Alright so I got super distracted by the fishing tournament, but I still wanna post my thoughts before night ends-
My strong townreads are still there,
Punchy and Trundle definitely have the posts I like the best, and Trundle basically shares all of my reads. I feel like if they were mafia they wouldn't have this "cautious" idea about how similar our reads are. Not to mention all of d1.
Punchy on the other hand has some of the best posts in the game, and sure, they have some of the worst too, but I'm still fairly confident that they're town. I do disagree with their reads, but I'll come back to that.
F11 and Mogyay are also strong townreads, they both have probably the best tone in my opinion, and I interacted with them d1.
I outted a townread on Panda before, but their presence feels really muted through d1, and Panda's eod vote on Harbour wasn't great. It's not really so much that I scumread them, but I think I gave them too much credit for my perceived PR soft.
I actually believe that harbour is one of my stronger townreads here - looking at the vote patterns towards end of day, I find it really hard to believe the push on Harbour wasn't by mafia, not to mention when a lot of the people jumped to heyden, then shae, the votes ended up pretty split up.
I'm not willing to say harbour is completely town but I don't think they should have been lynched/fos'd as much as they were given the circumstances.
So, we reach a point in the game where I townread 4 people, 5 people and there are 16 alive, and out of the 11 I have 1? strong scumread.
So out of 10 people I have to parse 3 mafia. Of my strongest reads, 3 town were voting Geo, and 2 were voting Shae.
So looking at the remaining vote patterns...
Let's call it
3 town 3 ? on Geo
2 town? on Heyden + 1 mafia
2 town 1 ? on Shae
3 ? on Punchy
2 ? on harbour.
In my honest opinion, when I look at the reads list like this, I'm a lot more comfortable with how it looks. Of the people voting my strong townreads, all of them are undefined in my opinion. So I think two cases are interesting here.
One - how does a mafia vote when a lynch is forced.
Two - what would the mafia's goal be if town is getting lynched.
So here's where I think things get interesting.
I believe that there was definitely a mafia or two on the Geoni lynch, if it's two, it's most likely to be oath/dino.
I have marked Tae as a mafia already, so if we're assuming it's four mafia, then I'd say that the likely fourth mafia would be Heyden.
I know I said what I said about unclears voting punchy/harbour, but the heyden read is the one that I think makes the most sense to me.
During EOD panic, I assumed that Tae's push onto Heyden was an attempt to get town lynched with Geoni, but if you look back on it, Tae didn't VOTE anyone besides me until Geoni voted Heyden. All it takes is assuming that the Geoni lynch is garunteed to happen (first to hit 6, and it would require 2-3 voters since Heyden was originally at 4. No one who originally scumread Tae would flip.) So if you take a step back, you can see that the buss is 0 risk deflection. It really seems like Tae has been on Heyden for basically no reason all game, so assuming they're mafia together makes the most sense.
As I type this post, I realize that saying that there's mafia in the Geoni lynch feels... wrong. Let's say I take the assumption that Tae is mafia with Heyden, and roll with it. The safest option is actually if the Geoni lynch is entirely town, because it leaves mafia with the ability to switch their lynch IF something happens.
I do feel the need to talk about the elephant in the room, Shea. I don't... really feel like Shea has done anything inherently scummy this game. Like, as much as you guys keep quoting their quotes and keep saying that "this is mafia, or that is mafia" taking this game in from the perspective that Shea is a noob, I don't inherently think they've done ANYTHING wrong. Except one post -
They scumread punchy for something that they townread harbour for.
But... I don't really believe harbour is mafia.
If I'm going to be completely honest, Shea + harbour would probably be a valid mafia team, except for the fact that I don't really scumread either of them.
The more I write this analysis, the less confident I am about it, but my townreads are the strongest reads I have in this game -
I have a couple of ideas on what to do, but I would treat this post with a grain of salt. I think looking at the vote analysis from this point of view is probably the best way to look at the game, especially if one or two more people die who are in my ? pile. I think a mafia dying would be a huge swing on how to read the game, so, let's lynch a mafia for once :')
