Mafia TBT Mafia II: Mafia Strike Back [Game Over/Mafia Win]

[Princess]

Sign me up

 

[radical6]

YES YES ILL JOIN!!!!
unlewss im too late then aw

 

[Midoriya]

I found some posts to back-up my reason why I think AndyB should be mayor:

Spoiler

[QUOTEAndyB:]I don't see it as Kuma being anything but Townie. It's just how Kuma is.

We can all go on and say that we're innocent, saying otherwise is essentially a death wish. That's why I feel River now coming out in public is a means to say she's mafia. She's not in any danger from the mafia itself to be offed during the night. Yes, I may be pushing for River, but I don't see it any other way.
With this, I feel as if I'll be soon for the chop. With that, I'm asking any doctors, if any are left, out there to not protect me. Really think about who you're to protect. We can't risk having 2 going by means of a bomber.[/QUOTE]

Spoiler

[QUOTEAndyB:]We could look at people who haven't posted as much, but I'd rather look to those who vote in particular ways.
Now, Lynn has voted out of the blue a few times for whoever. But also, it seems that a few people follow a pattern in voting. For example, last voting round, Lynn and River both voted for Hikari. But also Gandalf and Fireninja did. River now being shown as mafia.. these few have shared votes often.
What say you?[/QUOTE]

Both times he got the town to lynch them and they were mafia, two nights in a row. Whenever voting starts I'm 100%sure I'm going to vote for AndyB for mayor now.

 

[Gandalf]

Like to think that getting River and Lynn out in the open voting Hikari was my doing. Andy is definitely a champ when it comes to identifying the mafias towards endgame though.

 

[Midoriya]

You were pretty good too Gandalf. I'll either vote Gandalf or AndyB for mayor.

 

[BlueLeaf]

We should be careful not to vote for a mafia member for election. That would be complicated and we would have to kill the bodyguards to lynch the mayor/sheriff.

 

[oath2order]

I hope it's not too late! I'd love to join round two!

- - - Post Merge - - -

Ah crap. Looks like it's already full from what I can tell, Trundle was #29.

 

[Midoriya]

I hope it's not too late! I'd love to join round two!

- - - Post Merge - - -

Ah crap. Looks like it's already full from what I can tell, Trundle was #29.

You can be on the replacement list along with everyone else past 30? Let's see what Karla says whenever they're online.

 

[radical6]

You can be on the replacement list along with everyone else past 30? Let's see what Karla says whenever they're online.

quick you all should get modkilled
but w/e my fault i was too late
please karla please

 

[oath2order]

brb crying

 

[iLoveYou]

Just keep in mind:

Those who got modkilled & for what reason.
Those who can't handle taking the heat from fingers being pointed.
Those who attract too much attention.
Those who do not attract enough attention & just lurk.

I think that's who we need to avoid voting for (mainly aimed at the new players getting used to everyone still), and giving those roles to. Obviously I'm including myself, where ever I fit in. We're looking for a well-balanced player to take on those two roles.

That kinda narrows it down, I guess, to our leading players from last round. AndyB & Gandalf are a good start. I'd like to throw in Justin's name (when / if he signs up? I'm pretty sure he will) as well .. he was definitely an MVP in the way he analyzed voting patterns. He was the one who practically showed us how to play, through his own posts. He gave us stuff to think about.

Spoiler: Specifically this post, started it all ..

Chances are I will be murdered tonight by the Mafia. If there's a second doctor, I'd appreciate the protection from you, but if not I'm probably a goner tomorrow.

Because of this, I might as well just lay out most of my further suspicions after Mary. There are 4 mafia remaining. Let's examine the voting list from yesterday.

First, here's the list of players who were voting for Mary at the time of lynch yesterday:



It's fairly safe to assume that the players near the top of this list are likely townies and should be considered mostly innocent. Not guaranteed as voting for your fellow mafia is always a valid strategy to appear innocent, but most would at least attempt to defend their fellow scum first before giving in and voting for them. So the top half of this list is probably fairly innocent.

That said, I'd also watch out for the last couple players on the list who resisted until nearly the end, likely to try to save face for themselves after seeing that Mary was clearly getting lynched no matter what they said. Notably Kuma and River in this case.

