If we go with NL, there's a good chance we'll be stuck in a D1 type situation.
Ok, but that's the WORST case, and in THAT case we DON'T LOSE ANTHING.
We aren't... losing a lynch??
I'm gonna be honest. I don't play games on this site, but I have no reason to believe that the mafia should be anything out of the ordinary.
I'd expect 4-5 mafia with 3-4 weak prs. Potentially even downsides. It doesn't really make sense for it to be 2 mafia with 2 kills. And even if that were the case.
We can do the same numbers with 3 a day.
20 - 17 - 14 - 11 - 8 - 5
OR
19 - 16 - 13 - 10 - 7
So if there's 3 mafia, no lynching matters.
If there's 4 mafia, no lynching and lynching are the same.
If there's 5 mafia,lynching is correct.
if there's 2 mafia, lynching is correct.
So I guess if you believe mafia GETS 2 kills a night, which probably justifies a team of 2/3. Presumably something with precedence. Lynching becomes a gamble.
I think a more reasonable assumption is something along the lines of "5 mafia, with a dayvig" but even that seems way too powerful.