Mafia Monster Mash Mafia Game Thread (Town Win!)

Rereading and laying everything out for myself has not made anything clearer

I'm gonna sleep on it and hope some wisdom comes to me in a dream or smthn

I do want to try to post before the 24 hour mark so we have plenty of time to debate
 
like, tessa was on my side with the maf!sidney d3 case. like it would be so much easier to keep tessa alive to push with me than it would be to convince you of all people to sheep with me. no offense, betsy you're spicy and that would be a stupid move on my part if i actually was mafia. plus you even said at the end of d3 you'd have to reevaluate EVERYONE in f3. keeping you alive would be stupid from a maf!tae perspective, but that's just my viewpoint on that. i feel like tessa dying with you me and sidney gives maf!sidney more wiggle room if that makes sense? bc she could build a case on you in hopes it convinces me or she knew you'd tinfoil me and potentially vote me instead.

Ok that makes sense.
I feel like it goes all ways with the nightkill and ultimately does boil down to- it gives us the least amount of info. Assume it's maf!tae, then you could have killed tessa to make this exact argument and pressure me into going forward with my betsy sus. It would give maf!all of us more wiggle room to convince each other, no? Which is why I want to be certain of my own right. Or at least believe myself enough I'm willing to go down with it

And that makes sense, too, lol.

there is...so many of these and it keeps entertaining me

shawo def made this game interesting to say the least

Yes, lol. Shawo was the same way in the only other game I've been in with him. Chaotic.
 
????

vvvvvv ???

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i waited to vote him until i heard his argument? but once he said "im not cop but what if sheeps lying?" i voted him bc thats stupid LOL
rereading here and i think this was misunderstood. i was talking about d1, which i don't think you did go as far as voting shawo. d2, even if maf!tae, you would've had no choice at this point
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im gonna go ahead and post my recaps so you guys can go ahead and clarify anything that's already asked or that you just want to idk but I don't feel like I'm going to be getting any further going back. I have a few theories though they're not very fleshed out
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Tae's recap (with some questions spiced in)

Tae D1 recap:
  • Interestingly, lots of engagement with shawo
    • But it’s all confrontational?
    • Distancing? Genuine?
  • Says gut is to never trust trent and never trust shawo
  • Is not down with sheep d1 violence (but shawo’s pointed out the benefit of d1 violence at this point..)
  • Defends trent’s no elim status
  • Then a “just for the record” about the sus on shawo and trent both being null now
  • Says trent is a “hard read”
  • Interestingly, mentions both me and betsy in a post, starting to throw sus on both d1
  • Focuses on what betsy’s mafia chat means for besty (obvlious!town or mafia ploy?)
  • Points out betsy’s townlean on shawo and specifically asked “random or shawo?”
    • If maf!tae, why put so much pressure towards a mafia partner? Distancing?
  • Interestingly, ONLY suspects me and betsy d1 (consistent opinions tho)
    • Town: Consistent
    • Mafia: Me and betsy are top suspects?
    • Town: Set up because of this
  • Thinks sheep wants to fear kill trent
  • Trent scary and hard to read
  • …Then claims Trent’s transparency and apathy towards dying = town
    • Can we get more on why so certain?
  • Agrees to the possibility mafia is leading the vote on trent

Tae D2 recap:
  • That one post about betsy and shawo beating them up lol
  • Tae disagrees with betsy’s fall guy argument
  • Calls shawo out for flipping a 180 on tessa
  • Townreads betsy; Thought betsy was softing cop (But yesterday said they suspected betsy…)
  • Yikes:™: at randoms start of day post
  • Offers up possibility of coaching for me but then goes idk because i was “shy”
  • For some reason then goes to asking sheep if they think it’s me or tessa, saying they don’t think it’s tessa
  • Ult says i’m the strongest maf read but then says it’s “process of elimination”

Tae D3 recap:
  • “Sidney or random”
  • Post 649
  • Tae clarifies the whole shawo vote was a joke
    • Think this would be a good distancing technique.
  • But says my skirmish with shawo is mafia ploy
  • Thinks i thought too much about the nightkill (not that I’m being asked here; but I was pattern following)
  • Would evaluate random if it was me and vice versa (Will you evaulate betsy again today? Or stick with that until you hear a better argument?)
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Betsy's recap

Betsy D1 recap:
  • Asks about elim vs no elim
  • Openly wants to vote out a wolf
    • Acting?
  • Volunteers starlit as a vote, says it was to prompt activity
    • Later says it was to bait inexperienced mafia
  • Backs off inactives when replacement is mentioned
  • Townleans sheep based off previous play
    • Later says “no idea”on sheep
  • Offers up random and tae for “no substance, no prodding, no voting”
  • Null read on trent; he’s “observing”; unsure for what
  • Mentions det miselim possibility as “The only reason not elim d1”
  • Why go for those “light on posting”?
    • Possibly: easy later cover up
    • Possibly: To avoid a yesterday situation
    • Also: with above point, why? (I don’t remember what this meant I wrote it at 2am)
  • Townleans shawo based off previous games
    • Additionally townleans me, starlit, and tessa
  • Stuck on random’s posts
    • Lol same
  • Points out similarities between my points and then tae’s later posts
  • Says tae has lots of unoriginal posts; does not see a tae/shawo team though
  • Ends d1 with a tae sus (“then random”)


