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The Bell Tree Fair 2024's closing ceremony is finally here! Event results, TBTer drawings, collectible reveal, quiz answers, art, stories, raffles, and more. You can find the six-part thread in the Bulletin Board! Thank you, everyone, for making our TBT birthday celebration so special!
You said you'd have more time and energy tomorrow morning so present a full-throttle case on Sheep that also shows a compelling amount of hard to fake towny thoughts? I have read Sheep's full ISO twice now. It needs to be really compelling if I am to risk being in a F3 with you if it turned out to be a wolfy case after all. I think all three of us are more or less at the stage where we are just figuring out which of the two unclears from our own POV we would prefer to win at day 3 or in the worst case scenario spend our miselimination on.
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Prefer to vote to win at day 3*
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I'll leave you alone to do your thing and I will do my thing and we'll see if Bianca/Tessa feel differently with our newer arguments/cases/whatever I guess. Think that's just how this goes honestly.
I'm starting my analysis right from page 1. I swear, if someone else barges in here and counterclaims cop and throws my analysis right out the window...
It's exactly true either way though. Whether I'm town OR mafia, with the situation we have (Tessa will survive to F3 and is confirmed town), I'd always rather wind up in an F3 with someone I can beat, because 'Tessa votes for the other person instead of me' is the win con.
(I'm on page 4 of analysis mode. I feel like this is gonna take a while)
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I'm definitely not considering Sheep rock solid, btw. The Ghost vote makes it a leap that they are mafia, but we'll see how these things stack up. I will present my findings when I have them.
I'm curious as to why you think, even if it's between the three of us, why you would desire to risk putting Tessa in a F3 with both of us as opposed to Tessa/Sheep/you or Tessa/Sheep/me. Sheep has so much more that suggests they are town than both of us, accumulatively. We have a freebie here.
Addressing Geoni in this post, will be back later with a Droqen one because I already know I will find way more suspicious things with him since much like a telemarketer he has been ringing me non-stop for this whole game. d2 cut off before I even got started on my d2 thoughts on him so there's going to be a lot.
@Sheep Villager your handling of me day 2 was like... giving me weird feelings but I didn't post on them because I wanted to exclude Ghost voters at the time for the sake of focusing on my Tessa theory but of course I straight up didn't get to post much at all D2. ANYWAYS what I am getting at is this post:
Idk why you didn't really want to go harder on me for my EoD because in all honesty as much as I can say what I did at EoD was out of concern that Ghost was looking like lost town and a wolf newbie would be defending themselves a little more it's still not a great look like...if I were outside looking in I'd be grilling the ever-living heck out of me for that but you instead just sorta...gave some simple reasons as to why I still seemed towny and that I would have been 'not letting Ghost act that way' - as much as this is true I wouldn't discount the possibilty of Ghost not being a controllable person either. Idk it's just that last time you were playing with me your MO was to kinda low-key placate me.
You said you'd be ISOing me so I want to see what you'll say about this in your re-eval but when I was rereading the thread I was compelled to go over the thought I didn't want to allow escape me just because you felt clear from your EoD1.
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@Sheep Villager when I say I would be grilling the ever living heck out of myself this is what I would be referencing/grilling if I didn't know what my alignment was already (as in...another townie who wasn't me, "outside looking in") and I feel I wasn't getting that level of uncertainty from you if that makes any sense. I was the only one to give any semblance of defense to the guy who flipped wolf roleblocker. Especially with me being fairly absent on day 2 like where's the paranoia?
@Sheep Villager general mafia rule of thumb for me is that people being contradictory, especially early on, is more of a towntell than a wolftell because wolves at the early stage are making sure they come off as consistent while it's still easy to do so because there's less to keep track of.
@BetsySundrop I just feel like you're OMGUSing Sheep's attack on you and saying you want to vote them over it?
Not happy with my top two going at it like this at EoD.
This post was a big part of why I've been so lenient on you. You were the only person in this whole thread who properly interrupted my Betsy tunnel. You pretty much grabbed both of us by the neck and if you were wolfing it I find it hard to believe you wouldn't let me and Betsy try to eliminate each other. What incentive would there ever be for a wolf to stop a town on town deathtunnel. However, I am also notoriously bad at forming a towncore so maybe I was being too lenient by letting you squeak by just due to this read.
