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I kinda feel like Sheep will behead me for continued defensiveness, but I am just an overexplainer as well as an overthinker ;D
I am always like this (when I have the energy to be). It is my default state.
I think I am more frustrated by the 'shouldnt be alive' because I absolutely can't defend against something like that and seeing it brought as a point against me right now is beyond annoying. I guess one more game of me making it to day 3 as town is needed for my meta though so whatever. Just wanted to pause and say that as a player.
UGH I hate when both of the unclears have plenty of redeeming moments and droqen I can especially understand the frustration from your PoV that Sheep's redeeming moment (Ghost yeet) carries so much more weight but unfortunately for me it just... does. Idk
Oh heck no, it carries a lot of weight. No IDK about it. But the longer I stare at it the more that's a problem. It would be a crazy bold move to pull off, but the payoff is huge. And having seen Ghost at play, hell, I can imagine being worried Ghost is going to slip up d2 -- why not nab a get-out-of-jail-free card AND tie up a loose end in one quick move?
Losing the roleblocker is a huge gamble tho, that is very worth noting.
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^ This is the kind of thinking that got me in trouble with Damniel though. How do you AI a single swift bold move that would hurt mafia a lot but simultaneously is almost guaranteed to prove to everyone that they're almost definitely town for the entire rest of the game? I still don't know.
I think I am more frustrated by the 'shouldnt be alive' because I absolutely can't defend against something like that and seeing it brought as a point against me right now is beyond annoying. I guess one more game of me making it to day 3 as town is needed for my meta though so whatever. Just wanted to pause and say that as a player.
Oh, weird/interesting. Right, I saw you mentioned that earlier.
I'm still wondering why Sheep is still alive out of the three proven-innocent Ghost voters. I'd have much more reasonable doubts about Betsy just jumping on the easy Ghost-bus-wagon. I suppose mafia could have been guessing them as cop over Sheep due to Sheep's high visibility? Still don't know cop meta.
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.. If it's any comfort at all this will hopefully self-balance over time, Geoni? Eventually mafia will catch on that it's meta to keep you alive because then people suspect you endgame, and if they do that enough the meta will go away... I can only imagine the frustration, though.
when I recall rolling my eyes at Bianca saying something like 'Geo still alive huh' day two (I'll have to double check) and that's just...so tired already and you are inflaming the sentiment
I remember that you said something about being nightkilled a lot. That's how I got the idea so it came from you really...Sorry if I offended. I wouldnt have made that joke if you weren't in on it. it supposed to be a tongue in cheek statement...btw what is the Godfather theory
I'm up to page 9. Figured i should share what I have so far, this is taking much longer than expected and we do have limited time.
1. (#35) Geoni thinks 'Ghost' refers to 'GhostKid'. This is after the game starts so I assume he would know the name of his partner? +1 Town for Geoni
2. Sheep Villager planting many seeds of doubt? Lots that are hard to defend and/or go unresolved.
(#45) "Could be theatre" regarding Tessa/Misty, then adds no real content
(page 3 and on) Tunnelling on me for my no-elim question a bit, as well as for being idle, as well as saying "#64 feels a bit panicked". No quote there, not much backing it up, so all someone really gets at a glance is 'hmm droqen is acting panicked, that's suspicious..'
(page 6 and on) Tunnelling on Betsy's RV quite a bit! They acknowledge that it's tunnelling but that doesn't make it less doubt-seed-y imo
(#107) 'Funny old hot takes' spoiler on Misty, read this one yourself. Not a big seed but follows the pattern of "mild seed of doubt based on not much and then quickly dismissed"
(#114) Microread on me talking to Ghost and saying "if towny". Not big or content-ful enough to be defended against.
3. IMO Geoni and Sheep Villager have roughly the same level of interaction with Ghost. Geoni a little more, maybe. I get no reads from this.
4. Sheep mentions this above (#325) already but I want to say I agree with the first part... Geoni's "OMGUSing" post reads very town to me; why would a wolf try to break up a deathtunnel?
5. My pet Sheep theory right now: Betsy died N1 after Sheep tunnelled on her pretty hard. Could this be a response to Sheep trying to get people onboard the tunnel and failing? The last thing Sheep says about the Betsy tunnel is "I see no reason to engage the Betsy tunnel further at this point of EOD." At this point nobody had bitten. Why would Geoni (or I) be motivated to eliminate a towny in the sights of Sheep's lingering deathtunnel? From our perspective it is legitimate and still potentially alive.