Betsy D2 recap:
  • “Perfect fall guy”
  • “Ok with being voted; may give more info”
  • Positive on the reads being given
  • Shawo’s strongest town read
  • Interestingly, doesn’t think it’s me OR tae anymore
    • Why not tae anymore? Why not me anymore?
  • Overall not much else given; aside from random sus

Betsy D3 recap:
  • Thinks it’s random and focuses on random. BUT says never can be sure and tries to give a random a chance. Doesn’t vote random initially.
  • Says she doesn’t know who it would be outside of random
  • Tinfoil “shawo knew he would be investigated”
  • Some emphasis on not knowing shawo’s playstyle and regretting d1?
  • 688 betsy explains why she changed to not sussing tae
    • Betsy “would bus” but voting is “too far”
  • Betsy refuses to just vote random final day; says she’ll evaluate everyone
  • Then “sidney or random”
  • Points out how easy for mafia it would be to vote me out then random tomorrow
    • “I’m on the same side”
  • Won’t promise auto-vote to me to tae (think this would be an easier option for maf)
 
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rereading here and i think this was misunderstood. i was talking about d1, which i don't think you did go as far as voting shawo. d2, even if maf!tae, you would've had no choice at this point
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im gonna go ahead and post my recaps so you guys can go ahead and clarify anything that's already asked or that you just want to idk but I don't feel like I'm going to be getting any further going back. I have a few theories though they're not very fleshed out
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Tae's recap (with some questions spiced in)

wait i’m confused now, was i supposed to vote shawo d1?

Tae D1 recap:
  • Interestingly, lots of engagement with shawo
    • But it’s all confrontational?
    • Distancing? Genuine?
  • Says gut is to never trust trent and never trust shawo
  • Is not down with sheep d1 violence (but shawo’s pointed out the benefit of d1 violence at this point..)
  • Defends trent’s no elim status
  • Then a “just for the record” about the sus on shawo and trent both being null now
  • Says trent is a “hard read”
  • Interestingly, mentions both me and betsy in a post, starting to throw sus on both d1
  • Focuses on what betsy’s mafia chat means for besty (obvlious!town or mafia ploy?)
  • Points out betsy’s townlean on shawo and specifically asked “random or shawo?”
    • If maf!tae, why put so much pressure towards a mafia partner? Distancing?

not distancing, i have experience playing with shawo and always question him / push him due to bias from a 48 hour long duel tunnel on each other. pressure him and he either goes chaotic on you or he gives good arguments. either way pushing people for reactions is how you get people to slip up.

  • Interestingly, ONLY suspects me and betsy d1 (consistent opinions tho)
    • Town: Consistent
    • Mafia: Me and betsy are top suspects?
    • Town: Set up because of this
  • Thinks sheep wants to fear kill trent
  • Trent scary and hard to read
  • …Then claims Trent’s transparency and apathy towards dying = town
    • Can we get more on why so certain?

trent under pressure when mafia will usually fight or logic his way out of it. lying down and taking it doesn’t make me think he’s scummy. and granted how the push for him happened hours within EOD just seemed like it was a fear push onto him. which took him from my townlean+null to a stronger townlean. despite the no elim stance. i’ve played a lot of games where d1 gets a big push on a strong player and we end up losing them before the game truly even begins / given time to utilize them and their play styles. while people fight the mechanical sense of a d1 elim vs no elim, i don’t play hyper mechanically like shawo does and i still stand by my “i choose no elim over a strong townread” that early into the game. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  • Agrees to the possibility mafia is leading the vote on trent

and it was correct! although sheep started the sus (and maybe that was fear of a vet player, or differences in game mechanics, shawo took that sus from sheep and ran with it.

Tae D2 recap:
  • That one post about betsy and shawo beating them up lol
  • Tae disagrees with betsy’s fall guy argument
  • Calls shawo out for flipping a 180 on tessa
  • Townreads betsy; Thought betsy was softing cop (But yesterday said they suspected betsy…)

i sussed betsy harder for her OMGUS tactic when i made a small push on her for food for thought.

  • Yikes:™: at randoms start of day post
  • Offers up possibility of coaching for me but then goes idk because i was “shy”
  • For some reason then goes to asking sheep if they think it’s me or tessa, saying they don’t think it’s tessa

iirc at this time sheep already claimed cop and outed shawo. so ofc i would ask a hard locked townie their opinions of the game and where they stood in their findings and feelings on people. at this point too- i think shawo started his tessa push right out the gate of d2 so tessa vs you was asked bc tessa was under fire by shawo’s 180.

