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uggh I feel ****ty about that mislynch. I do hate shawo's being so damn sanctimonious over this, their smugness on "did you solve the game now that Jacob is dead"
No that's not the point, the point was we would learn a lot more from a mislynch on D1 with not much to lose at this stage than a NL. A NL would tell us basically nothing. Idc whatever rationale you use from Epicmafia (which I have also played and to your credit, I get the potential benefit of a NL there), this is practically almost a different game entirely where NLs D1 rarely tell you anything (except if a maf casts a tying vote to NL to prevent a lynch of their teammate or something, which I was actually afraid could potentially happen this vote given margins)
Now that I have time I need to digest things better. And while I don't like shawo's smug attitude, they do somewhat deserve the right to be given that they were right on their read, so whatever. Just stop belittling me if you could please
I will say that I am willing to give town points to shawo for their defense of Jacob in the midst of much countervailing opinion...though they also could have been really sure Jacob was town, because they knew for sure since they were MAF...idk. Could've been a gambit to gain town cred but rn I def think they look better now after that flip.
True but they can in late, posted a few messages, and cast their vote on someone who wasn't even gonna be lynched. Everyone who voted for someone else was more active than those 2.
The other 4 are people who barely posted but still voted and I'm referring to the end of the game for posting.
If there are 4 mafias then it's a 2/3 probability.
True but they can in late, posted a few messages, and cast their vote on someone who wasn't even gonna be lynched. Everyone who voted for someone else was more active than those 2.
The other 4 are people who barely posted but still voted and I'm referring to the end of the game for posting.
If there are 4 mafias then it's a 2/3 probability.
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Anyways, if I'm voted off tonight then it has to be trundle. Him being salty can be motivation for me being voted off.
Ok I can see what you're saying, maybe they did that to either hopefully start a CFD or because they didn't want to be incriminated voting against a townie. Either way is a win-win for them if one or both were scum.
I need to take some time to reread everything and see if what you say is actually a fair assessment because right now it sounds reasonable to sus them a bit if that is indeed what happened.
Also, if you die tonight, that could be mafia framing trundle, so don't be so sure on that
Ok I can see what you're saying, maybe they did that to either hopefully start a CFD or because they didn't want to be incriminated voting against a townie. Either way is a win-win for them if one or both were scum.
I need to take some time to reread everything and see if what you say is actually a fair assessment because right now it sounds reasonable to sus them a bit if that is indeed what happened.
Also, if you die tonight, that could be mafia framing trundle, so don't be so sure on that
K I know I shouldn’t do this before I fully read things but I have comments on two players from the few posts I’ve seen so far, trundle and shawo
I really like what tae and mogyay had to say on Trundle in 407 and 408. Trundle was already incredibly self aware early D1 and became jarringly different towards the latter half of D1. I don’t know what to make of it except for two options
EITHER he’s a townie genuinely trying to be better
OR he’s a scum getting yelled at in scumchat for playing badly and is trying to step up his game under duress.
But what trips me up is a point Emolga brought up in 441 – I doubt scum trundle would seek to become a controversial figure this early on given his game history. And yet it seems to happen most games regardless.
I am tempted to go back and read scum trundle games – I love the smell of fresh meta mining in the morning. For now, however, I am going to say I remain suspicious of Trundle. He was the first to vote Jacob after all and the panicked end day vote ended up 7-6 Jacob/Trundle. How awfully convenient. (Yes I realize this kinda implicates me because I joined the Jacob train but I don’t care)
Shawo – if you don’t know by now, their posting style irritates me and they probably know it and are exploiting that fact for ****s and giggles. Whatever – I don’t think it’s truly malicious and I am pretty sure it’s not AI. Their behavior at the end of D1 I am def willing to give a decent bit of towncred for at the moment. Even though I disagree with their motion for a day 1 NL, it makes sense given they seemingly are mostly experienced in epicmafia, where NLs are a lot more common and useful. Furthermore they were trying to support that view with calculations involving potential mafia KP. So I can forgive the move to NL a bit too. I will try to not let them get under my skin but it’ll be hard if they keep this up
ON THE FLIPSIDE, they also apparently claimed a weak PR, which is *really* strange to me given they had absolutely no reason to, since they weren’t in any sort of position to be lynched. Tbh this screams of an early game maf gambit to try and gain cred. They’ll claim a “weak” PR so maf supposedly wouldn’t waste a shot on them, which would explain their continued living, and also make town afraid to lynch them cuz they don’t want to lose a PR, even if it’s “weak.” If shawo really is a PR of any kind, I see no universe in which it was a good idea for them to claim when they did. Having said that, this claim probably resulted from circumstances I haven't read yet, and if so, then I give permission for shawo to yell at me and explain what led to it.