In particular with River, I would keep an eye on her for mafia tells. She was the last player to vote for Mary, after much contesting in the main thread. I think she threw in the vote at the end to try to save herself from future lynching. There was this post in particular that stood out to me.

http://www.belltreeforums.com/showt...afia-Night-2&p=1924710&viewfull=1#post1924710

It seemed like a desperate attempt to make people believe Mary was a Detective in the face of a couple of us starting to bring her up. River is an experienced and smart player, so I have a hard time believing that she didn't catch on herself to what I replied to her post with.

All this being said, it's nothing too concrete, so I wouldn't start voting her or anything yet. But perhaps keep an eye on her at least.

Next thing I want to look at is the correlation between Mary's votes, and others voting with her votes. Mafia on the more inexperienced side tend to vote together as a pack as it appears like a good strategy for voting townies off.

Here's a list of all the players who voted for ACE on Day 1 at some point with Mary, and also voted for myself (Justin) on Day 2 with Mary at some point:



Take away the players who voted for Mary (and Mary herself) in the end to her demise...



And you end up with the list of three players above!

After all of this, these four players are my top suspects for Mafia at this moment in the game, in no particular order:



These are by no means confirmed mafia or anything like that. But based off analysing vote patterns, and some posts, those 4 players seem the most suspicious at the moment to me. I think it's worth keeping them in the back of your head. And if you're a detective, I know there's still at least one of you out there (unless Karla royally ****ed over the town), you should consider inspecting one of them. Of course, don't reveal yourself completely unless absolutely necessary. Try to just subtly hint towards someone if you catch them as mafia in your inspection.

We'll see what happens tomorrow with the kill and anything else that comes up.

One extra special note, lynn105 is probably on the side of town:



I'm highly doubtful they would vote for their own teammate at the very start of the game like that. lynn105 is also a first time player, so I doubt that it was an intentional strategy.

Basically:

LEAVE LYNN ALONE!!!

(and iLoveYou)

Names to consider: AndyB, Gandalf, Justin ( if / when he signs up )

- - - - -

Also:

The host was actually considering capping the game at 35 instead of 30. So anyone who didn't make it in yet, should come back as this will most likely be the case, since there's so much interest.

 

[Midoriya]

Just keep in mind:

Those who got modkilled & for what reason.
Those who can't handle taking the heat from fingers being pointed.
Those who attract too much attention.
Those who do not attract enough attention & just lurk.

I think that's who we need to avoid voting for (mainly aimed at the new players getting used to everyone still), and giving those roles to. Obviously I'm including myself, where ever I fit in. We're looking for a well-balanced player to take on those two roles.

That kinda narrows it down, I guess, to our leading players from last round. AndyB & Gandalf are a good start. I'd like to throw in Justin's name (when / if he signs up? I'm pretty sure he will) as well .. he was definitely an MVP in the way he analyzed voting patterns. He was the one who practically showed us how to play, through his own posts. He gave us stuff to think about.

Karla said they've reserved a spot for Justin a couple pages ago. Justin, Gandalf, and AndyB are some good candidates.

 

[BlueLeaf]

Pre-game planning, all right. How should we handle bandwagons? I say we should keep an eye on the person who started it.

 

[iLoveYou]

Pre-game planning, all right. How should we handle bandwagons? I say we should keep an eye on the person who started it.

Problem with that, is when innocent people like Justin (who was a townie) start the bandwagons and sacrifice themselves to a night kill by mafia (making themselves a big target). :{ I think analyzing the entire scenario works best.

- Who started it ( do they have good reasoning, within their post, to believe the target is mafia or not )
- Who voted ( with reason, without reason )
- When they voted ( played a huge part in our last game - mafia jumped on bandwagons last & got called out )
- Who voted for who ( after the lynching is over & the role is revealed - go back and see who voted them out, if Town player got lynched )

 

[Kenshingumi]

hmm... idk lol

 

[oath2order]

I really don't think we should let old paranoias about previous players take hold too much >.>

 

[iLoveYou]

I really don't think we should let old paranoias about previous players take hold too much >.>

I just think it's a good place to start and build off of, for future references. {: You're right though.

 

[oath2order]

I just think it's a good place to start and build off of, for future references. {: You're right though.

Oh, no, I totally get that, and it's a good method, but I just hope people don't go overboard and start doing too deep an analysis into innocent people's posts because they were mafia last time.

 

[Farobi]

Do the newbies outnumber the old players?

 

[Kenshingumi]

yep, i hope thats not what happens