I haven't found really anything to make me suspect Geoni, tbh. I can't say whether my reading here is too focused on Sheep because they're just more talkative and aggressive, but as of page 11 (I skimmed a bit to get to EoD) I am definitely more sus of Sheep than Geoni. I haven't even thought about the Ghost thing, but wanted to post my half-analysis for y'all to check out rather than take another hour or two before saying anything...
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To keep myself from tunnelling extremely hard on Sheep, here's the worst stuff I found on Geoni:
Ghost posts "hello peoples what happening?"
Geoni responds to say "I'm panicking because I'm finding too many redeeming qualities in everyone and struggling to find a wolf [..] Maybe it's you!"
This could be distancing, could be a sloppy attempt to kickstart some conversation (i.e. in mafiachat "hey Ghost post so i can respond". Maybe they're trying to form plans and the sloppiness is because it's a plan by Ghost that Geoni went along with?
Ghost and Geoni talk quite a bit, in particular there is one exchange where Geoni invites Ghost to "spend the time you got reading" and Ghost replies with "Wdym read me??" which at a glance I thought was very weird. Why word the response in that way, maybe it was like something they said in mafia chat? reading / read me are opposites. I think Ghost generally just has a very loose way of speaking though based on what I've seen so I could see that, uh, just being a Ghost thing.
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Examining this btw.
Sheep is saying that Geoni talked down Sheep's deathtunnel on Betsy, but that that might be sus because Geoni is pushing Betsy to vote for Sheep. Why would he eliminate Betsy N1 after playing that game?
I suppose in my own defense, the situation is that though Betsy was the one who started the vote-wagon on me (pointing out my idleness), she had pretty much backed off completely. Her opinion of me was steadily turning town, while Sheep was trying to keep the animosity going.
(Note these quotes are not in order.)
It makes a lot of sense for Sheep to night elim Betsy...
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^ ignore (Note these quotes are not in order.) I put them in order right afterwards but forgot to delete my note. They are , infact, in order.
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^ regarding Why would he eliminate Betsy N1 after playing that game? I mean Why would Geoni eliminate Betsy N1 after stopping a town on town deathtunnel.
Using a spoiler because this quote is long and my response will be too.
1) Lol I forgot that moment happened but yes, I didn't know who was in the 9th player game at that moment and had completely forgotten that whole 'dont skew things in favor of someone you know conversation in another thread' I had the day before and someone mentioned the name Ghost and my mind immediately went to GhostKid because he was a staple player in the community before it died out for a bit and brought a lot of fun and levity to the atmosphere so I was excited and forgot what I even responded to the day before when I was informed b100s bro my mind forgets the dumbest things but yeah this is something I considered part of that NAI early day 1 conversation part of the phase and forgot happened. But no don't give me this towncred I'm an evil spooky master manipulator!!!
2) I think I spoke about the term seeds of doubt being a mafia tell so it's curious you picked up on the lingo to throw it Sheep's way but you have your own perspective and I guess I gotta follow this line of thought and see how Sheep reacts to it. I think for me when I use the term seeds of doubt I mean VERY subtle moments where wolves are saying things to townie's that make them question their reads or reasons they have for a townlean not as much 'this person has been attacking me outright for as long as you are saying sheep did. What has me conflicted here is that I could see Sheep's points there and feel like I can acknowledge Sheep's concern about you through them. I've very recently felt some of that directed towards myself.
3) You say you get no reads from both of us having the same amount of interaction with Ghost roughly but you raised some concerns about what I said to Ghost at some point not long ago while also acknowledging that name silliness moment from me? I feel like you do? That you feel my interactions are worse but aren't saying it RN?
4) I know I should just take the townread when it's given to me but I don't think it's really applicable to me, I wouldn't fearkill or frame kill on night 1 as a wolf after losing a roleblocker that I kindasorta pleaded for b100 to include in the game so I think it's a ??? thing to give me a townread for...and on that topic
5) I would have killed Misty night 1 because even in day 1 I had a cop read on Misty and if I were wolfing I would have gone for her and tried someone else next, I had a 'this person is either PR or wolf' type of read on Misty on day 1 which is why I said she felt questionably leadery but didn't want to express what I actually was thinking.
6) My 'Maybe it's you!' post towards Ghost you find funky...I didn't even think Ghost was a wolf and was just saying that playfully but not playfully enough to make him think I couldn't have been joking as I mild pressure for him to get caught up.
This took way too long to respond to. I admire this level of effort. I do think when I asked you to make a case for Sheep to do it in a way that felt carried an authentic towny mindset and I'm torn. It does feel like you come around on finding easy reasons to townread me? They're correct reasons but lack paranoia about me just a little. I do see just...so much work from you here that I like. But also I dislike it cause it's a lot to respond to and I still got a lot else to respond to!