Relooking at the situation I do see some interest from you about voting me, so I can't entirely close out the fact you may have been soft pushing me. It does conflict with your OMGUS comment which is interesting now that I think about it. The same post was also in response to a post from Betsy lamenting about not wanting to hit a lhf town over a potential wolf. It pings me as a bit wolfy to reinforce Betsys thoughts on lhf when Ghost was a wolf.
Here I am. Eod. Which I said I wouldnt do. Voting last minute. This is very frustrating. My gut feeling (could be wrong!!!) Is that either misty or sheep is a wolf. I think because its my first town game, i could be reading everything wrong, i have no idea. It could be two inactive wolves. Ghost vould be a wolf. I just dont know. But I'm going to have to vote, and while inactivity is bad, isnt it better to vote out a wolf than to kill lhf town?
Okay, I'm operating under the assumption the day ends at 4:00PM EST, and I'm going to switch my vote back to @Armadillo lover (I misremembered and thought I was already voting for them, sorry, I know last-minute vote swaps aren't the best). I think @Ghost2008 is also on the chopping block. Then maybe @Sheep Villager but I would not be happy about that yet? I also think I need to take off my Betsy blinders.
Also let me get this out of the way since I know it'll be asked of me and it's my worst looking moment: I really wanted Tessa eliminated over Ghost on day 1, because at that time, it was starting to feel like Ghost was being spewed town by how little defense there seemed to be of him and that he wasn't even trying to be around as heat started to pile onto him in the last thirty or so minutes, I would think even as newbie wolf he'd have jumped on whatever wagon seemed the most likely to work out (Tessa!) but also given the votes on him were so last minute he may not have been paying attention enough. Probably figured droqen would have succeeded in making Armadillo happen fairly easily because lets face it...Armadillo could have just as likely been yeeted there had I joined in pushing him rather than Tessa. It still feels bad to see him not get a chance to really play the game though regardless of alignment, hope he doesn't not want to try mafia again because of that experience but in that moment he was still lackluster in contribution compared to others so it didn't fully surprise me in spite of thinking he was townspewed.
Why have you been so consistent about this being AI btw? New wolves freeze all the time and in my wolf game with an experienced partner (Ace) I was told several times to specifically not post in the thread and to stay away until Ace gave me the go ahead to talk again (or until the day had ended). If it wasn't a downright freeze, given the floundering Ghost was doing is it really shocking to think about a world where his partner straight up told him to not say anything any more.
@Biancasbotique You've been playing on here the longest, have you ever had a wolf!Geoni in your game? Do you have any sort of meta memories on how he played it? Was he more of a calculative long term manipulator or someone who jumped at opportunities asap?
I think this, like with Geoni, is because that makes the vote easier - you think Sheep is 'almost-definitely-town', and it makes sense that you'd rather be in a group of [Town, Towncore, Unknown] than [Town, Unknown, Unknown]. I definitely get where you're coming from and I think that you taking this perspective 100% makes sense.
Imagine you weren't confirmed town by Bianca though, and you knew that F3 was going to be a vote between you (who you know is town but nobody else does) and someone else. Would you rather that someone else be:
A player who must, at this point, be mafia, but who everyone else has thought is town all game, or
A player who must, at this point, be mafia, and who is already kinda sus?
From Geoni's perspective (if he is town), right now the voting pool looks like this:
Geoni (definitely town)
Sheep Villager (almost definitely town)
droqen (pretty sus)
If Sheep gets voted out then F3 is a much easier battle: He just needs to convince you to vote for droqen, who is already pretty sus. Easy.
If droqen gets voted out then F3 is a much harder battle: He needs to fabricate a lot of evidence against Sheep.
In the short run, he's claiming that Sheep is too obviously town to be a viable vote, but I disagree with this as a 'how to win the whole game' strategy. And... it hasn't been presented as "I want to vote droqen because droqen is probably wolf", which I would be a lot more comfortable with handling. Instead it's "I'd rather end up in an F3 with an impossible opponent." Why?
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(I'm struggling because I think this is an equally bad strategy as wolf, so I really think it is just a strategic mismatch/miscommunication/something. None of this is "Geoni is wolf or not wolf", it's just frazzling me unnecessarily)
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(I'm sure by the time I'm done my read-through I will have formed an opinion on whether I think this behaviour is coming from a wolfy perspective. All I know right now is I don't get it from a towny perspective.)
