maybe i cant wrap my head around it just being a townslip. i can't factor out the possibility of being coached to say an incredibly out of pocket assumption on a two word post. maybe ive stared at the thread too much today to not have that gut feeling.
Mafia Monster Mash Mafia Game Thread (Town Win!)
- Thread starter Damniel
- Start date
maybe i cant wrap my head around it just being a townslip. i can't factor out the possibility of being coached to say an incredibly out of pocket assumption on a two word post. maybe ive stared at the thread too much today to not have that gut feeling.
BetsySundrop
🧙♀️ 🧹
While we might end up voting each other, I'm likely going to vote tae today. I'll explain my reasoning, and it's based on a few things, not an omgus, as I've had tae on my sus list from early on (post #52).
I understand sidney questioning me on my interaction with shawo, and referred sidney to the actual posts in which several people were posting who they'd vote, not just myself and shawo. Also my response was to a direct question from shawo. But tae seems to have just hopped on the wagon.
I explained my theories on the got it post (more than one) and tae misrepresented these even after thorough explanation.
When I went through for reread, I wrote down possible teams. I had tae/sidney, tae/sheep, and tae/trent, shawo/trent. I eliminated teams of people who had a strong town read (at least imho) on just one of them (sheep, shawo).
I can't make up my mind on trent, I know it's not me, and sidney is pushing back more and asking questions here at eod. So I'm left with 2 choices-
Totally_RandomYT, because it is waaay too frustrating to keep a low activity player- and he won't be modkilled til after d2, (and for the oddball got it post).
Tae- I see people put out theories/ideas, and then I see tae repeat those theories, following instead of posting original ideas. A lot of sus being thrown out, but some of it inaccurately or just slightly off the original thought.
So it's one of those, and it'll probably be tae.
I understand sidney questioning me on my interaction with shawo, and referred sidney to the actual posts in which several people were posting who they'd vote, not just myself and shawo. Also my response was to a direct question from shawo. But tae seems to have just hopped on the wagon.
I explained my theories on the got it post (more than one) and tae misrepresented these even after thorough explanation.
When I went through for reread, I wrote down possible teams. I had tae/sidney, tae/sheep, and tae/trent, shawo/trent. I eliminated teams of people who had a strong town read (at least imho) on just one of them (sheep, shawo).
I can't make up my mind on trent, I know it's not me, and sidney is pushing back more and asking questions here at eod. So I'm left with 2 choices-
Totally_RandomYT, because it is waaay too frustrating to keep a low activity player- and he won't be modkilled til after d2, (and for the oddball got it post).
Tae- I see people put out theories/ideas, and then I see tae repeat those theories, following instead of posting original ideas. A lot of sus being thrown out, but some of it inaccurately or just slightly off the original thought.
So it's one of those, and it'll probably be tae.
sorry, just saw this part two
I think all of them make sense as of now but I’m not really sold on a particular convo. Further goal regardless of what random flips would be figuring out you and betsy; so it may not actually generate the most info….Though I’d see it as more of a loss for the moment to lose you over random, since you’ve been offering things of value, so, random over you if i was forced to elim one, which i think it what was asked of me iirc
at the moment i lean most towards betsy/random with betsy throwing random under the bus now, i think ?
also, haven’t voted yet; was responding to a question asked of me to keep generating discussion. I’m open to other opinions
Trent is my biggest SR - and it's mostly because of the lazy town persona that they're playing.
Obviously, the issue in that is the assumption that they're playing a persona, but here's the reason I think they're mafia playing a persona.
Their personality has barely shifted at all from the start to the end of the game. Sure, posting to have fun, push for questions, ETC, but every single person in this game, (barring random lol) has had a relatively large shift in viewpoints/reads/thought process. Trent not offering any of that isn't inherently maffy per say, but it also feels like trent is intentionally playing into a lazy town character. There's just a lot of commitment to relatively few ideas, and I feel like town!trent would've done... more. Even as lazy town. Like. Trent is clearly reading the thread, but it feels like they're picking and choosing which posts to... send a meme response to?
I think mafia!trent.
Obviously, the issue in that is the assumption that they're playing a persona, but here's the reason I think they're mafia playing a persona.
Their personality has barely shifted at all from the start to the end of the game. Sure, posting to have fun, push for questions, ETC, but every single person in this game, (barring random lol) has had a relatively large shift in viewpoints/reads/thought process. Trent not offering any of that isn't inherently maffy per say, but it also feels like trent is intentionally playing into a lazy town character. There's just a lot of commitment to relatively few ideas, and I feel like town!trent would've done... more. Even as lazy town. Like. Trent is clearly reading the thread, but it feels like they're picking and choosing which posts to... send a meme response to?
I think mafia!trent.
