I actually like your post a lot! But... I feel like it doesn't really accurately represent a few things that happened. I was going to say that you didn't compare voting patterns to what people were saying... but you did do that. So I guess where I'm going with this is that I actually draw a different set of conclusions from the same information.
I guess the main reason is because you completely misrepresented my vote, but I guess that's not the point.
What's a lot more interesting is voting patterns based on a series of assumptions. You go ahead and assume that if panda is mafia that means punchy/hayden have an ok vote. But let's talk about the elephant in the room.
Jacob flipped town, you were one of 7 people who voted Jacob. Do you believe every person who voted him is town? What about damniel for flipping. What do you think if Trundle is town.
All you did was talk about vote patterns WITHOUT talking about the death.
In a lot of your posts you mention a lot of "If trundle is scum." Do you think that panda is 100% town if trundle is scum? What about amazon? I really feel like your analysis was a lot of effort that was directed the wrong way.
If... I'm going to be completely honest. The two people with the strangest voting patterns are YOU and DAMNIEL.
His vote ninja'd mine at the exact same time so I think that's where you are getting that from but idk where your train of thought is even going here unless you actually scumread Trundle and think one of us is partnered with him and were trying to save him. Which is a wrong conclusion, as easy as it is to make when it comes to me since I have defended Trundle. Waste of time if you go down that path but you don't trust me but this kind of hard aligning is easy fodder for mafia to make use of.
True but they can in late, posted a few messages, and cast their vote on someone who wasn't even gonna be lynched. Everyone who voted for someone else was more active than those 2.
The other 4 are people who barely posted but still voted and I'm referring to the end of the game for posting.
If there are 4 mafias then it's a 2/3 probability.
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Anyways, if I'm voted off tonight then it has to be trundle. Him being salty can be motivation for me being voted off.
@Antonio and @Trundle I feel like you are getting tunneled into each other in an unproductive way and I think you are both town, regardless of how you feel about me. So I suggest you find who your townies are and work with them on finding common ground rather than spending your energy on each other because when scum is engineering mislynches you become easier to take advantage of when it comes to them feeling secure you'll vote for one another (or at least you voting Trundle, Antonio). And it's also going to just drain your energy over time. Feeling secure that yall are both town.
Geo's post i think is a pretty substantial inspection of the voting which i quite like actually as it shares a few similairieis to my vote post above his. I specially think its fair to call out Emogla's passiveness and Locket's vagueness
basically what f11 said actually. though i now realize that Heyden didn't actually vote for oath at any point when I swore he did but I think its cuz he was vocal about considering oath. In any case its very off that both of them were largely absent today but suddenly showed up to spark the panic imo
he's thought trundle is town for a while. I was initially confused on whether he thought trundle was town or scum but its more clear he's been TRing him. He also commented that Jacob wasn't giving a strong defense and the lynch wasn't unexpected
I'm going to go ahead and make a list of what I remember from d1, from most to least town, post that, then start working on fleshing out my reads. That way I can have a comparitive before and after. If you want to ask me anything please do but I'll probably have much different reads on a reread.
Also, functionally, a lot of the things I remember were from the 1 hour of crunchtime. I was active through all of it so I saw a lot of good and bad from a lot of different users.
I thought both mogyay and t11 had the most genuine reaction to me spitballing a completely new idea. While a lot of you guys go out and say "well clearly shawo doing X means that he must be town, I'd say that both mogyay and t11 (and even panda?) interacted with it in a way that I really liked!
The problem I have with Trundle is I read very, very few things he said. But to me it seemed like voting patterns were the reason why he's town. I'd probably still say that he's town for similar voting patterns/reasons... but... I still voted him over joshua.
Punchy! I will admit punchy has some WEIRD lines, however some things Punchy said felt like they were the only person who really understood what was happening. Or at least, saw it similarily to me.
Tae is strange, I have a good impression of them but I don't remember what they said.
Locket and damniel are at the end for similar reasons. I think they've interacted with me really well, but I find that the things they've said don't really hold up. Currently I have locket as a very hard null, mostly becuase I can't really tell what's going on.
So before I go into my read on damniel.
The bad:
Damniel/Geoni/Glow/Heyden/Harbour/Evan.
This isn't to say I scumread the people on this list, but this is just the things that pop out at me.
Damniel has to be in first because I genuinely can't understand his game. I felt like he had too many reads too early, yet was willing to tunnel trundle. (Sure). But then after that he flipped off for... what I can tell, no reason. Even when he vocalized the reasons I found a lot of them to be either completely insignificant or untrue.
Geoni I have as a bad for two reasons. The main one being, I remember when he came back during crunch, he spent all of 20 minutes rereading, commeting about each page, barely interacted with my posts, and then said something similar to. "Why are you talking about numbers during crunch." Even though he wasn't interacting at all? It seemed like a really contrived way to bring attention to something that did not affect reads at all, probably to set up a push. Also vote timing was bad/unfortunate.
