I did a combination of farming balloons and buying/trading on TBT to get the full Tree's Bounty, Mush, and Maple Leaf recipe sets for both my S/O and my own main + side characters. Yes, for the two side characters, I didn't have to get them this year, but I am a rip-the-bandaid-off-asap type of person.
I really liked the mechanism for obtaining Spooky recipes in October. It gave you another reason to spend time talking with your residents, and you were pretty much guaranteed to get all the recipes by the end of the month. You could speed up this process if you have the Nintendo Online subscription by visiting other islands with villagers crafting a Spooky recipe.
I think 90% of my playtime in November was spent farming balloons. There were some evenings where I gave up after an hour of running up and down the beach, only to get crafting materials. Then the next night, I would get a seasonal recipe (which may or may not be a duplicate) maybe once every five or so balloons.
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It might be just bad RNG luck, but I've never gotten a recipe from shooting down balloon while I was doing other stuff on my island, which is really unfortunate for folks who want to decorate with the seasonal items but may only have short periods of time throughout the day to play the game.