BetsySundrop
🧙♀️ 🧹
No idea, but I was trying to solve that stupid got it post. They better explain it end of game, lol.
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What is your theory on the got it post?
Praise betsy.
Also, just as a warning, we should not split our votes off of a potential Elim. While I'm going to push Trent, I'll flip off if it means no elim is going to win. (Star/Random/Trent) on no Elim.
BetsySundrop
🧙♀️ 🧹
Who do you think would be their other half?
Sheep Villager
Feel free to call me Sheep
Tessa- Pretty much giving me normal town Tessa? Wolf Tessa I know as someone who will bounce on to the first suspect they can and then camp there regardless of what else is going on in the thread. I'm seeing more interest in gathering information than latching on to something with the intensity of an alligator.
Random- Not much has changed tbh. Looking in to the new post doesn't give much at all and I'm still at that 50/50 could go either ways spot. Kinda getting the energy of someone who just doesn't like reading, which isn't exactly a new thing on tbt mafia. I'd also like to point out a lot of people are assuming Random will get subbed out for their current behavior, however it's worth keeping in mind if this is a mafia strat they might not get subbed?
Sidney-
This feels like something far too spicy for a new wolf to say ngl. Setting yourself up to catch the bad end of the stick if you wagon is not a look I'd ever expect. When you're a new wolf it's far easier to just sheep and firmly squeeze yourself in to the pocket of whoever is the loudest and most widely tr'd.
Random- Not much has changed tbh. Looking in to the new post doesn't give much at all and I'm still at that 50/50 could go either ways spot. Kinda getting the energy of someone who just doesn't like reading, which isn't exactly a new thing on tbt mafia. I'd also like to point out a lot of people are assuming Random will get subbed out for their current behavior, however it's worth keeping in mind if this is a mafia strat they might not get subbed?
Sidney-
This feels like something far too spicy for a new wolf to say ngl. Setting yourself up to catch the bad end of the stick if you wagon is not a look I'd ever expect. When you're a new wolf it's far easier to just sheep and firmly squeeze yourself in to the pocket of whoever is the loudest and most widely tr'd.
BetsySundrop
🧙♀️ 🧹
I'd take star off and add tae for mine.
Tae/random/trent...
And I agree on not splitting. Currently 3 no elims - trent, starlit, random (last i checked) and i dont think its gonna change.
@BetsySundrop i don't think its a bandwagon if im not voting.
you sussed me for not poking or prodding super early on, and instead asking other's opinions and what not and that's cool and all. you do you.
your two biggest scum reads as of now are someone who's COMPLETELY inactive, and someone who scum-leaned you the hardest.
you say its not OMGUS but like, outside of my somewhat doormant start of game, and someone being inactive all game, thats the whole theory.
you sussed me for not poking or prodding super early on, and instead asking other's opinions and what not and that's cool and all. you do you.
you can't get a read on trent and say im just repeating other's points but i was the one who originally questioned your omg maf chat theory. trent agreed with me in a way with the "oh golly" post. so go off i guess.
your two biggest scum reads as of now are someone who's COMPLETELY inactive, and someone who scum-leaned you the hardest.
you say its not OMGUS but like, outside of my somewhat doormant start of game, and someone being inactive all game, thats the whole theory.That's what I was going to cover, actually. Trent's intentional low effort -> high response gameplay doesn't inherently show any partner tells, but I do think other people's read on Trent does. A lot of people have given a very lazy maf!trent but not really sure since low effort. Vote dynamics is going to be a lot more telling than not, since theoretically, if everyone's fine with Trent, there'd be a relatively easy push to get them killed.
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Haha Betsy, I was putting the three people that no elim'd. Not my mafpool. I'm not inherently against a Tae read, but I don't think their game is nearly as manufactured as Trent's.
it's hard for it to not show as OMGUS when your whole sus is based on inactivity at the start, when you know tunneling inactive players DOES NOT BENIFIT TOWN. so the next best option is me. the one who sussed you the hardest of anyone else here.
BetsySundrop
🧙♀️ 🧹
I think its hopping onto ideas others originally put out without taking into account or accurately representing the following explanations.@BetsySundrop i don't think its a bandwagon if im not voting.
you sussed me for not poking or prodding super early on, and instead asking other's opinions and what not and that's cool and all. you do you.
you can't get a read on trent and say im just repeating other's points but i was the one who originally questioned your omg maf chat theory. trent agreed with me in a way with the "oh golly" post. so go off i guess.
your two biggest scum reads as of now are someone who's COMPLETELY inactive, and someone who scum-leaned you the hardest.
Also for strongly town reading one of the more sus players (trent). Could be coincidence, could be team, dunno.