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(Could it be posturing so that when F3 comes around Geoni can say "Look, I tried my best to give you a good F3, tessa! I'm as confused as you but I'm definitely town!" ?)
I think this, like with Geoni, is because that makes the vote easier - you think Sheep is 'almost-definitely-town', and it makes sense that you'd rather be in a group of [Town, Towncore, Unknown] than [Town, Unknown, Unknown]. I definitely get where you're coming from and I think that you taking this perspective 100% makes sense.
Imagine you weren't confirmed town by Bianca though, and you knew that F3 was going to be a vote between you (who you know is town but nobody else does) and someone else. Would you rather that someone else be:
A player who must, at this point, be mafia, but who everyone else has thought is town all game, or
A player who must, at this point, be mafia, and who is already kinda sus?
From Geoni's perspective (if he is town), right now the voting pool looks like this:
Geoni (definitely town)
Sheep Villager (almost definitely town)
droqen (pretty sus)
If Sheep gets voted out then F3 is a much easier battle: He just needs to convince you to vote for droqen, who is already pretty sus. Easy.
If droqen gets voted out then F3 is a much harder battle: He needs to fabricate a lot of evidence against Sheep.
In the short run, he's claiming that Sheep is too obviously town to be a viable vote, but I disagree with this as a 'how to win the whole game' strategy. And... it hasn't been presented as "I want to vote droqen because droqen is probably wolf", which I would be a lot more comfortable with handling. Instead it's "I'd rather end up in an F3 with an impossible opponent." Why?
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(I'm struggling because I think this is an equally bad strategy as wolf, so I really think it is just a strategic mismatch/miscommunication/something. None of this is "Geoni is wolf or not wolf", it's just frazzling me unnecessarily)
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(I'm sure by the time I'm done my read-through I will have formed an opinion on whether I think this behaviour is coming from a wolfy perspective. All I know right now is I don't get it from a towny perspective.)
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(Could it be posturing so that when F3 comes around Geoni can say "Look, I tried my best to give you a good F3, tessa! I'm as confused as you but I'm definitely town!" ?)
I really wanna see your analysis on sheep before I make any decisions. I don't understand why it would be logical to vote someone I'm not very suspicious when I'm more suspicious of both you and geoni. I'm not ruling out that sheep is potentially mafia, but they seem a lot more townlike than mafia, especially since geoni and you both have more evidence against you.
I really wanna see your analysis on sheep before I make any decisions. I don't understand why it would be logical to vote someone I'm not very suspicious when I'm more suspicious of both you and geoni. I'm not ruling out that sheep is potentially mafia, but they seem a lot more townlike than mafia, especially since geoni and you both have more evidence against you.
You should definitely vote for the person you're more suspicious of. I'll be getting my twin analysis down asap (I'm only on page 7 though... too much content lol) (I'll have a couple explanations for things I've been called out on as well)
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I mean - in this situation, for you (@tessa.) specifically, you should vote for the person you're more suspicious of unless everyone's voting all crazy wild and voting for the person you're most suspicious of means someone else will gets voted out ofc.
I'm up to page 9. Figured i should share what I have so far, this is taking much longer than expected and we do have limited time.
1. (#35) Geoni thinks 'Ghost' refers to 'GhostKid'. This is after the game starts so I assume he would know the name of his partner? +1 Town for Geoni
2. Sheep Villager planting many seeds of doubt? Lots that are hard to defend and/or go unresolved.
(#45) "Could be theatre" regarding Tessa/Misty, then adds no real content
(page 3 and on) Tunnelling on me for my no-elim question a bit, as well as for being idle, as well as saying "#64 feels a bit panicked". No quote there, not much backing it up, so all someone really gets at a glance is 'hmm droqen is acting panicked, that's suspicious..'
(page 6 and on) Tunnelling on Betsy's RV quite a bit! They acknowledge that it's tunnelling but that doesn't make it less doubt-seed-y imo
(#107) 'Funny old hot takes' spoiler on Misty, read this one yourself. Not a big seed but follows the pattern of "mild seed of doubt based on not much and then quickly dismissed"
(#114) Microread on me talking to Ghost and saying "if towny". Not big or content-ful enough to be defended against.
3. IMO Geoni and Sheep Villager have roughly the same level of interaction with Ghost. Geoni a little more, maybe. I get no reads from this.
