you claimed right around when i was trying to get everyone to unvote dolby and lynch you, and people were starting to unvote dolby. you claimed when i was criticizing you for voting dolby, when i was telling you that you're a better player than to act like this. you had to either claim or face me pushing even harder on you when i was trying to control the lynch off of dolby. so of course the choice was easy for you to claim there. because cop is a town role usually, and you found 3rd party. so not only would you look good after lynching him, but you also removed the threat of his KP. you claimed not because you wanted to get dolby lynched. that would've been easy to do without claiming, all you had to do was make a case or just keep your vote. almost everyone wanted to lynch him anyway, he had 5 votes before you even claimed. he had 7 but two people unvoted, and i was trying to get people to vote you instead. you claimed to save yourself, without a doubt. if you were town you would've just ignored the suspicion and kept hiding for another report. not out yourself on d2 when he was already close to majority anyway. you're smart enough to know better than that.
This makes a lot of sense.
So, thoughts:
- Heyden / Bowie's death was like for one of the following reasons:
to put attention on Karen - I remember making quite clear I felt there was scum between Daniel(Bowie) and Karen. Although since Karen claimed I've pretty much accepted that I'm like 99.9% wrong on that front.
to put attention on Zendel - Heyden's reads on Zendel were pretty clear.
to turn attention on Ness/Chick - Ness made a post at the start of the week (#1094) stating that he thought Bowie, Chick, and Heyden were scum. glow brought up this post on her reads list (#1455) posted late N2, stating she felt scum!Ness would had hidden a scum name along with two town names. Bowie & Heyden were on her town leans list, with Chick on scum leans, so I think it's possible these kills were made with glow's post in mind. So if Ness/Chick flip scum I'd expect the other one to as well.
Looking at it now, I think to frame Zendel / to get rid of two of glow's town leans to be the most likely.
- there are four active posters left from day one: Ness, Zendel, Aron, and Karen.
Unless we're to assume the entire scum team lay low day one, I find this strange. I'd have expected Ness to have been died before most, considering he was heavily town-read. Zendel/Aron were on most active D1 posters scum-reads. Karen I don't feel the need to talk about.
- all of these claimed blues can't be blue.
There are waaaay too much blue claims. Scum is definitely claiming blue. With a watcher and JoaT with a watch ability, I'd think the role cop is the least likely of these to be genuine. Karen's claim is the one I most believe.
- Oath's smart
He's right. Even though I think Cleb's scum it's unlikely a role cop is a killing role. His emphasis on finding a killing role is pro-town.
- So who are the killing roles?
Assuming all blue claims are honest about their power, by process of elimination it's between Ness, Chick, Aron, Byngo, and Zendel. I aim to try and whittle this down further but I'm going to be honest I'm kind of bored. LyLo sucks.