This point is moot imo. Ghost did not even have an account until the second half of d1, this is confirmed by the host. (Yeah.. host based information is not fun from a game point of view but it's out there) Geoni wouldn't have known his full name.
How did you you know his name was Ghost in the first place btw? I think Bianca did too? This isn't a question I thought I'd need to ask but apparently I do since it's just been used to townread me but also it does clear me though that's me and my own perspective talking I know people think it could be me being super elaborately manipulative or something but lol if I got that elaborate I wouldn't be so sloppy to forget the nepotism conversation I was in myself but forgot.
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Btw don't take that as a 'you failed to meet my criteria' type of response I feel like I can be swayed not to keep it simple and that the Ghost "bus" should not hold so much weight for Sheep being town because the reality here is that it shouldn't though we have a lot surrounding that I feel willing to compromise.
That little (big...I shouldn't lie) part of me wants to be much less self sacrificial in my stance and win at day 5 rather than die here and watch Tessa just not re-evaluate Sheep at all F3. .0001% chance was an exaggeration tbh. And yet Tessa I can't tell you if you should or shouldn't re-eval because lol overthinkinlosesgames.
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Win at final 5*
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Technically I would win at day 5 if I was a wolf since equaling town is the win condition and in theory it's cause that last town dies the night after endgame. Wolfslip? Awoooooo!
I remember that you said something about being nightkilled a lot. That's how I got the idea so it came from you really...Sorry if I offended. I wouldnt have made that joke if you weren't in on it. it supposed to be a tongue in cheek statement...btw what is the Godfather theory
Hmm. You're right. I wonder how b100ming handled that in the backend.
It's not a major turning point anyway, it's more of a small square in a quilt of innocence and/or guilt. At the time of writing that down I was expecting to find more little pieces, but this was really the only thing that gave me a funny 'ping!' feeling. I could've left it out.
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(In particular, this being really meta/host-based, I feel kinda bad for bringing it up and will try not to give it any consideration.)
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(Also, the Geoni/GhostKid thing could 100% be theatre. I need a better word for noting down these moments -- things that hint at innocence, but which could be theatre depending on the meta of the person playing. How many weird little innocent coincidences can someone come up with? How many do they dare to?)
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@Sheep Villager regarding #267 why does it matter who Ghost TR'd? because it makes them more suspicious? or less?
(others... is this IoA?)
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(for posterity: sheep gave the 'like' to my first two merged posts, not the rest)
Okay in regards to the name thing: fair let's drop that point. It's silly as it is and I don't think I need to use it as a defense in actuality, such a FMPOV thing anyways.
Did Ghost even townread anyone? Only content I remember at all is a sus on you droqen did I glance ok very something in the fifty times I've looked at this dude's ISO?
Expect a heavier reads post from me later today. I have some IRL obligations coming up soon, but I figured I'd pop in with some thoughts at least. Ghost had such a thin presence in the thread I pretty much did a mental ISO when brushing my teeth. I'm not sure how much can be gained from his actions, but it never hurts to look even in the case of a new player with a low post amount.
Most of the posts are just greetings and general bumbling around so I won't quote those.
This is the first post that pings me slightly. What incentive would Ghost have to step in to interfere with the Armadillo vote Droqen placed? I'm aware Ghost and Armadillo know each other IRL which does complicate things, but this is still one of the few instances where Ghost reacted even remotely strongly to anything. He was fine with ignoring direct questions about himself, but not fine with an Armadillo push.
Ghost TR's Betsy here and places a vote on Droqen. We know Betsy/Ghost cannot be teamed.
It's also painfully clear Ghost wasn't actually reading the thread given the Droqen vote was a RV that wasn't even on the board any more when he placed his vote. The same lack of reading will come up later with Misty.
I'm personally not quite willing to TR Droqen just for the vote by Ghost. A new player like that wouldn't bus on his own, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was also told to bus to form distance due to his growing LHF status. Side thought here: If he had an experienced player coaching then I cannot tell from the way he acted. You'd think an experienced coach wouldn't let the roleblocker prance around so carelessly while being extremely LHF. Of course if Ghost just... didn't care about the game that wouldn't matter. I hate trying to read new players so much man.
Ghost TR's Misty 100% here, way more than he did with Betsy imo.
Worth noting in the same post Misty questioned him directly, but he never responded at all.
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That's all I have time for at the moment. Will be back later.
In which Sheep and others felt it wolfspewed Armadillo. Not harshly blaming them for it but here's a question on frame of mind for you @Sheep Villager if you thought Armadillo looked bad for the defense from Ghost and think the droqen vote was distancing, wouldn't you also ask yourself why Ghost would defend the person his potential partner in droqen was pushing for elimination or do you really think that's just further distancing? Feels wildly uncoordinated if so.