4. Sheep mentions this above (#325) already but I want to say I agree with the first part... Geoni's "OMGUSing" post reads very town to me; why would a wolf try to break up a deathtunnel?
5. My pet Sheep theory right now: Betsy died N1 after Sheep tunnelled on her pretty hard. Could this be a response to Sheep trying to get people onboard the tunnel and failing? The last thing Sheep says about the Betsy tunnel is "I see no reason to engage the Betsy tunnel further at this point of EOD." At this point nobody had bitten. Why would Geoni (or I) be motivated to eliminate a towny in the sights of Sheep's lingering deathtunnel? From our perspective it is legitimate and still potentially alive.
I haven't found really anything to make me suspect Geoni, tbh. I can't say whether my reading here is too focused on Sheep because they're just more talkative and aggressive, but as of page 11 (I skimmed a bit to get to EoD) I am definitely more sus of Sheep than Geoni. I haven't even thought about the Ghost thing, but wanted to post my half-analysis for y'all to check out rather than take another hour or two before saying anything...
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To keep myself from tunnelling extremely hard on Sheep, here's the worst stuff I found on Geoni:
Ghost posts "hello peoples what happening?"
Geoni responds to say "I'm panicking because I'm finding too many redeeming qualities in everyone and struggling to find a wolf [..] Maybe it's you!"
This could be distancing, could be a sloppy attempt to kickstart some conversation (i.e. in mafiachat "hey Ghost post so i can respond". Maybe they're trying to form plans and the sloppiness is because it's a plan by Ghost that Geoni went along with?
Ghost and Geoni talk quite a bit, in particular there is one exchange where Geoni invites Ghost to "spend the time you got reading" and Ghost replies with "Wdym read me??" which at a glance I thought was very weird. Why word the response in that way, maybe it was like something they said in mafia chat? reading / read me are opposites. I think Ghost generally just has a very loose way of speaking though based on what I've seen so I could see that, uh, just being a Ghost thing.
You pretty much grabbed both of us by the neck and if you were wolfing it I find it hard to believe you wouldn't let me and Betsy try to eliminate each other. What incentive would there ever be for a wolf to stop a town on town deathtunnel.
Relooking at the situation I do see some interest from you about voting me, so I can't entirely close out the fact you may have been soft pushing me. It does conflict with your OMGUS comment which is interesting now that I think about it.
Sheep is saying that Geoni talked down Sheep's deathtunnel on Betsy, but that that might be sus because Geoni is pushing Betsy to vote for Sheep. Why would he eliminate Betsy N1 after playing that game?
I suppose in my own defense, the situation is that though Betsy was the one who started the vote-wagon on me (pointing out my idleness), she had pretty much backed off completely. Her opinion of me was steadily turning town, while Sheep was trying to keep the animosity going.
If you follow up on odd things why did you not push droqen at all if he was in the hmmmm category?
[..]
Where is this reaction pushing you say you're doing? You let Droqen off entirely with your RV. I see you question Misty once, but it all feels more defensive than anything.
It makes a lot of sense for Sheep to night elim Betsy...
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^ ignore (Note these quotes are not in order.) I put them in order right afterwards but forgot to delete my note. They are , infact, in order.
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^ regarding Why would he eliminate Betsy N1 after playing that game? I mean Why would Geoni eliminate Betsy N1 after stopping a town on town deathtunnel.
This point is moot imo. Ghost did not even have an account until the second half of d1, this is confirmed by the host. (Yeah.. host based information is not fun from a game point of view but it's out there) Geoni wouldn't have known his full name.
This point is moot imo. Ghost did not even have an account until the second half of d1, this is confirmed by the host. (Yeah.. host based information is not fun from a game point of view but it's out there) Geoni wouldn't have known his full name.
Hmm. You're right. I wonder how b100ming handled that in the backend.
It's not a major turning point anyway, it's more of a small square in a quilt of innocence and/or guilt. At the time of writing that down I was expecting to find more little pieces, but this was really the only thing that gave me a funny 'ping!' feeling. I could've left it out.
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(In particular, this being really meta/host-based, I feel kinda bad for bringing it up and will try not to give it any consideration.)
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(Also, the Geoni/GhostKid thing could 100% be theatre. I need a better word for noting down these moments -- things that hint at innocence, but which could be theatre depending on the meta of the person playing. How many weird little innocent coincidences can someone come up with? How many do they dare to?)