Overall, though their EoD behavior weighs heavier in my mind than their early day behavior, which was seemingly borne out of a valid desire to help, but in my view was wrong way of trying to go about this vote.
Here’s another way of thinking about shawo: Why stick out like a sore thumb in *two* instances on the first day: on leading a one man charge in favor of NL, *and* sticking up for/defending Jacob? Being super contrarian is not something I’d think early scum would do in my book, but we also have to keep that possibility and their PR claim in mind too. Overall, in balance, I’d rate shawo a very mild townread
The last hour votes game from Evan, me, geoni, mog, trundle, shawo, f11, jacob, oath, harbour, panda, heyden, punchy, glow. These are a lot of late votes.
My vote was panic. I'm mad that i panic voted in the last 30 min, but I thought Jacob was sus and he gave a poor defense, so I probably would've pushed him D2 if Trundle had died. I don't think we should've lynched panda or oath last minute bc that's not enough time to let them respond to suses, so i would have been fine with jacob or trundle (i just thought last minute that it was more likely jacob). I only regret that jacob died bc he was town but not bc he was a contributing/helpful player. i don't think we lost much except a town number (though this is important i admit)
glow popped in and said she was busy that day, ok i can get that. but she even stated that she could not read the whole game yet tried to lead a last hour wagon against oath for lack of presence??
i think glow also lacks presence like oath so i don't think this was a valid wagon. for someone who didn't caught up with the game they were very adamant about lynching oath despite not saying anything about him beforehand. she also didn't see the sus about jacob despite not seeing his EoD reaction to the lynch
trundle was the first to vote jacob but then switched to oath out of nowhere when glow voted oath. I don't really get this. Yea he switched to Jacob last minute but self preservation makes sense in either alignment
f11 voted for jacob but they were pretty vocal about it from the beginning and stayed true to their reads
mog was vocally very hesitant about the vote and I feel like as scum she would've been more quiet, voted and engage with the panic. She did keep mentioning that Trundle was strangely quite during the time which i appreciate that she didn't want us to complete forget trundle
punchy and heyden wanted to lynch panda and while i get the sus I don't think they left enough time for her to explain themselves and they didn't really say much for her to respond to the wagon in all the confusion. Heyden chimed in super weirdly while Punchy was present for a while. I think Punchy's post quality has gone up but i still disagree with a lot of what he says (i still don't get his initial read on me). I think heyden contributed to part of the panic while Punchy was just there for it and panicked too, but was at least consistent.
shawo was hardcore NL for quite a while and I see this as more town since I think scum would've given up the idea of a NL once they saw that only jacob kinda supported it. I don't exactly get their vote on trundle though since they say they townread them earlier but I think they TRd both trundle and jacob and decided to just pick a wagon. Shawo did have a heated altercation with Antonio both I think its both emotional though that firmly believe they're right. I get what Shawo is saying about the numbers which makes it clear to me that they're used to a different mindset which doesn't really work on TBT. I think if we agreed to a NL it would've been much more quiet and players would be less pressured to react
oath voted heyden but lacked conviction so it feels like an empty vote. panda and harbour are on the same boat. But i think panda failed to really make any hard stances this whole game and made small comments during the EoD, not a fan of this. Harbour I think was more dedicated for their sus and didn't really give into the EoD havoc so that's a plus for me
i get geoni's vote but I don't think its AI. Still scum read him tbh since he still reads off as non confrontational despite having read the whole, but I'll have to rethink this read later. Ik he thought jacob and mog could've been scum together but he didn't really push the wagon (whether it was jacob or someone else) which I would've expected from a strong player
also what happened to shae they voted and never explained why...