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Frame-of-minded/perspectived vs Doubt Seedy
You'd be have to be arguing the latter droqen, yeah?
Unless I dunno what you are saying about Sheep being a doubt farmer.
Given this was a new player the possibility of him TR'ing a team mate for no real reason wasn't something I was totally willing to dismiss, especially since it was clear he never even read the posts he was TR'ing.
Dang, reading through, the early N2 was more shocking than I remembered! Made my read a lot faster. Condolences to mafia for probably having some of their plans ruined. Not sure I'd have wanted Armadillo to get voted out, since she was a very ambiguous sort that would have helped confuse votes to F3...
Out of the last pool of players, Sheep Villager, Geoni, droqen, Biancasbotique, tessa., and Miss Misty, mafia chose to eliminate Miss Misty -- keeping in mind this was before they knew Bianca was going to spill the beans and reveal both her and tessa as town. (tyvm @Biancasbotique)
It makes sense that the night elim pool would be Miss Misty and Sheep Villager, since they are the most 'proven towny'. I don't think there's anything to read into the order there though (i.e. that Misty was eliminated over Sheep). D2, I think they both had sparkling reputations. Either would be a good pick.
I think I'm pretty much done analyzing reads and blame-casting. Now we're in the endgame and I'm going to go through everyone's theories and see what I've missed.
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Kinda makes sense, but then if theory here that he could have been TR'ing a bunch of random people including his mafia friend as a premeditated smokescreen , I don't think we really have much to go on. It's just some random noise that could indicate something or anything or nothing at all.
Meh I can appreciate some of your tone in that your thoughts feel like they are really meandering here but I don't have much to say on it myself, given my thoughts on kills.
Clarifying on this a bit; Geoni stopping the tunnel is not sus and is separate from my sussing.
What is sus is him saying in the tunnel stopping post that Betsys potential vote on me was omgus but then soft pushing in the next post despite that stance. Why humour an omgus vote at all.
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As a note to anyone wondering btw; The big fat droqen post hasn't been forgotten about. Unfortunately having a bad health day today and I'm trying to rest a smidge before I go at it since it's going to be a lot of writing.
Right, bad wording on my part, I didn't mean to imply that stopping the tunnel is related to your sussing - imo we're on the same page regarding his "talking down deathtunnel == very towny". I can see what you're saying here a little more clearly. But it seems more like "checking for clarification on Betsy's stance" than an attempt to rekindle her vote on you (Sheep).
p.s. while in the archives I noticed Betsy was still a bit dubious of me
So mayyybe my theory of 'Sheep night-eliminated Betsy because Betsy was too suspicious of Sheep and no longer suspicious enough of droqen' has a little leak in it. I'm going to hold onto it, anyone who checks it out please let me know if you find any other holes.
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(it was in very small casual text and i missed it completely across two or three reads over this game, so i think it could have easily passed under the radar/been ignored/dismissed/etc)
Bit the nail on the head, that was my motive in bringing up OMGUS.
Why does your exclusion of the pr-sniping possibility feel like it just continues for the sake of circling around to it implicating Sheep somehow in your theory making? I mean honestly it kinda has to considering framing or clearkilling is not what I would do at all if I were a wolf with a big reputation and no framer left and you currently seem to stick to the Geo is townier than Sheep stance here. That's just from my perspective. What either of you two would kill like in the game isn't something I feel either way about. But I'm getting a built up impression here?
@Sheep Villager to be honest, Geoni is always killed night that I really don't see him endgame. He did win a game as mafia that stood out to me or i Remember. First of all, I dont like going by meta so take it like a grain of salt. He was mafia and he did admit to not being able to have time and didnt really do 100 effort on the game. This remind me of that gameplay as Geoni is busy of course. He really couldn't help it as his job demands it. But to summarize, Geoni wolf can be with less activity.
My thoughts so far and don't trust me on this because I am cop. I am only certain of one thing and that is Tessa:
Geoni, The thing that stood out to me and I agree with him is that he resolved that the yeet must be between him and Droqen. This shows that he is not afraid to be yeeted to solve the game. If Geoni is town and he thinks that Sheep could be mafia, then definitely he wants to solve droqen's slot and he is not afraid to be yeeted.
