well i think there was 5 starting mafia and the most likely scenario is that dolby shot punchy believing there was no truth to punchy's role.
i think if we can answer whether or not dolby shot punchy, we can answer whether or not punchy's telling the truth. honestly, if i was dolby, i wouldn't have shot punchy, fearing that the weirdly specific role was too odd to be true. dolby seemed to believe the opposite:
i think dolby shot punchy, then was nightkilled, in addition to dying because of punchy's role.
there's also the possibility that dolby didn't shoot and he was simply killed, and upon seeing there was no third death punchy outed that he was "hit" --- but i find this less likely due to the timing of punchy's hit claim being so fast.
to me, it doesn't really make sense why mafia would have a veteran bomb role + a healing role (JOAT), which could give credibility to punchy's claim. something else that comes to mind is that if i was mafia with a veteran bomb role on my team, i wouldn't use KP on anyone who i believe would shoot punchy as vig, as they would die upon shooting the bomb and KP would be wasted.
that said, i think it's worth looking into how tina might have used veteran in the past. the common definition of veteran is a role that will shoot anyone who visits them, but on TBT its used as a different word for bulletproof (vested).
the part that throws me off is the part about a lover being included in his role PM, i feel like that's too weird to lie about in a time where nobody really believes what you're saying anyway.
i'm beyond hesitant to say this, but i do believe punchy is 100% telling the truth about his role. that doesn't make him town, but yeah that's where i'm at.