Townlocks
Punchy
Antonio
Punchy is a provisional townlock and I would be very surprised, but wouldn't eat my hat, should he flip scum. But he's an uncced cop, and considering my own experience with 15 player setups that is not a claim that scum makes wanting to survive and as I said before, when scum KP drops from two to one on Day One they might as well surrender because it makes the game so much more difficult for them
As for Antonio, I feel like he's kinda been made a punching bag, but what scum posts this three minutes before they're expecting to be lynched? I consider this as tantamount to a townslip from him
Welp, I'm going to be lynched so I'm going to claim. I'm just a regular townie without no special abilities. The reason why I want to claim is because once I die and you see that my claim is True, I want you guys to follow my death wishes and avenge me. I don't mind dying because I just wanted to be a replacement. Here's the list:
1) Look into the people who voted for me, besides dolby and ghost. Dolby can't decide and ghost was doing it just for punchy.
2) Punchy claimed out of desperation and is more aggressive then usual self. Look into my post about my test.
3) Please look into my reason why I think rune claim is false. His reason is sketchy and you guys say mafia won't do that but mafia would do that since no one will think mafia would do that. Look into my post for my reasons.
It was nice playing!
This would give us WAY to much information on him to analyze should he be scum and is an extremely bad play to make when he thinks the vote can't be changed (he was in the lead by two at the time I believe, so he needed literally everyone there who hadn't already switched to switch if I remember who was there right), specifically through the people whomst he's called out
Of note, this kinda makes me think that the lynch was somewhat useless informationwise, as I view all three major candidates as town (Punchy, Antonio, and Waffles). Punchy was taken off the table and both Antonio and Waffles hadn't claimed (so no distinguishing factor for scum going for absent blue blood potential). I would also be astounded if none of the pressure on both Punchy and Antonio is from mafia
Third-Party
Runeraider
If you think he's mafia, he's not. If you think he's hostile TP you really need to provide justification for that view
This leaves me with: Ghost, calamity, Evan, Farobi, ILY, Dedenne, Kammm, Silver, Locket/Philemon, and Byngo/Curry as people who I see as having ANY scum potential. The last two are null to me, so far I haven't really seen anything alignment indicative or important from them or their replacements (exempting Philemon, but I'm not really sure how to take that from him).
Null-Lack of relevant contributions
Locket/Philemon
Byngo/Curry
Putting Philemon on top simply for displaying common sense regarding Punchy
Ghost, calamity, Evan, Farobi, ILY, Dedenne, Kammm, Silver
Ordered from most to least town imo: Calamity,Ghost, Evan, ILY, Farobi, Dedenne, Kammm, Silver
These are definetely more motivated by my personal opinions on the pressure being placed on Punchy and Antonio, which is only slightly less unfounded than any pressure being placed on Rune at this point. Farobi's placement in here has definetely dropped for asking Punchy who he has going to inspect and once he began to be pressured try to turn it around on Punchy for claiming that he's "Grasping at straws"
Kam-Farobi link? That was like an hour apart and I was even closer in time to Evan's post who is also not
The first half of this list is barely distinguishable from each other in terms of towniness and suspicion, distinctly more towny than the later half, but also haven't done anything to make me particularly comfortable strongly townleaning them. Both Evan and ILY have been making sense, and they haven't done anything that I find to be particularly mafia motivated, however they haven't done anything that they wouldn't do as maf. Ghost has done nothing, but I feel that during the panic after Punchy's claim he would have pretended to leave or give an excuse to leave his vote on Punchy. Calamity has been absent but I still think that he's town because his train of thought, while linear, did seem town-motivated to me at the time
I especially don't like Kammm and Silver's continued pressure on Punchy, particularly Kammm for refusing to believe that a cop WOULDN'T CC then and there. They 100% would (unless they weren't online at the time). Although Silver's push on Punchy seemed more half-hearted and logical, but it also continues the trend of bandwagoning onto poor options
I would prefer the lynch tomorrow to be in the Farobi-Silver section of the list here