Droqen's argument about this further strengthens this fact and actually supports Geoni as town AND mafia as a possibility. If Geoni is mafia, why would he just not suggest a Geoni/sheep yeet (which will make it even more easier for Geoni to win if showdown is between Geoni, droqen and Tessa). The fact that he suggests it be him and droqen yet is hard road to F3....
but I could also see the argument in droqen that Geoni is mafia as well and calculating. First, He could not suggest a Geoni/sheep yeet now. It is too risky. Geoni knows he will be yeeted if it is between him and Sheep as a choice but with Geoni and droqen together, he will definitely be in in F3.
For me tbh, the yeet should be between droqen and Sheep because stupid naive me cannot even entertain the idea that Sheep will bus his teammate especially that Ghost is not even on anyone's radar to be yeeted until he voted. and mafia roleblocker is important role so why risk that ? If Sheep did bus Ghost, congratulations you are the evill genius this game. You had us fooled.
It has be Tessa, sheep and either Geoni/droqen. This way Tessa can decide for herself if bussing is even remotely a possibility in this game. Otherwise, it is easy decision for her. We just need to resolve either Geoni or droqen slot. It will be harder for Tessa if Geoni and droqen are in F3 with her because both are definitely sus.
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Sorry i made a typo I meant tbh I think the yeet should be between droqen and Geoni, not droqen and Sheep. Sheep
Busy for me is NAI at this point in my life I know my day 2 doesn't help but I can't help that either given I would have been around Sunday night for sure. Like I said before playing mafia is largely a distraction for the boring hours of work and people got up in arms over me being lackluster during the weekend last go around too. If you wanna yeet me for this reason understand, paranoia is a witch, just feels really blah for me to go for that reason and not what's on the table.
I mean I think the rest of this just reiterates that you're in the same place you were a while ago and Tessa is very clear she doesn't want to yeet Sheep either. Personally I know that the best thing I can do is unearth and question the behaviors of both droqen and sheep here and if I need to die to make f3 feel less paranoid then I hope Tessa will consider what I have said today about both rather than just not overthink it but at the same time still take one last reaffirming look at Sheep and not just droqen. I think the best advice I can give @tessa. if she wants to eliminate me today is that she would operate best as hammer by ignoring day 4 discussion and just ISOing and deciding. Emotional appeals at F3 really get people tripped up.
What gets me is that so far I am still leaning towards droqen being last wolf but it feels like maybe 70% confidence and what makes Sheep feel like 30% chance and not .0001% chance is maybe a little bit of some stuff today pinging me and putting me off but largely droqen really does feel so earnest on a tonal level and just the drive he has to convince others it's Sheep and not me and that feels so driven.
I'll post my updated percentage confidence nearing EoD or endgame, whichever scenario I wake up to in the voting thread lol.
Honestly I think my vote stays at droqen. I don't want Geoni/Droqen in F3 because that would be difficult for me (im easy to manipulate ) Also, out of the 3, Droqen seems the most suspicious, with Geoni and Sheep probably being tied in my book (i really can't see sheep getting rid of a rb so fast- but geoni is also very much town)
Alright going to be going over Droqens posts and the spots where I was pinged by anything he did.
This was something I touched up on back when it happened as a possible look in to a w/w interaction- however now that Betsy has flipped town it does take a world of it's own as comparing yourself to a town person for justification.
This micro read lives rent free in my head lol.
This is something I don't bank too much on but he really did just tell a wolf instructions and use the word towny instead of town. Don't place too much on this read, it's entirely a result of being hyperaware of the infamous The Town post.
Droqen states he's not sure about how good of an idea it is to vote out low-activity players while simultaneously sussing Ghost a bit. It weirds me out how much of a free pass Ghost gets in this post when he was more supposedly more suspicious to Droqen compared to the low-actives he wasn't sure about voting.
If we read in to a Droqen/Ghost team with the idea that this was a distance vote it'd make sense to apply pressure to further the distance. I'm willing to note in this case that I feel this conversation could have taken place in Mafia chat and not the thread so it's a bit eh. A bit weird Ghost just slapped the vote on mid conversation with Droqen.
By this point what happened to the sus on Ghost? Where did it go? It seems he started with one and then it just poofed. By this point Ghost hadn't addressed any of the deflecting behavior that caused his sus but Droqen just dropped it entirely. Additionally it's fascinating he gives a positive note about Armadillo here considering where his vote d1 lands.
He agree with me about Ghost here, then he suggest an alternative. Seriously, what is this hesitancy about Ghost that is going on this whole time? I feel this is even more weird given he voted for Armadillo in the end. The progress when it comes to Ghost was:
Ghost is kinda sus... but gets a free pass -> Suddenly interested in inactives over Ghost despite his stance on them being meh. -> No longer Suspicious about Ghost for no real reason -> Agree that Ghost vote could be good -> Vote Armadillo ??????????