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@Sheep Villager regarding #267 why does it matter who Ghost TR'd? because it makes them more suspicious? or less?
(others... is this IoA?)
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(for posterity: sheep gave the 'like' to my first two merged posts, not the rest)
Given this was a new player the possibility of him TR'ing a team mate for no real reason wasn't something I was totally willing to dismiss, especially since it was clear he never even read the posts he was TR'ing.
Dang, reading through, the early N2 was more shocking than I remembered! Made my read a lot faster. Condolences to mafia for probably having some of their plans ruined. Not sure I'd have wanted Armadillo to get voted out, since she was a very ambiguous sort that would have helped confuse votes to F3...
Out of the last pool of players, Sheep Villager, Geoni, droqen, Biancasbotique, tessa., and Miss Misty, mafia chose to eliminate Miss Misty -- keeping in mind this was before they knew Bianca was going to spill the beans and reveal both her and tessa as town. (tyvm @Biancasbotique)
It makes sense that the night elim pool would be Miss Misty and Sheep Villager, since they are the most 'proven towny'. I don't think there's anything to read into the order there though (i.e. that Misty was eliminated over Sheep). D2, I think they both had sparkling reputations. Either would be a good pick.
I think I'm pretty much done analyzing reads and blame-casting. Now we're in the endgame and I'm going to go through everyone's theories and see what I've missed.
Given this was a new player the possibility of him TR'ing a team mate for no real reason wasn't something I was totally willing to dismiss, especially since it was clear he never even read the posts he was TR'ing.
Kinda makes sense, but then if theory here that he could have been TR'ing a bunch of random people including his mafia friend as a premeditated smokescreen , I don't think we really have much to go on. It's just some random noise that could indicate something or anything or nothing at all.
Sheep is saying that Geoni talked down Sheep's deathtunnel on Betsy, but that that might be sus because Geoni is pushing Betsy to vote for Sheep. Why would he eliminate Betsy N1 after playing that game?
Clarifying on this a bit; Geoni stopping the tunnel is not sus and is separate from my sussing.
What is sus is him saying in the tunnel stopping post that Betsys potential vote on me was omgus but then soft pushing in the next post despite that stance. Why humour an omgus vote at all.
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As a note to anyone wondering btw; The big fat droqen post hasn't been forgotten about. Unfortunately having a bad health day today and I'm trying to rest a smidge before I go at it since it's going to be a lot of writing.
Clarifying on this a bit; Geoni stopping the tunnel is not sus and is separate from my sussing.
What is sus is him saying in the tunnel stopping post that Betsys potential vote on me was omgus but then soft pushing in the next post despite that stance. Why humour an omgus vote at all.
Right, bad wording on my part, I didn't mean to imply that stopping the tunnel is related to your sussing - imo we're on the same page regarding his "talking down deathtunnel == very towny". I can see what you're saying here a little more clearly. But it seems more like "checking for clarification on Betsy's stance" than an attempt to rekindle her vote on you (Sheep).
p.s. while in the archives I noticed Betsy was still a bit dubious of me
So mayyybe my theory of 'Sheep night-eliminated Betsy because Betsy was too suspicious of Sheep and no longer suspicious enough of droqen' has a little leak in it. I'm going to hold onto it, anyone who checks it out please let me know if you find any other holes.
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(it was in very small casual text and i missed it completely across two or three reads over this game, so i think it could have easily passed under the radar/been ignored/dismissed/etc)
@Sheep Villager to be honest, Geoni is always killed night that I really don't see him endgame. He did win a game as mafia that stood out to me or i Remember. First of all, I dont like going by meta so take it like a grain of salt. He was mafia and he did admit to not being able to have time and didnt really do 100 effort on the game. This remind me of that gameplay as Geoni is busy of course. He really couldn't help it as his job demands it. But to summarize, Geoni wolf can be with less activity.
My thoughts so far and don't trust me on this because I am cop. I am only certain of one thing and that is Tessa:
Geoni, The thing that stood out to me and I agree with him is that he resolved that the yeet must be between him and Droqen. This shows that he is not afraid to be yeeted to solve the game. If Geoni is town and he thinks that Sheep could be mafia, then definitely he wants to solve droqen's slot and he is not afraid to be yeeted.