Having been the first to reach [1] vote, Trundle is currently set to be lynched.
You have roughly 8 hours left to lynch someone, day ends at 8:00 PM CST. Whoever has the most votes at the end of the day is Lynched. Majority to immediately lynch is 11. Please remember that voting is mandatory.
Trundle was pushing Jacob first here although I think points against Jacob had been brought up from earlier on. Dan was of course pushing Trundle for many reasons that have been hashed over and my vote was part pressure and partially because I needed more posts from Jacob for him to feel worse from Heyden. Too wagons did start here though.
Currently at [3] votes, Trundle is currently set to be lynched.
You have roughly 4 hours left to lynch someone, day ends at 8:00 PM CST. Whoever has the most votes at the end of the day is Lynched. Majority to immediately lynch is 11. Please remember that voting is mandatory.
Noting that Antonio was very quick to vote soon after he joined and stuck with it, seemed to get in a tunnely back and forth with Trundle that is characteristic of how Antonio gets as town.
DinoTown gave her reasoning in #405 in that she simply was rubbed the wrong way by too many Trundle posts and thought Trundle wasn't truly looking at the players enough which feels like, especially in the wording, a take she came to on her own. No Trundle flip to help but feels mildly towny.
Trundle [5]: Damniel, Antonio, DinoTown, Locket, Emolga59 Jacob [3]: Trundle, f11, tae Heyden [1]: Geoni amazonevan19 [0]: Jacob Not Voting [11]: Oath2Order, PunchyDaHufflepuff, amazonevan19, PandaDarling, Sheabae, glow, Shawo, Mogyay, Heyden, Harbour, Jacob
Currently at [5] votes, Trundle is currently set to be lynched.
You have roughly 2.5 hours left to lynch someone, day ends at 8:00 PM CST. Whoever has the most votes at the end of the day is Lynched. Majority to immediately lynch is 11. Please remember that voting is mandatory.
Jacob wagon begins to gain traction here when f11 and tae vote him. f11 was one of the first people to call out Jacob as seeming sus so she wasn't just hopping on that because Trundle started it but my only pause here will come with Trundle turning out to be scum because it happened in the time between the last votecount when Trundle was gaining multiple votes and this votecount where Jacob is becoming a wagon. Tae seemed to have gut feelings about Trundle being town through all his messiness and disliked Jacob's AtE and general posting. A little more sudden of a vote than f11 but I'm not necessarily back to scumreading them for it just yet. I don't think all three of them are on the same team because tae and f11 had a minor spit about PR sniffing.
As for Locket and Emolga...
Locket stated her sus of Trundle not long after that first votecount but it was repeated agreement that the readslist was strange and the only other take was that weird one on Punchy. I'm conflicted because it feels like she is operating on her own here so I don't want to hard categorize this as scummy voting but it was still when the wagon was accumulating and it was safer to pile on so I'm not bringing it out of question. I can still see enough scum equity it.
Emolga is definitely a less prominent voice in d1 and so I immediately have to question the joining of a fastly accumulating wagon of someone I still townread. When I ISO Emolga though they air their first suspicion on Trundle an hour before the first votecount. It comes a bit unexplained at first. Random aside I like #441.
That being said @Emolga59 why did you vote Trundle following posts where you said you wanted more conversation on other people with votes and not just Trundle? And then disappear until 25 minutes left before EoD? That's suspicious movement imo.