He agree with me on voting Ghost again, but then goes at Armadillo. Interestingly he brings up his original sus reason for Ghost here but not in relation to Ghost himself.
This post is getting long so part 2 incoming in a bit. If anyone wants to break the wall go for it. More cat pictures, maybe?
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^ Misty Talking about Armadillo having a sus on Droqen and not elaborating on it.
^ This is the point where Droqen decides to finalize the Armadillo vote, because Armadillo did not elaborate on the gut read. It was in response to Misty.
Interesting. I thought the vote was because of the gut read thing? ... or how earlier he said Armadillo was deflecting? I've said it before btw, this is the guy who wasn't even sure about voting inactives anyway.
What was the point of this post. I cannot begin to explain how anti-town and self protective this whole thing is. Why would a town ever, ever narrow the pool of potential cops for Mafia to snipe? This post tells me Droqen valued himself (a supposed vanilla townie) over the cop or that he was trying to garner a response from the cop to this. I feel the 'idk cop meta' bit does not hold up given how obvious it should be that the cop needs to have more people to hide in with.
I can fetch a quote pile, but Droqen has himself been extremely defensive this whole game too. I feel every time I brought up Droqen or someone elses did, he would end up responding to it in some capacity. It's a bit ironic given Armadillos defending was one of the things he brought up during the 'tunnel'.
I'll insert a few samples, but these defensive posts can be found across the entire thread and you should be able to find them pretty easily with an ISO, I will most likely not have all of them here because my quote queue was getting a bit too fat.
I was not kidding when I said that Droqen has been pinging me non-stop this whole game and it's at this point likely I have missed some things because keeping up with it all has been rough.
You're really finding any little thing he did or said as wolfy as possible or maybe that's my instinctual reaction to people criticizing anyone anytime they refer to town in some unusual way I feel like I have said the town, towny, a townie, with town probably five times each this game idk and I am not counting. Anyways I feel like I am using this point to springboard off because it's similar to a lot of what's in this wall, moments that don't look great from droqen stretched to their absolute thinnest like I guess it's forgivable in a sense but I also have a different viewpoint on droqen's handling of Armadillo and an overall wolf agenda in my own analysis buuuut tbh I feel like due to a lack of interactions to analyze I just don't know what really happened between those two on a more coordinated level. Interactions that hint on how they are navigating their own agenda in other words. Same with you to an extent.
He agree with me on voting Ghost again, but then goes at Armadillo. Interestingly he brings up his original sus reason for Ghost here but not in relation to Ghost himself.
This point I share with you however I think that gets at my original intensity/take earlier in the day that they were just strongly distancing but my hangup is that question I asked you earlier when going over one of droqen's posts.
What was the point of this post. I cannot begin to explain how anti-town and self protective this whole thing is. Why would a town ever, ever narrow the pool of potential cops for Mafia to snipe? This post tells me Droqen valued himself (a supposed vanilla townie) over the cop or that he was trying to garner a response from the cop to this. I feel the 'idk cop meta' bit does not hold up given how obvious it should be that the cop needs to have more people to hide in with.
I forgot entirely to consider that a wolf typically has to say -something- to garner discussion about the cop without being too obvious about it in order to snipe out the cop IF they are even killing that way (which a wolf should be doing but that really feels under considered by everyone) not to mention the narrowing on it's own is anti-town but you have to consider that cop succeeded in making it all the way to day 3 and could be useful because everyone kept quiet about it for the most part and it's probably been strugglebus for the wolf so yeah I feel like this is a valid concern to bring up that I share.
I'd give you a belated cat pic anyways btw but I am getting exhausted. Also later on I will present the pros and cons for both of y'all and leave it at that. Demonstrate whether I think the scale I brought up earlier has changed any. I feel like I am typing gobbledygook at this point.
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I'll go to my Tumblr and see what the latest cat pic is and post it here how's about that?
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It was this. Quite fitting.
Time to catch up at work y'all are all sleeping anyways.
Awake again; still feel pretty horrific but I'm not going to rep out this late in to the game.
Going to be looking at what went on while I slept and responding to things.
@Sheep Villager since this is a response to me quoting your way too forgiving read on me day 2 is it not just...all that stuff I just quoted you saying? Now you're saying it's just one moment that actually made you lenient, does that other stuff you used to continue lightly townleaning me in that post not apply for you anymore in a re-eval after I got concerned about it?
I also think you are wrongly applying what I said to Betty as meaning I was softly pushing you. When I asked Betty if she was still looking at voting you I was simply asking about where her headspace was at after I made that 'stop fighting you two' post you just referenced. Unless I am misreading that you're misreading or something.