  • Ult says i’m the strongest maf read but then says it’s “process of elimination”

def started as process of elimination which pushed me to iso you and look into you more for d3. tessa was my hardest townread outside of sheep being hard claimed cop. shawo’s 180 on tessa only strengthened my townread on her bc it was a trent!push2.0 tessa edition from shawo. i pulled off my strong sus on betsy beginning of d2 after re-reading back and admitting her tinfoil theories and things i originally sussed her for were explained well enough to no longer tinfoil my hat about it myself. leaving you and random. and random was scummy in the sense that they were lazy!town in the end which yeah, ended with you as process of elimination at that point. (but i did say i’d revisit betsy if new info came into play, and that she wasn’t too locked imo)

Tae D3 recap:
  • “Sidney or random”
  • Post 649
  • Tae clarifies the whole shawo vote was a joke
    • Think this would be a good distancing technique.

what shawo vote was a joke?
oh you mean his “sidney is maf! discuss.” vote? to pressure his scum mate as a hot potato sus tactic?

  • But says my skirmish with shawo is mafia ploy
  • Thinks i thought too much about the nightkill (not that I’m being asked here; but I was pattern following)
  • Would evaluate random if it was me and vice versa (Will you evaulate betsy again today? Or stick with that until you hear a better argument?)

i was very clear that i would reevaluate betsy and that she was never completely townlocked to me. just stated that i wasn’t going to tunnel her for the same things i originally sussed her for bc she already addressed them. and nobody was building cases on anybody, so i took the initiative half way into d3 to build a case on my strongest read at the time (which happened to be you idk what to say.) i could be wrong and it could be maf!betsy and i got pocketed the whole time or just completely fooled here, but nobody’s built a case on her and i’m gonna try to iso her the best i can to see how she lands now.
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  • Won’t promise auto-vote to me to tae (think this would be an easier option for maf)

do you think her stance on not auto voting you with me makes her more town? or are you saying that it would just be easier if she did?


bc i think Betsy’s willingness to reevaluate everyone and not just auto vote you with me can still be seen as a ploy to appear town as well. like sure it would be easier to just auto vote you with me today- but she wasn’t super on board with voting you out over random the previous day- and was more ok with a split vote than committing to you. so if she showed up today like “YEAH TAE LETS GET SIDNEY!” i feel like that would look real bad to both of us.
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like if betsy! came out the gate d4 and just auto voted you after not really agreeing with me yesterday, i’d be willing to chance that it’s actually maf!betsy from that logic alone and vote her to pressure her sudden change of heart.
 
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wait i’m confused now, was i supposed to vote shawo d1?
no, i thought, and i may have misunderstood, betsy (i think) was saying that you wouldn’t be mafia because mafia wouldn’t go as far as voting their partner. That’s why i was like “uhhmm i don’t see a vote”; i thought we were discussing d1
not distancing, i have experience playing with shawo and always question him / push him due to bias from a 48 hour long duel tunnel on each other. pressure him and he either goes chaotic on you or he gives good arguments. either way pushing people for reactions is how you get people to slip up.
gotcha
trent under pressure when mafia will usually fight or logic his way out of it. lying down and taking it doesn’t make me think he’s scummy. and granted how the push for him happened hours within EOD just seemed like it was a fear push onto him. which took him from my townlean+null to a stronger townlean. despite the no elim stance. i’ve played a lot of games where d1 gets a big push on a strong player and we end up losing them before the game truly even begins / given time to utilize them and their play styles. while people fight the mechanical sense of a d1 elim vs no elim, i don’t play hyper mechanically like shawo does and i still stand by my “i choose no elim over a strong townread” that early into the game. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
i do wish we still had trent now, knowing he was town, lol
and it was correct! although sheep started the sus (and maybe that was fear of a vet player, or differences in game mechanics, shawo took that sus from sheep and ran with it.
i think shawo may have been trying to pin the blame on sheep
i sussed betsy harder for her OMGUS tactic when i made a small push on her for food for thought.
Gotcha
iirc at this time sheep already claimed cop and outed shawo. so ofc i would ask a hard locked townie their opinions of the game and where they stood in their findings and feelings on people. at this point too- i think shawo started his tessa push right out the gate of d2 so tessa vs you was asked bc tessa was under fire by shawo’s 180.
I was just curious why you chose the two of us specifically, which this still doesn’t quite answer. Did you have suspicions on the two of us only then?
def started as process of elimination which pushed me to iso you and look into you more for d3. tessa was my hardest townread outside of sheep being hard claimed cop. shawo’s 180 on tessa only strengthened my townread on her bc it was a trent!push2.0 tessa edition from shawo. i pulled off my strong sus on betsy beginning of d2 after re-reading back and admitting her tinfoil theories and things i originally sussed her for were explained well enough to no longer tinfoil my hat about it myself. leaving you and random. and random was scummy in the sense that they were lazy!town in the end which yeah, ended with you as process of elimination at that point. (but i did say i’d revisit betsy if new info came into play, and that she wasn’t too locked imo)
gotcha
what shawo vote was a joke?
no, the one you did d1; saying you’d vote them out
i was very clear that i would reevaluate betsy and that she was never completely townlocked to me. just stated that i wasn’t going to tunnel her for the same things i originally sussed her for bc she already addressed them. and nobody was building cases on anybody, so i took the initiative half way into d3 to build a case on my strongest read at the time (which happened to be you idk what to say.) i could be wrong and it could be maf!betsy and i got pocketed the whole time or just completely fooled here, but nobody’s built a case on her and i’m gonna try to iso her the best i can to see how she lands now.
I’m not sussing you for sussing me lol unlike with shawo i don’t think you were just going for an easy target here. Just curious to see your opinions on both of us today