Droqen's argument about this further strengthens this fact and actually supports Geoni as town AND mafia as a possibility. If Geoni is mafia, why would he just not suggest a Geoni/sheep yeet (which will make it even more easier for Geoni to win if showdown is between Geoni, droqen and Tessa). The fact that he suggests it be him and droqen yet is hard road to F3....
but I could also see the argument in droqen that Geoni is mafia as well and calculating. First, He could not suggest a Geoni/sheep yeet now. It is too risky. Geoni knows he will be yeeted if it is between him and Sheep as a choice but with Geoni and droqen together, he will definitely be in in F3.
For me tbh, the yeet should be between droqen and Sheep because stupid naive me cannot even entertain the idea that Sheep will bus his teammate especially that Ghost is not even on anyone's radar to be yeeted until he voted. and mafia roleblocker is important role so why risk that ? If Sheep did bus Ghost, congratulations you are the evill genius this game. You had us fooled.
It has be Tessa, sheep and either Geoni/droqen. This way Tessa can decide for herself if bussing is even remotely a possibility in this game. Otherwise, it is easy decision for her. We just need to resolve either Geoni or droqen slot. It will be harder for Tessa if Geoni and droqen are in F3 with her because both are definitely sus.
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Sorry i made a typo I meant tbh I think the yeet should be between droqen and Geoni, not droqen and Sheep. Sheep
I think I mellowed out a lot when my Damniel paranoia turned out to be pure paranoia. I still haven't totally recovered from that. Was more eager last game to throw shade d1, this time I'm taking some notes but a bit afraid to really make any strong claims. I'll get over it as things progress -- as facts pile up, and as possibilities dwindle. @Miss Misty commented that "Betsy's moves seem less calculated than last time" and I can't help but see a similar sort of pattern. Both our second games without a lot of recovery time between. Seems likely that our play styles will change after having the experiences that we did.
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That said, I do WANT to be more d1 vicious, but damn, it hurts to have been on every winning town elim vote and to have been wrong EVERY SINGLE TIME
This was something I touched up on back when it happened as a possible look in to a w/w interaction- however now that Betsy has flipped town it does take a world of it's own as comparing yourself to a town person for justification.
the game is all about solving who is secretly mafia, so 'reading' people (i.e. Examining their posts and actions and then drawing conclusions about whether they are mafia) is probably the most important thing you can do if you are towny.
This micro read lives rent free in my head lol.
This is something I don't bank too much on but he really did just tell a wolf instructions and use the word towny instead of town. Don't place too much on this read, it's entirely a result of being hyperaware of the infamous The Town post.
Ghost08 - New player, confused. A lot of not engaging with direct confrontation, which reads as potentially sus to me - like, a new player not sure how to react, so just deflects. Towny new player would probably have an easier time answering. Don't want to vote him for now, to give him some time to get his bearings...
Miss Misty - Drawing theories ("world-building"), making connections to previous games. Good effort, which I appreciate, but not necessarily town. that pattern will continue throughout my reads; I don't think effort is either wolf or town to me, but... it makes for good play.
BetsySundrop - Throwing darts. as commented above, this is Betsy's second game and last game she won as mafia, so if she's mafia again that's probably weird/scary. if she's town again though... it's a whole new game. her play style changing dramatically make a lot of sense. Mild townread. Will @ sheep about this.
Geoni - Walls!!! Appreciate the thoughts on meta and IoA, a lot of stuff I haven't considered. Good/high effort.
Armadillo lover - Pretty inactive. My vote will hover on Armadillo, though tessa is also sus.
^ Hmm... should I back off of Armadillo? Is this what a panicking Armadillo looks like?
tessa. - Also pretty inactive. I'm torn between her and Armadillo for my vote.
Biancasbotique - Pretty chill d1 commentary, nice to see individual reads on a lot of players. No read at all yet.
Sheep Villager - Super interesting observations. Glad we're getting to play together this game! I don't have a read on you yet. Good/high effort.
summary
high effort: Geoni, Betsy, Sheep, Misty; within this category, I am least trusting of Misty. don't know why yet, and it's not a strong feeling. to be clear this category is not "TOWN". i have trust issues.
low activity: tessa., Armadillo lover; not sure if it's good strategy to vote out low-activity players, i don't think this is out of sus though... it just seems like a reasonable way to play. i'll be around near EoD, hopefully not change my vote too late though
confused: Ghost008, we'll see how he develops. right now i'm very on the fence.
yknow what, i'm switching my vote to @tessa.