I'm wildly irked by you specifically appealing to Bianca and her past games with me when I recall rolling my eyes at Bianca saying something like 'Geo still alive huh' day two (I'll have to double check) and that's just...so tired already and you are inflaming the sentiment when you were straight up in a game with Ace just TWO GAMES AGO where had Ace not forfeited you know he would have had to pull me into F3.
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Yeeep she certainly did
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What was your intention pinging Bianca the way you just did when she already clarified she gets paranoid when I am not offed night 1?
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@Biancasbotique that Bert deathstare is for you too. What's next, the revival of Godfather theory?
Consider me asking Bianca for input as a means to attempt to quell my light concerns on you, because reading you is a struggle and a half for me in general. All I can really do is look at your post history and go 'yeah that's Geoni' and I feel not making an effort to question any slight oddities at all is not a good idea. I'd also rather have someone who is hard confirmed town atm step in and tell me if I'm being stupid than soak in my own bad reads for too long. I'm not sure how much of it shows but my play style generally goes pretty heavy on expressing something that concerns me and then seeing what comes of it, if people agree or not and who agrees and who doesn't.
For the record you being alive this late isn't a point of interest for me and I'm sorry if you felt that I was getting at that since I'm aware you hate that. I was actually not aware of Bianca even having a paranoid streak in regards to you, but all that falls under the umbrella of things I can't exactly prove so it's a bit eh to even bring up. Could I have asked Tessa for thoughts on you instead of a meta analysis from Bianca? Yes, but out of the two Bianca has more experience with you.
In regards to the Betsy OMGUS situation the point was weak yes because it was always going to be either you trying to figure out what's going on in her head or soft pushing. I straight up do not know if you would do subtle manipulation like that or not and as it is the thing that called in to question one of my most TR moments about you, I felt like examining it. My other TRs about you mainly hinge on my ability to distinguish your behaviour as town.
Your ISO d1-2 mostly comes up as squeak clean besides your slight oddities when it comes to behaviour around Ghost. Not voting him, thinking no defence/inactivity = townlean.
All that said I'm done looking at d1-2 as I said last night and I feel I need to manage my time better and look at d3.
In which Sheep and others felt it wolfspewed Armadillo. Not harshly blaming them for it but here's a question on frame of mind for you @Sheep Villager if you thought Armadillo looked bad for the defense from Ghost and think the droqen vote was distancing, wouldn't you also ask yourself why Ghost would defend the person his potential partner in droqen was pushing for elimination or do you really think that's just further distancing? Feels wildly uncoordinated if so.
You do have a good point here and my initial thoughts are that instead of uncoordinated distancing it may have been tied to Armadillo/Ghost knowing each other IRL. Maybe feeling bad about Armadillo being pushed and not wanting to agree to your internet stranger partner on pushing an IRL friend. This is all way suboptimal from a game point of view but it's not like IRL stuff hasn't been happening already with the Ghost hesitancy d1. I don't like having to factor in IRL based interactions like this tbh and the Armadillo defending to begin with was already blurry due to that.
Awake. Sheep and I were really at each other's throats yesterday eh
@Geoni in case you missed this, you were asking a few times "Why am I going so hard on Sheep?" I answered it here (might have got lost in the page break automerge shuffle?)
There's some deep short-circuity-regret mixed in there that there's no way to engineer a situation where I win, because I have all the knowledge now! This never happened last game! From last game, coming into this one, I thought if I discovered The Solution we'd be able to win. So it's just been two pages of me coming to terms with the fact that no, that's not how this game works. (Or, well, not always how this game works.)
A lot of my misgivings on Sheep came from tunnelling as a result of those emotions -- "The Solution is in our grasp!" I thought, except you seemed to want to eliminate us both, which was not The Solution, it was a maybe-loss.
Sure, I want to express all my misgivings on Sheep and I think everyone should gather all evidence available, but I think I'd like to say to everyone who reads it that I came at my analysis from a highly tunnel-skewed perspective.
But there's also picking up on Sheep's intensity towards me and perhaps mirroring it a little in, like, emotional defense. Not suspecting Sheep because of it but certainly being less forgiving of Sheep because of it. I'll be shedding that lens today.
2) I think I spoke about the term seeds of doubt being a mafia tell so it's curious you picked up on the lingo to throw it Sheep's way but you have your own perspective and I guess I gotta follow this line of thought and see how Sheep reacts to it. I think for me when I use the term seeds of doubt I mean VERY subtle moments where wolves are saying things to townie's that make them question their reads or reasons they have for a townlean not as much 'this person has been attacking me outright for as long as you are saying sheep did. What has me conflicted here is that I could see Sheep's points there and feel like I can acknowledge Sheep's concern about you through them. I've very recently felt some of that directed towards myself.
