
BTW: did we ever get an update on what would happen if you used your ability on me/elundor with egg.
I mean inherently we can just avoid the subject, I'm just more curious about it than not.
I mean the simplest reason is that ghost, as mafia, has some sort of wincondition involving them not egging today. If they can strongarm not getting the egg they can win.
I mean understandably the worst possible scenario is ghost!town decides that they really want to use their ability, and refuses to egg, and we go into d4, but I think ideally ghost!town also eggs under the pressure of being voted.
I mean, for what it's worth, I want ghost elim'd anyways. For like, a lot of reasons.
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@tessa. you should probably just egg first time you check the thread. your ability isn't super useful anymore, and no matter what happens it'll be a nice safety net.
I've already egged and voted ghost. I'll try to be on before day end this time but really, no promises.
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BTW: did we ever get an update on what would happen if you used your ability on me/elundor with egg.
I mean inherently we can just avoid the subject, I'm just more curious about it than not.
Ghost2008
Senior Member
I have been egging for the past two days and would like to use my abilities ok?
And honestly shawo I think your mafia because your throwing sus at me for not wanting to egg and you’ve been sus since d1
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And honestly shawo I think your mafia because your throwing sus at me for not wanting to egg and you’ve been sus since d1