do you think her stance on not auto voting you with me makes her more town? or are you saying that it would just be easier if she did?
I think her stance on auto voting reads town, at least on the surface, but
bc i think Betsy’s willingness to reevaluate everyone and not just auto vote you with me can still be seen as a ploy to appear town as well. like sure it would be easier to just auto vote you with me today- but she wasn’t super on board with voting you out over random the previous day- and was more ok with a split vote than committing to you. so if she showed up today like “YEAH TAE LETS GET SIDNEY!” i feel like that would look real bad to both of us.

like if betsy! came out the gate d4 and just auto voted you after not really agreeing with me yesterday, i’d be willing to chance that it’s actually maf!betsy from that logic alone and vote her to pressure her sudden change of heart.
I also see this argument 100%

Also the “YEAH TAE” keeps cracking me up and I’m in a lecture

If betsy had said “ok yeah i’ll vote sidney tomorrow” i think i’d be like. yeah so mafia is definitely betsy. if that makes sense that is what i was trying to say
but…she didn’t do that. though, I’m not sure that equals town either
 
no, i thought, and i may have misunderstood, betsy (i think) was saying that you wouldn’t be mafia because mafia wouldn’t go as far as voting their partner. That’s why i was like “uhhmm i don’t see a vote”; i thought we were discussing d1

oh yeah okay i see what you mean.

gotcha

i do wish we still had trent now, knowing he was town, lol

i think shawo may have been trying to pin the blame on sheep

poorly but i agree with this yeah. say town make a push and just agreed and pushed harder for it. less sus on him but after flipping red the motive is obvious.


Gotcha

I was just curious why you chose the two of us specifically, which this still doesn’t quite answer. Did you have suspicions on the two of us only then?

gotcha

did the second part answer it or do i divulge more?

no, the one you did d1; saying you’d vote them out

oh that was a personal joke jab at him from the last game bc i just like seeing shawo die. (i adore him as a person but am 100% committed to killing him in mafia any chance i can just bc i can and i think him getting voted out is hilarious and feeds my ego. he tunneled me hard as mafia once and lost and i will never let him forget it.) it was 100% not serious i promise you i just was being cheeky.


I’m not sussing you for sussing me lol unlike with shawo i don’t think you were just going for an easy target here. Just curious to see your opinions on both of us today


I think her stance on auto voting reads town, at least on the surface, but

I also see this argument 100%

Also the “YEAH TAE” keeps cracking me up and I’m in a lecture

i say it in my head like lil wayne says “YEAH!!! OKAYYYY”

If betsy had said “ok yeah i’ll vote sidney tomorrow” i think i’d be like. yeah so mafia is definitely betsy. if that makes sense that is what i was trying to say
but…she didn’t do that. though, I’m not sure that equals town either

it can be very towny but also very scummy. just depends on the sense you view it from. which sucks bc it doesn’t help solidify jack.
 
Ok before I get to the reads, wanted to post an explanation of the way I see this game pretty much every time, my 'meta', if you will. And don't worry, unlike the rest of this post, it's not long winded.

Screenshot_20221024-140446_Gallery.jpg

Yep. Everyone is a possibility, no matter how town they seem. Always question everything, and probably still get it wrong and embarrass myself with my wrong reads and tinfoil theories.

D1 questions/etc
A bit out of order cuz mobile quoting sucks...

The heartbreak of going back and looking at d1 is knowing that my tinfoil theory of a shawo/random mafslip was wrong. Ouch. I still contend that those posts were super sus, though.

Of some interest -the chain of posts after the 'sidney is maf, discuss' post (39). Trent, tae, and myself all respond fairly neutral on sidney, and/or ask shawo to explain why sidney. He doesn't, the 'not gonna say' the reason post (shawo 43).

Trent's response to that (44) mentions tae specifically, and my response mentions random and also tae (52). But shawo townread me while tae sus read me, and trent was the one shawo targeted?