Oh I understand! The seeds of doubt you look for are not so much undirected "flinging seeds everywhere," more like a repeated dismantling of, specifically, other people's townreads?
I like the term because I have some unresolved paranoid tendencies that I've been trying to get a handle on since mid-last-game - I think it's how the topic came up in the first place. It's just nice to have names for these things, and once I learn something I get mildly obsessed with it for a short time before it recedes into the background of my mind. Why learn something if you're not gonna put it into use immediately?! >
3) You say you get no reads from both of us having the same amount of interaction with Ghost roughly but you raised some concerns about what I said to Ghost at some point not long ago while also acknowledging that name silliness moment from me? I feel like you do? That you feel my interactions are worse but aren't saying it RN?
The point you're responding to was more about the quantity of interactions than the interactions themselves. Sometimes there's a total void vs lots of chatter and the difference can be interesting. Instead, you were both pretty actively engaging with Ghost. I was thinking: the difference in your individual levels of interaction was not significant enough to be readable, even though it was not exactly the same.
Maybe I do feel your interactions are worse? I'll give it some thought today.
Geoni's Thunderdome thing. I think I misread what he was proposing and just never let go of my misunderstanding. In retrospect it seems kinda reasonable. More like a gentleman's agreement "Let's get this fight over with now with mutual respect, since Sheep seems more towny to us both and everyone else," than the "There's no way we're unseating Sheep so let's just both die" that I was reading it as.
I think a lot of people suspect me for certain actions I've taken this game (being idle, also sussing Armadillo lover over Ghost for similar reasons, also overexplaining my actions).
Sheep Villager thinks I'm very suspicious and has been on it for almost the entire game. Their arguments and observations are pretty reasonable, and I don't have much in the way of a defense.
I (and my ego) want to see this as mafia painting my actions as extremely mafia-readable and bad towny. But... I think my actions this game just were pretty flawed and extremely mafia-readable and bad towny and I just have to accept that. Even if Sheep is mafia, it would be impossible to manufacture this much suspicion against me... at best, all wolf!Sheep would be doing is fanning the flames. Still, it would feel good to be exonerated even a little bit. Anyway, I haven't been impartial about Sheep.
I really haven't spotted anything wolfy in Geoni's actions.
I have spotted some things that I thought of as wolfy in Sheep's actions (in my big post), but maybe it's the impartialness speaking.
Regarding Sheep's Ghost vote. The bus feels too perfect, and too mechanically straightforward to execute, for me to discount the possibility of this being a clever wolf play. Sheep posted many times expressing suspicion of Ghost, then initiates the vote on Ghost, and then Ghost is gone. As mafia, I could see this being a very clean bus operation with a huge and really predictable payout. There's basically no risk of anything going wrong for the rest of the game... except getting pinged by the cop. But looking as innocent as Sheep does after that is pretty good anti-cop armour, too.
I think at worst though this is a NAI factor. The possibility isn't likely enough to be suspicious, it's just worth 0 towny points for me since I can see it going either way quite easily.
MY READS:
Geoni: neutral-town by virtue of having done nothing wolfy Sheep: very very slightly wolfy (but I am biased in a way that I might not be able to see past, as described in the spoiler)
+ everyone else thinks Sheep is very town because of something that I read as NAI.
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p.s. I didn't mention these things but I do read both Geoni and Sheep as like, great, high-effort posters who are both interested in solving the mafia puzzle. Honestly the read is very skewed. If I could, I'd be reading them both as town (with Sheep slightly below Geoni), but my read is based on the fact that I know one of them has to be maf.
Regarding Sheep's Ghost vote. The bus feels too perfect, and too mechanically straightforward to execute, for me to discount the possibility of this being a clever wolf play. Sheep posted many times expressing suspicion of Ghost, then initiates the vote on Ghost, and then Ghost is gone. As mafia, I could see this being a very clean bus operation with a huge and really predictable payout. There's basically no risk of anything going wrong for the rest of the game... except getting pinged by the cop. But looking as innocent as Sheep does after that is pretty good anti-cop armour, too.
Made my read a lot faster. Condolences to mafia for probably having some of their plans ruined. Not sure I'd have wanted Armadillo to get voted out, since she was a very ambiguous sort that would have helped confuse votes to F3...
) Also, out of the 3, Droqen seems the most suspicious, with Geoni and Sheep probably being tied in my book (i really can't see sheep getting rid of a rb so fast- but geoni is also very much town)