Sheep Villager
Feel free to call me Sheep
That leaves me with my official list of who will I be open to voting today and who I won't. List is slightly subject to change.
Will not vote today: Shawo, Betsy, Tessa, Tae
If something spicy happens by them I may vote: Sidney
Will vote one of these unless EOD reveals something magical: Trent, Starlit
Null zone: Random. Only voting if for whatever reason we dip back in to a no-vote dominant world.
Right now my process of elimination is in favor of Trent more than Starlit. I just have not had the chance to talk with Starlit at all and I have so many questions I'd like to ask if I make it to d2.
Will not vote today: Shawo, Betsy, Tessa, Tae
If something spicy happens by them I may vote: Sidney
Will vote one of these unless EOD reveals something magical: Trent, Starlit
Null zone: Random. Only voting if for whatever reason we dip back in to a no-vote dominant world.
Right now my process of elimination is in favor of Trent more than Starlit. I just have not had the chance to talk with Starlit at all and I have so many questions I'd like to ask if I make it to d2.
The only issue I have with making a specific maf pool are the two that haven't talked as much. I agree that star isn't actually v scummy. While they haven't posted a lot what they have posted is pretty decent. To be honest, I think Sheep could be mafia, since while they do have similar reads to me, I don't feel like they've necessarily gone about them in the same way I would've. I don't? think Sheep/Trent are both mafia? I guess it's possible, but generally I feel like it isn't like mafia to just sit back and not try to take control of the game.
If anything, if Trent is mafia, I'd be shocked if Trent was mafia with either Random or Star for that very reason. If Trent takes a laissez-faire approach, there's no real way to be able to save a mafia partner in this situation. And having 1 mafia with det alive is basically a loss.
Another big reason I'm very set on the Trent vote, is I feel like it helps solve. IMO - Random/Trent are both inherently similar as far as contribution to the game is going, the difference is Trent has posted actively and read. If Trent!Town, we can see how people split onto the vote vs no elim. Trent!Maf probably just wins the game on the spot as well.
The only actual downside to the fact that I'm not super set on my read, is that there's a chance we're going to end up using the ML on Random the next day, meaning that if Trent was going to towntell d2, we'd be missing an opportunity to see that.
If anything, if Trent is mafia, I'd be shocked if Trent was mafia with either Random or Star for that very reason. If Trent takes a laissez-faire approach, there's no real way to be able to save a mafia partner in this situation. And having 1 mafia with det alive is basically a loss.
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Another big reason I'm very set on the Trent vote, is I feel like it helps solve. IMO - Random/Trent are both inherently similar as far as contribution to the game is going, the difference is Trent has posted actively and read. If Trent!Town, we can see how people split onto the vote vs no elim. Trent!Maf probably just wins the game on the spot as well.
The only actual downside to the fact that I'm not super set on my read, is that there's a chance we're going to end up using the ML on Random the next day, meaning that if Trent was going to towntell d2, we'd be missing an opportunity to see that.
Maybe unrelated, but Sheep seems willing to push Trent. I still don't think Sheep mafs with Trent. I'm not sure solving for team dynamics here is going to be super useful though. It's easy to fake posts but it's hard to fake votes.
You think Betsy!Maf tries to force an omgus onto someone who isn't really on anyone's elim list? (You)
You think Betsy!Maf tries to force an omgus onto someone who isn't really on anyone's elim list? (You)
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You think Betsy!Maf tries to force an omgus onto someone who isn't really on anyone's elim list? (You)
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You think Betsy!Maf tries to force an omgus onto someone who isn't really on anyone's elim list? (You)
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Wanna park votes on trent with me
sorry just saw this while re-reading.
that it was a half-assed attempted at appearing active before voting and leaving.
it doesnt look good by any means.
but i def don't view it as a maf chat miss post. if anything its lazy gameplay.
Sheep Villager
Feel free to call me Sheep
I'm gonna be real I feel too dumb for the Betsy Vs Tae thing. I thought the whole Got It thing was an obvious tinfoil...?
BetsySundrop
🧙♀️ 🧹
If you had read my early responses to this exact question, you would have the answer to this. And again, this post is inaccurate.
My earlier response was that in the last game we had inactive players, they were not replaced. It is extremely difficult on d3 when absent players have not shown up. Dan clarified that absent players would be replaced.
My sus on random was explained. Low (extremely) activity is not modkilled until later in the game, and more important (to me) is that weird got it post.
My sus on you was not based on early inactivity. That was the beginning sus. As time goes on, I see more sus and I explained those things.
If I wanted to vote the one who susses me hardest, I'd vote sidney, because sidney sussed me earlier at a time when she was being questioned. It would have been easy to push it, but as much as sidney susses me, it feels genuine, not just someone hopping on to create a wagon.