And I don't understand what he meant in this one-
I mean yeah sure, it was effective bait in the sense that it generated conversation, but I could also assert that I genuinely do/still find Sydney the most scummy. What I'm saying is that ~no one~ was really getting pushed off the Sydney read. Where it's a pretty easy opportunity to try and push anyone in lieu of calling sydney maf/town.

A lot of shawo's posts are more confusing each time I go back to them.

In later arguments (d3/sidney is sus case) tae theorizes that shawo - bringing sidney up first as possible maf and later reading as town - could be using it as a distancing strategy that he's seen in other games. But tae also said he would kill shawo early d1 then backtracked it later. Also, shawo did actually vote sidney, but then later removed it (to go after trent?). Also later removed sus of sidney.
i also wouldn’t seriously vote him d1 simply because of our previous game played outcome- that was a **** post to stir the pot on him.

Also wanted to mention - some of us received some sus for wanting to kill off low activity/ inactives and I'm curious if this opinion has changed any? I regard low activity players as a curse on the game, because they can be very frustrating to deal with, and at worst, kept alive and then later used by maf as easy targets.

It’s two parts of the same answer. I think randomly killing off someone less active is not a good idea,

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DO NOT VOTE D1 INACTIVES. Let them be replaced if they never show, i know former games some of you played did not do replacements but let’s not elim someone slotted to be replaced.

This next quote is shawo saying he would flip off trent to get elim. I did not push random or tae (not confident enough) but I wish I would have pushed one of them now, because I've been assuming shawo would have flipped onto tae, because of the omgus war.

Also, just as a warning, we should not split our votes off of a potential Elim. While I'm going to push Trent, I'll flip off if it means no elim is going to win. (Star/Random/Trent) on no Elim.
But there was this other post to both myself and tae.
tbh @BetsySundrop @tae we should just vote trent here to stop a forced no elim. I'm not entirely sure why you guys were on eachothers case still, but the alternative of getting a no elim here is the worst option I think. Trent doesn't seem super interested in keeping themselves alive in the last 30 minutes either.

Speaking of the omgus...one thing that actually irks me (even my own possible d1 town death doesn't irk me like this does, lol) and flips my omgus switch is when I believe I've been misrepresented, or I see someone misrepresenting others. I always try to explain thoroughly when I think something isn't accurate. Out of everything in this game, I think misrepresenting is super sus.

In my questions for sidney d3, I went into some detail on how I believed the d1 conversation was misrepped and then used as a sus. As sidney put it, shawo said sidney is maf, etc, I responded (did not agree), then I immediately threw out two other names. I believe (and correct me if I've got it wrong) sidney viewed this as a possible team targeting 3 people. However, this entire conversation went from post 39 all the way to 52, only a few of those from me, with other people responding with names/arguments/questions, etc.

And this is what I thought was a misrep from tae and my response to it.
I's hard for it to not show as OMGUS when your whole sus is based on inactivity at the start, when you know tunneling inactive players DOES NOT BENIFIT TOWN. so the next best option is me. the one who sussed you the hardest of anyone else here.

If you had read my early responses to this exact question, you would have the answer to this. And again, this post is inaccurate.

My earlier response was that in the last game we had inactive players, they were not replaced. It is extremely difficult on d3 when absent players have not shown up. Dan clarified that absent players would be replaced.

My sus on random was explained. Low (extremely) activity is not modkilled until later in the game, and more important (to me) is that weird got it post.

My sus on you was not based on early inactivity. That was the beginning sus. As time goes on, I see more sus and I explained those things.

If I wanted to vote the one who susses me hardest, I'd vote sidney, because sidney sussed me earlier at a time when she was being questioned. It would have been easy to push it, but as much as sidney susses me, it feels genuine, not just someone hopping on to create a wagon.
So I'll try to clarify anything I see as a misrep, and if anyone thinks I've misrepped, please correct me.

I noticed for d1 sidney, there were a lot of unsubstantial post at first, mostly about being lost and new, which was questioned and mentioned in later susses, but I also noticed this:

I worry my gut opinions would send us down rabbit holes or backfire and get us to elim a townie instead of a mafia
And it's a valid reason to be wary. Also saw explanation of being sussed in other game for posting too much, etc?

Pausing for a break, back later with more thoughts.
 
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o also will be back after 7PM MT. currently about to start my work session. liking your betsy to show i read it i also will repond when im back.
 
Briefly looked through posts so far and had to add this-
bc i think Betsy’s willingness to reevaluate everyone and not just auto vote you with me can still be seen as a ploy to appear town as well.

I can say I'm town, but that is not helpful. Here is the most logical argument I can make for my own case, and I really, really hope whichever of you is town reads it and takes it into consideration.

Very late in D3:

Sidney has 2 votes (tae, tessa). Random has 1 (sidney).
It is late and appears random said he was voting sidney but forgot to actually vote.
All the way up to the end, tessa and tae are holding their votes on sidney. I have 2 choices, vote sidney, vote random.

i still 99% think its sidney. & if i survive the night and shes there for f3 im holding true.
i just don't like the idea of the split vote even if theyre both scummy for different reasons.