I hope you can poke your head in during lunch!
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Okay i'm now actually leaning more towards @Armadillo lover damn... i hope we get some messages from the less-active players. Also I'm going to post a proper read list sometime later today, this effort-stratification is not really helping me at all. Scary tho.
Droqen states he's not sure about how good of an idea it is to vote out low-activity players while simultaneously sussing Ghost a bit. It weirds me out how much of a free pass Ghost gets in this post when he was more supposedly more suspicious to Droqen compared to the low-actives he wasn't sure about voting.
The only person you can trust in here is yourself!! IMO you can never be 100% on anyone else (unless you're the cop or mafia), so it's very important for you to come to your own conclusions.
(I had this written then I noticed you voted me! You should explain the reasoning behind your vote, so people can make reads based on your reads.)
If we read in to a Droqen/Ghost team with the idea that this was a distance vote it'd make sense to apply pressure to further the distance. I'm willing to note in this case that I feel this conversation could have taken place in Mafia chat and not the thread so it's a bit eh. A bit weird Ghost just slapped the vote on mid conversation with Droqen.
Right now all I've got in terms of major interactions:
The Misty X Tessa Interaction ("are you town?" "yes"), which Geoni, Bianca, Sheep, and Misty herself all analyzed. No conclusions to draw from that, really. Seems like pretty frivolous RQS activity.
I'm at the center of Betsy voting droqen, and the resulting discourse (with Misty and Sheep). I'm trying hard! I think Betsy X Misty had a nice interaction where they were trying to work things out between each other; Betsy X Sheep are going at it. The vote for droqen seemed like the spark the game needed to get started, but aside from that it seems like Betsy was not making a serious claim that I was wolf.
There is a lot of sussing on me, which ... actually, I'll take a look at. Who started it? Who jumped on the wagon, and how much of that was actually legitimate interest and how much could have been motivated by an easy wagon?
And then we have a few low-content players who I'm not sure what to think about. I like Armadillo's answer a bit; Ghost's confusion seems legitimate but is a bit frustrating to work with; and Tessa still isn't around. I think she sorta said she wouldn't be around, which is a good thing to let us know but... still...
By this point what happened to the sus on Ghost? Where did it go? It seems he started with one and then it just poofed. By this point Ghost hadn't addressed any of the deflecting behavior that caused his sus but Droqen just dropped it entirely. Additionally it's fascinating he gives a positive note about Armadillo here considering where his vote d1 lands.
Ohh my bad. Maybe I need to go back and re-read that.
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Hmm. I forgot I actually switched to Tessa in the voting thread. (You can see in my earlier posts that I said "I'm going to switch back to Armadillo lover from Tessa".) I'm still super on the fence. I agree with what @Sheep Villager is saying about Ghost - what about Tessa though?
He agree with me about Ghost here, then he suggest an alternative. Seriously, what is this hesitancy about Ghost that is going on this whole time? I feel this is even more weird given he voted for Armadillo in the end. The progress when it comes to Ghost was:
Ghost is kinda sus... but gets a free pass -> Suddenly interested in inactives over Ghost despite his stance on them being meh. -> No longer Suspicious about Ghost for no real reason -> Agree that Ghost vote could be good -> Vote Armadillo ??????????
Kinda with you here. It sucks but it is what it is. I'm more here than I am with Geoni:
If we're going to elim someone based on low activity I'd rather it be someone whose activity level I expect won't get better.
That said, I feel like Armadillo is similarly hard to see improving based on somewhat resigned posts about mafia being too hard? Not answering direct questions?
He agree with me on voting Ghost again, but then goes at Armadillo. Interestingly he brings up his original sus reason for Ghost here but not in relation to Ghost himself.
This post is getting long so part 2 incoming in a bit. If anyone wants to break the wall go for it. More cat pictures, maybe?
^ This is the point where Droqen decides to finalize the Armadillo vote, because Armadillo did not elaborate on the gut read. It was in response to Misty.
I'm not sure there was really that much suspicion cast on Armadillo regarding the 'no elim', either... I mean, not enough to really cause any kind of pressure. I voted Armadillo yesterday for being inactive and it didn't change their play style this extremely
Interesting. I thought the vote was because of the gut read thing? ... or how earlier he said Armadillo was deflecting? I've said it before btw, this is the guy who wasn't even sure about voting inactives anyway.