Trundle [6]: Damniel, Antonio, DinoTown, Locket, Emolga59, Sheabae Jacob [3]: Trundle, f11, tae Heyden [1]: Geoni Damniel [1]: PunchyDaHufflepuff amazonevan19 [0]: Jacob Not Voting [9]: Oath2Order, amazonevan19, PandaDarling, glow, Shawo, Mogyay, Heyden, Harbour, Jacob
Currently at [6] votes, Trundle is currently set to be lynched.
You have roughly 1 hour left to lynch someone, day ends at 8:00 PM CST. Whoever has the most votes at the end of the day is Lynched. Majority to immediately lynch is 11. Please remember that voting is mandatory.
Oddly enough there are only two new votes between last votecount (4hrs left) and this votecount (1 hr left). Shaebae and Punchy.
Shaebae's last post has Trundle as a suspect and then they disappear for hours, come back to vote Trundle a few hours before EoD, and disappear again. While I'm not the biggest fan of this at least Shae didn't return to hover over EoD, doesn't feel super teamed unless the scum team felt they had things handled and we're confident they wouldn't need Shea around at EoD.
Punchy was snapvoting Dan because Dan was seeming willing to jump onto any candidate? Eh. Still, it doesn't feel uncharacteristic of Punchy and he mentioned wanting to CFD someone and is coming from a culture where moments like this happen.
Currently at [6] votes, Jacob is currently set to be lynched.
You have roughly 15 minutes left to lynch someone, day ends at 8:00 PM CST. Whoever has the most votes at the end of the day is Lynched. Majority to immediately lynch is 11. Please remember that voting is mandatory.
New votes in the 45 minutes prior to the final 15 minutes:
Amazon, Dan, and myself moved onto Jacob
Oath voted for Heyden
Panda voted for Harbour
When it comes to Amazon I don't find it Omgusy I just think because he said he felt the pushes against Jacob felt orchestrated before he left I have a hard time reading that progression onto voting him without a ton of deep analysis about it 30 minutes before EoD. Not really sus unless Trundle is scum and work is work but I don't feel super comfortable with it necessarily. Still a bit of a townread for everything else and if he's wolfing he's in DEEP.
Dan felt organic enough in his Jacob vote because he'd been scumreading him for a while and Jacob's posting near EoD looked bad and still provided little substance. He was intense about Trundle for a while and I think EoD got to him and he didn't want to feel stagnant but that's me reading into him more than what he says slid that scale. Still tr him for the win condition wording stuff though and seeming like he doesn't have TMI.
I felt like I didn't care for Jacob's posting throughout the day, lacking substance, Heyden wasn't taking off, and I preferred Jacob over Trundle.
Why Oath didn't join me in Heyden when I was on him until an hour left is pretty questionable honestly especially since I was in part basing my sus on a conversation he had with Heyden that he found disagreeable. I said before that even though Oath is hard to read most d1 because his meta is not making many reads, this is what I meant when I said Oath shows his true colors via his actions. I'm not completely there on a scumread but this type of voting and EoD felt like someone who wasn't caring about working with town nor trying to lunch and solve his suspect when he could have yet keeping his vote there during what I feel was town vs town top wagons.
Panda is in a similar boat of having the type of uncommitted vote that avoids being on a townflip, something that members of a scum team do now and then in situations when town has done the mislynching work for them and her reads had been on new players and then Trundle (with the 'the town' shade)? It doesn't sit entirely right with me. Panda, you had a spit with f11 but never followed up on it. You said you were fine with a Trundle or Harbour lunch and stayed on the choice that didn't have the chance of getting lynched at that point when your other choice was a top wagon. You don't seem like you care about gaining new information, maybe because you're already informed. Why shouldn't people scumread you for these things? Especially when you stoked the flames if Trundle's wagon with that random 'the town' crap and then let town keep building that wagon and avoiding taking part. Unless Trundle is scum, you have been howling.
Since I'm scumreading Panda at this point the Punchy and Heyden votes are fine with me although I might revisit if Panda turns out to be town. Even then it's a CFD that could have been and I wish I had the gusto to abandon Jacob for Panda.