If it were maf!betsy (it's not), the easy win would be:

Vote sidney. This would kill the person who sussed me most and I could blame tae/tessa for misleading me.
Nk - anyone but random
F3 - results in maf advantage because of random

If it were maf!betsy - I supposedly left alive the person who sussed me most when it was the town consensus to vote them out?
When I could have had tessa/random/myself in f3? And tessa was super sus of random and leaned me town? Insanity. Anyone actually suggesting this is kicking my radar in a big way.

Instead- as town!betsy, I understood the cases against sidney from tae/tessa, and I thought yeah it's possible, could be sidney....asked some questions (like why my d1 was all manufactured lol) of sidney, got answers, and thought crap, I dunno. Might be sidney, might be random....

But I had the nagging feeling that something was off. It almost appeared like a railroad job on sidney. In my late reads I actually posted what I thought was going on.
I am kind of (very) worried about an f3 with random in it. My worry is that it would be the perfect scenario for a wolf - an easily pressured random, an innocent town, and a devious wolf who did not vote random d3....hmmm

And this from tae after I posted the above and after I voted random.
sidney is my #1 feeling, but betsy is hard set on her vote and i dont have faith in random.
betsy's mafia can easily mold random to vote f3 scares the **** out me, but also, if i survive the night and sidney is still alive then i still have my argument and i will take it to my townie grave if i gotta push until the very end

Makes no sense at all. Yes, betsy was hard set on her random vote. So how in the world would betsy molding random when I'd already voted him and brought up this very possibility as one of my reasons for voting him? I even asked....
But why would i be intending to mold random in f3 if I'm trying to get rid of him now?!

No answer. I am never, ever confident in who I think is town/wolf. So I try not to pressure anyone into flipping their votes to mine (I am wrong far too often for that), and I have to try to look for the best chance for town in case we get it wrong. And by voting random, I was trying for best case scenario (maf!random) while trying to avoid worst case scenario (random being targeted in f3).

Am I an idiot? Did I save maf!sidney? Psh...maybe. But it is very possible the sidney push was maf motivated in order to bring random (on many, many sus lists) into f3.
 
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Ok before I get to the reads, wanted to post an explanation of the way I see this game pretty much every time, my 'meta', if you will. And don't worry, unlike the rest of this post, it's not long winded.


Yep. Everyone is a possibility, no matter how town they seem. Always question everything, and probably still get it wrong and embarrass myself with my wrong reads and tinfoil theories.

D1 questions/etc
A bit out of order cuz mobile quoting sucks...

The heartbreak of going back and looking at d1 is knowing that my tinfoil theory of a shawo/random mafslip was wrong. Ouch. I still contend that those posts were super sus, though.

Of some interest -the chain of posts after the 'sidney is maf, discuss' post (39). Trent, tae, and myself all respond fairly neutral on sidney, and/or ask shawo to explain why sidney. He doesn't, the 'not gonna say' the reason post (shawo 43).

Trent's response to that (44) mentions tae specifically, and my response mentions random and also tae (52). But shawo townread me while tae sus read me, and trent was the one shawo targeted?

And I don't understand what he meant in this one-


A lot of shawo's posts are more confusing each time I go back to them.

In later arguments (d3/sidney is sus case) tae theorizes that shawo - bringing sidney up first as possible maf and later reading as town - could be using it as a distancing strategy that he's seen in other games. But tae also said he would kill shawo early d1 then backtracked it later. Also, shawo did actually vote sidney, but then later removed it (to go after trent?). Also later removed sus of sidney.
Yeah, I mean, I can sort of see the line of thought for me/shawo but it is weird that tae did very similar
Also wanted to mention - some of us received some sus for wanting to kill off low activity/ inactives and I'm curious if this opinion has changed any? I regard low activity players as a curse on the game, because they can be very frustrating to deal with, and at worst, kept alive and then later used by maf as easy targets.
I;m taking that back personally. random taught me a lesson (sorry random; i wish you could've participated more). Though, I'm still glad we didn't due to possibility of cop dying. I do wish we'd gotten someone that would've given more info
This next quote is shawo saying he would flip off trent to get elim. I did not push random or tae (not confident enough) but I wish I would have pushed one of them now, because I've been assuming shawo would have flipped onto tae, because of the omgus war.


But there was this other post to both myself and tae.


Speaking of the omgus...one thing that actually irks me (even my own possible d1 town death doesn't irk me like this does, lol) and flips my omgus switch is when I believe I've been misrepresented, or I see someone misrepresenting others. I always try to explain thoroughly when I think something isn't accurate. Out of everything in this game, I think misrepresenting is super sus.