(btw: i do not know cop meta, or whether this is a mis-play, but i just want to explicitly state: i am not playing "cop not-so-subtly hinting armadillo has been confirmed mafia." i don't have any information about armadillo. i'm just extremely suspicious.)
What was the point of this post. I cannot begin to explain how anti-town and self protective this whole thing is. Why would a town ever, ever narrow the pool of potential cops for Mafia to snipe? This post tells me Droqen valued himself (a supposed vanilla townie) over the cop or that he was trying to garner a response from the cop to this. I feel the 'idk cop meta' bit does not hold up given how obvious it should be that the cop needs to have more people to hide in with.
I can fetch a quote pile, but Droqen has himself been extremely defensive this whole game too. I feel every time I brought up Droqen or someone elses did, he would end up responding to it in some capacity. It's a bit ironic given Armadillos defending was one of the things he brought up during the 'tunnel'.
I'll insert a few samples, but these defensive posts can be found across the entire thread and you should be able to find them pretty easily with an ISO, I will most likely not have all of them here because my quote queue was getting a bit too fat.
LOL good to know my severe indecisiveness is good for something
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This is not about Betsy but about strategy more generally... I often want to explain my actions (e.g. rxn) so that people can see what I see, but at the same time it seems to go against the idea of doing it because then the person I'm doing it to also knows why I'm doing it and can react appropriately...
How do you deal with the timing of this kind of thing, if you ever reveal your intentions at all (re: something like reaction testing)?
In this case just trying to give good general-purpose advice to a seemingly pretty confused player... Not thinking about my in-game flip, but going meta and taking role as impartial rules explainer
& @Sheep Villager My post was more about seeing a kinship w/ Betsy than meant to be jumping on a 'not w/w' wagon (was a Betsy/droqen w/w even in the cards at that point?)
it's actually weird to feel a kinship with betsy since she betrayed me!! lol. but you can see the main reason i joined this game (rather than sitting out to recover) was because she egged me on in the other thread for a 'rematch'.
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I will say that last game I enjoyed like a week straight of being read as perfect towny by everyone the entire time (except a few posts in the early game), so being sussed is sort of a weird experience. Easier to think about being a third analytical party than it is to think about defending myself... Anyway, I've talked enough about my mindset. I will get back to some analysis over the next hour or so.
I was not kidding when I said that Droqen has been pinging me non-stop this whole game and it's at this point likely I have missed some things because keeping up with it all has been rough.
I don't have a cat, but I can respond to the ghost thing It didn'toccur to me how bad it would look upon inspection, but I had a weird soft spot for ghost's extremely confusingly bad play, and considering what happened to blooming last game felt really bad about eliminating their brother who was specially invited to the game. When the news came out that ghost was mafia I still felt... bad, and still relieved I hadn't voted for him. "Mafia is hell," i think i said, just before voting closed.
also i feel like towny is just a more adjectivey version of town. does it imply like, town-ish? not-fully-town?
i don't know how people respond to oddly strong claims, and i did not want to drown out potential cop communication by being too passionate. i tried to word it in such a way that it implied that i could be cop anyway and just that this particular hunch was not based on a cop read
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@Sheep Villager about defensiveness: i'd always like to hear your responses to the things i've pointed out as sus in your behaviour- hearing your explanation is part of the process of trying to understand whether i'm wrong to call them out as mafia.
responding naturally regarding my mental/emotional/logical state (even if a bit broken now and then, evidently*) as i posted things in the past is something that's effortless for me to do as town, but much harder for mafia since they have something to hide.
* i have no excuse for my confusing stance on inactivity... it's just confused.
This shows that he is not afraid to be yeeted to solve the game. If Geoni is town and he thinks that Sheep could be mafia, then definitely he wants to solve droqen's slot and he is not afraid to be yeeted.
But how does Geo's self-sacrifice help? If he suspects me 100%, then he should just get me voted out. Why the dance around "well sure vote me (geoni) out first"?
If there was any reason i thought me getting voted out would be good for town i'd be all for it but the obvious path to victory is to vote out the two people who might be mafia from my perspective. wasting our vote on me is exactly the same as wasting our vote on either you or tessa.
Made my read a lot faster. Condolences to mafia for probably having some of their plans ruined. Not sure I'd have wanted Armadillo to get voted out, since she was a very ambiguous sort that would have helped confuse votes to F3...