Harbour and Glow's votes are off wagon and I've seen glow be off wagon before but like...glow I feel like you would have benefitted from having been more frequent than you were D1, I'm not entirely trustworthy of you but iirc you don't really care about the optics of guilt for being on a wrong wagon so it doesn't feel like it come from a place of hiding off wagon.
Harbour had his eyes on shawo/punchy before leaving and returned with two hours left. He said if shawo didn't appear until EoD he would vote him and that Punchy was all over the place. So he seems to have gone with Punchy based on how things turned out. Feels disconnected from the thread and I wanna know why he's not like... working with the people he townreads much.
Shawo made a rebel vote? My thing with shawo is that if he wanted a NL he could have voted that to see if it was possible.
And whew, that was a lot.
Tl;Dr - Panda, Oath, Emolga, and to a smaller extent sheabae and Evan had questionable voting patterns. Harbour's idk how to feel about. I'd set my sight on those first three though, I feel confident you will hit scum in one of them.
i'm going to just go ahead and place my vote just now then, i don't think me voting for anyone else is particularly smart as i'm pretty sure it's trundle vs jacob for now, i'm not really confident on either, i'm never rly confident day 1 i'm sry, at least jacob is here though, i feel like if trundle was town he'd have shown by now to fight his case SO I DON'T RLY KNOW WHAT TO DO lol
Forgot to talk about mogyay's vote and it's technically the nail in his coffin but eh, it felt panicky and she voted for Jacob because of this post I think. I won't revisit my big brain pairing even though I could here lol. But it's a good acting job if Mog was scum when there was the chance to vote in a less spotlighting way we're she scum that I think she would do before making a vote like this. Towny vote movement.
Writing that post sapped my energy and I want to interact live with people before I dig back in tonight. What do people think about my vote analysis and the people who came out looking suspicious from it?
Don't wait on others @Locket, what is that information and do you think about it?
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@Antonio and @Trundle I feel like you are getting tunneled into each other in an unproductive way and I think you are both town, regardless of how you feel about me. So I suggest you find who your townies are and work with them on finding common ground rather than spending your energy on each other because when scum is engineering mislynches you become easier to take advantage of when it comes to them feeling secure you'll vote for one another (or at least you voting Trundle, Antonio). And it's also going to just drain your energy over time. Feeling secure that yall are both town.
I think after all this my town reads on antonio and harbour have strengthened but i have to rethink my scumreads but heyden and glow’s interaction give off a weird buddy buddy vibe
Are you echoing shawo's sentiment that the Jacob vote increase was mafia led? If so, why? I can't tell what you have read when you don't really dig deeper into something I feel is a wrong assumption. Especially when you have a few players saying they want to focus on the Jacob voters.
When someone flips a lot of people flip. Especially in crunch time. This is a pretty regular effect.
So anyways now that the lynch has happened. Anyone solved the game now that jacob is dead?
Now we know 100% he's town.
I think what's more interesting was the flip that was effectively damniel/geoni. I don't think both are mafia, but I definitely have a feeling 1 probably is. I think the easy assumption is that trundle is mafia but that feels wrong. Which would put the incentive for a mafia lead flip as any number of things really.
I'm fairly certain the way evan played in crunch was probably the scummiest thing anyone could have done. I'm going to reread the whole fricken forum though, and sort out everyones reads and probably post that.
You can tell how people think based on how well their reads hold up usually. So if someone is willing to go from 1-100 for relatively no reason, it means that they weren't serious about their read in the first place.
His vote ninja'd mine at the exact same time so I think that's where you are getting that from but idk where your train of thought is even going here unless you actually scumread Trundle and think one of us is partnered with him and were trying to save him. Which is a wrong conclusion, as easy as it is to make when it comes to me since I have defended Trundle. Waste of time if you go down that path but you don't trust me but this kind of hard aligning is easy fodder for mafia to make use of.