In my questions for sidney d3, I went into some detail on how I believed the d1 conversation was misrepped and then used as a sus. As sidney put it, shawo said sidney is maf, etc, I responded (did not agree), then I immediately threw out two other names. I believe (and correct me if I've got it wrong) sidney viewed this as a possible team targeting 3 people. However, this entire conversation went from post 39 all the way to 52, only a few of those from me, with other people responding with names/arguments/questions, etc.
I did view this as possible team targeting a bunch of people. I still think it's a possibility, but I don't think it's all that strong an argument at this poitn
And this is what I thought was a misrep from tae and my response to it.



So I'll try to clarify anything I see as a misrep, and if anyone thinks I've misrepped, please correct me.

I noticed for d1 sidney, there were a lot of unsubstantial post at first, mostly about being lost and new, which was questioned and mentioned in later susses, but I also noticed this:


And it's a valid reason to be wary. Also saw explanation of being sussed in other game for posting too much, etc?
Yeah. I only played one other mafia game before this, two years ago actually I realized recently lol. Iirc I was suspected for having bad reads and posting too much; so I was trying to see if I could observe and come up with some better opinions before throwing around suspicions. I'm unfamiliar with the idea of randomly calling someone mafia to generate activity, and thought people would easily side with shawo as the more experienced player, which is why I quickly jumped to defending myself. I still think shawo was looking for an easy target; esp with how quickly they latched on to trent after
Pausing for a break, back later with more thoughts.
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Briefly looked through posts so far and had to add this-


I can say I'm town, but that is not helpful. Here is the most logical argument I can make for my own case, and I really, really hope whichever of you is town reads it and takes it into consideration.

Very late in D3:

Sidney has 2 votes (tae, tessa). Random has 1 (sidney).
It is late and appears random said he was voting sidney but forgot to actually vote.
All the way up to the end, tessa and tae are holding their votes on sidney. I have 2 choices, vote sidney, vote random.



If it were maf!betsy (it's not), the easy win would be:

Vote sidney. This would kill the person who sussed me most and I could blame tae/tessa for misleading me.
Nk - anyone but random
F3 - results in maf advantage because of random

If it were maf!betsy - I supposedly left alive the person who sussed me most when it was the town consensus to vote them out?
When I could have had tessa/random/myself in f3? And tessa was super sus of random and leaned me town? Insanity. Anyone actually suggesting this is kicking my radar in a big way.

Instead- as town!betsy, I understood the cases against sidney from tae/tessa, and I thought yeah it's possible, could be sidney....asked some questions (like why my d1 was all manufactured lol) of sidney, got answers, and thought crap, I dunno. Might be sidney, might be random....

But I had the nagging feeling that something was off. It almost appeared like a railroad job on sidney. In my late reads I actually posted what I thought was going on.


And this from tae after I posted the above and after I voted random.


Makes no sense at all. Yes, betsy was hard set on her random vote. So how in the world would betsy molding random when I'd already voted him and brought up this very possibility as one of my reasons for voting him? I even asked....


No answer. I am never, ever confident in who I think is town/wolf. So I try not to pressure anyone into flipping their votes to mine (I am wrong far too often for that), and I have to try to look for the best chance for town in case we get it wrong. And by voting random, I was trying for best case scenario (maf!random) while trying to avoid worst case scenario (random being targeted in f3).

Am I an idiot? Did I save maf!sidney? Psh...maybe. But it is very possible the sidney push was maf motivated in order to bring random (on many, many sus lists) into f3.
I hate to side with any person yet but I can see this argument very well right now. I can't understand why maf!betsy would leave me alive when I was an easy option yesterday, aside from to possibly get me to let down my guard. But that seems so much more difficult than just offing me, esp when tae even said they would evaluate random again tomorrow. could also always say she thought i was trying to off random as an easy maf target or something idk

Will wait to see what tae has to say
 
And this from tae after I posted the above and after I voted random.
Makes no sense at all. Yes, betsy was hard set on her random vote. So how in the world would betsy molding random when I'd already voted him and brought up this very possibility as one of my reasons for voting him? I even asked....


// i ****ed up your quote post but my phrasing of “betsy’s maff yadda yadda” was me agreeing with you. i didn’t put it in parenthesis and i can see why it was confusing. i wasn’t saying maf!betsy here i was saying Betsy’s mafia molding random fear was valid and i also agreed with it.


No answer. I am never, ever confident in who I think is town/wolf. So I try not to pressure anyone into flipping their votes to mine (I am wrong far too often for that), and I have to try to look for the best chance for town in case we get it wrong. And by voting random, I was trying for best case scenario (maf!random) while trying to avoid worst case scenario (random being targeted in f3).

Am I an idiot? Did I save maf!sidney? Psh...maybe. But it is very possible the sidney push was maf motivated in order to bring random (on many, many sus lists) into f3.
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@ the maf!betsy killing random over killing sidney as an easier d4 at the end.


it’s the same logic of me saying what i said last night about killing tessa. killing my townread and leaving betsy alive was not the easy route for maf!tae to take. so if my argument of “why would i do it this way and no this other way” is just as valid as my argument of tessa being the NK is a bad move for me if i was mafia.


all of it can be viewed by either side. it’s the only defense we all have but none of it makes any of us any more town!(x) over maf!(x)
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also food for thought on maf!betsy:

by not killing her biggest susser (sidney) and leaving me alive knowing i was going to push sidney today could be viable. killing your biggest sus as mafia can be viewed as super convenient. like wow guys, sidney was super sus of betsy! and now she’s dead!! that would look pretty bad. don’t you think?
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also i’m still at work haven’t left for home yet, but just wanted to reply a bit.
 
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I can feel tessa in the graveyard, it's like hearing a hollow "glad it's not my decision" echoing up through the thread...it isn't fair....
 
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Makes no sense at all. Yes, betsy was hard set on her random vote. So how in the world would betsy molding random when I'd already voted him and brought up this very possibility as one of my reasons for voting him? I even asked....


// i ****ed up your quote post but my phrasing of “betsy’s maff yadda yadda” was me agreeing with you. i didn’t put it in parenthesis and i can see why it was confusing. i wasn’t saying maf!betsy here i was saying Betsy’s mafia molding random fear was valid and i also agreed with it.



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@ the maf!betsy killing random over killing sidney as an easier d4 at the end.


it’s the same logic of me saying what i said last night about killing tessa. killing my townread and leaving betsy alive was not the easy route for maf!tae to take. so if my argument of “why would i do it this way and no this other way” is just as valid as my argument of tessa being the NK is a bad move for me if i was mafia.


all of it can be viewed by either side. it’s the only defense we all have but none of it makes any of us any more town!(x) over maf!(x)
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also food for thought on maf!betsy:

by not killing her biggest susser (sidney) and leaving me alive knowing i was going to push sidney today could be viable. killing your biggest sus as mafia can be viewed as super convenient. like wow guys, sidney was super sus of betsy! and now she’s dead!! that would look pretty bad. don’t you think?
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also i’m still at work haven’t left for home yet, but just wanted to reply a bit.
i can see this argument too actually, and think it does really all boil down to "mafia giving us nothing to work off of"

Though, I do wonder why you started this day with talking about the nk first thing when i thought it was pretty straightforward

ugh

I don't even know where to look right now to figure it out

but tbh
i know we're all busy but i feel like this quiet is making it worse

hoping for good discussions tonight and tomorrow
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I can feel tessa in the graveyard, it's like hearing a hollow "glad it's not my decision" echoing up through the thread...it isn't fair....
yeahhhh 😭😭
 
i can see this argument too actually, and think it does really all boil down to "mafia giving us nothing to work off of"

Though, I do wonder why you started this day with talking about the nk first thing when i thought it was pretty straightforward

ugh

I don't even know where to look right now to figure it out

but tbh
i know we're all busy but i feel like this quiet is making it worse

hoping for good discussions tonight and tomorrow
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yeahhhh 😭😭


i always kinda think about the NKs tho. some
seem super obvious while others like this one has so many facets to them they can’t not boggle my mind. i was tin foiling ideas because overall a tessa kill makes no sense for so many situations but your view on it “not leaving much” i somewhat agree on. but it also leaves too much imo. not anything super straightforward it’s all “time to tinfoil” it all, which is frustrating as hell if i’m honest.
 
// i ****ed up your quote post but my phrasing of “betsy’s maff yadda yadda” was me agreeing with you. i didn’t put it in parenthesis and i can see why it was confusing. i wasn’t saying maf!betsy here i was saying Betsy’s mafia molding random fear was valid and i also agreed with it.

Ah, got it. Thanks for clarifying.

I'm still looking at everything, reading over and over and over, but I'm gonna go over and check out the halloween event. Maybe something will stand out more if I take a break from it for the night. It's really frustrating...
 
but also i’ve played more games than you have so i’ve trained my brain to overthink everything it possibly can. bc when all i know is my own role, its mostly grasping for any crumb or any theory i can to make sense of other people’s actions. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
but also i’ve played more games than you have so i’ve trained my brain to overthink everything it possibly can. bc when all i know is my own role, its mostly grasping for any crumb or any theory i can to make sense of other people’s actions. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Makes sense to me tbh

all the faucets of possibilities just lead me right back to this being the kill that gives us nothing (and everything too, i suppose)

it;s nothing definite enough to convict anyone which just makes me o_O
 
this is making my stomach hurt lol

tae, are you going to be making any arguments tonight?

betsy, are you leaning towards either of us?
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regardless of which of you it is i will give you that you are very smart and sneaky

so many moves here that both do and don’t seem to make sense for mafia on both of you

I’m thinking more talking will give less room for the mafia to hide at this point, but I feel we’ve covered so many of the talking points already. At least the ones I can think up
 
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