Glow/Heyden had the worst timed push onto panda. The absolute worst thing you can do as town there is chainsaw onto someone you don't have a read on. Which I would argue both of them did.
Harbour seems really off to me. I really wish I could explain it more than "their reads don't make sense to me." They clearly read the game, so I'm wondering why they called me scummy there.
Lastly Evan.
Everyones guilty of making panic reads at the end. I do mean everyone. How they were vocalized and weren't are a different matter. Evan seemed to go really, really deep on pushing me for what is basically no reason. Taking what I said out of context and using it as an incredibly strong push, then pushing on everything I was doing, at what? the last 5-10 minutes of the day? Barely reading anything I said?
Yeah, evan did back off. But still, picking out a single line I said and calling me smug, then when I call you out on it, you say that my attitudes bad?
It doesn't feel like you're trying to read me, it feels like you made a bad read on someone you thought was an easy push, and tried to get out of it afterwards.
This is why I believe Evan is mafia even if purely on their end of day.
I don't have a good reason to understand why someone would play like that as town, and Evan. If you have a good reason for that, feel free to explain.
A lot... of the things that happened I feel like have explanations. I'm not going to say that Damniel and Geoni have to have mafia because of X and Y. But they PROBABLY do.
I also forgot antonio but I'll get to him later, he's more null right now than not.
Geo's post i think is a pretty substantial inspection of the voting which i quite like actually as it shares a few similairieis to my vote post above his. I specially think its fair to call out Emogla's passiveness and Locket's vagueness
basically what f11 said actually. though i now realize that Heyden didn't actually vote for oath at any point when I swore he did but I think its cuz he was vocal about considering oath. In any case its very off that both of them were largely absent today but suddenly showed up to spark the panic imo
he's thought trundle is town for a while. I was initially confused on whether he thought trundle was town or scum but its more clear he's been TRing him. He also commented that Jacob wasn't giving a strong defense and the lynch wasn't unexpected
If you go ahead and read his last post, he makes a lot of assumptions that lead with "If trundle is mafia"
So in essence I was asking him to give a more proper set of reads under his current read of trundle. His post is really messy and I feel like it doesn't explain as much as I would have liked from such a high effort post.
iirc, she had a reaction to antonio calling me cop that felt like a pr claim. Feel free to not agree, but I wasn't willing to lynch someone who had a post that screamed pr. That was absolutely a panic moment for me.
But uh. You didn't read all of panda's posts did you?
I will say that I am willing to give town points to shawo for their defense of Jacob in the midst of much countervailing opinion...though they also could have been really sure Jacob was town, because they knew for sure since they were MAF...idk. Could've been a gambit to gain town cred but rn I def think they look better now after that flip.
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your attitude isn't helping anybody. Cut the rudeness and actually try to help us win
I'm not sure I want to give much AI to it. Some of the most analytical players in the game (you Dan and myself) all felt Jacob wasn't coming across towny and so it could be TMI, however shawo showed he can be pretty solid at getting certain reads right in the past game so his fresh perspective may have genuinely been correct. Could go either way in other words.
I'm not a huge fan of his post lynch reads more recently but his EoD felt very genuine. Very very light town at the moment.
I still TR Trundle. Obviously EOD was between Jacob/Trundle, a town vs town IMO, hence scum was safe from a lynch anyway and it didn't matter who was going.
ironic shawo tells me that i haven't read the game when i was like 30 pages in before stopping. there's only 10 that i was missing before EOD. and you have OPENLY admitted to not reading the majority of early game lol. you can have reads without reading every single post.
anyway i'm really annoyed and i feel like i'm just going to be antagonistic to everyone that says something about me voting mafia instead of town. i voted OATH not panda by the way so are u sure u ~read~ shawo?
I actually like your post a lot! But... I feel like it doesn't really accurately represent a few things that happened. I was going to say that you didn't compare voting patterns to what people were saying... but you did do that. So I guess where I'm going with this is that I actually draw a different set of conclusions from the same information.
I guess the main reason is because you completely misrepresented my vote, but I guess that's not the point.
What's a lot more interesting is voting patterns based on a series of assumptions. You go ahead and assume that if panda is mafia that means punchy/hayden have an ok vote. But let's talk about the elephant in the room.
Jacob flipped town, you were one of 7 people who voted Jacob. Do you believe every person who voted him is town? What about damniel for flipping. What do you think if Trundle is town.
All you did was talk about vote patterns WITHOUT talking about the death.
In a lot of your posts you mention a lot of "If trundle is scum." Do you think that panda is 100% town if trundle is scum? What about amazon? I really feel like your analysis was a lot of effort that was directed the wrong way.
If... I'm going to be completely honest. The two people with the strangest voting patterns are YOU and DAMNIEL.
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So are you trying to imply that the only scenario in which you or damniel is mafia is one where trundle is also mafia?
Are you saying that I'm not talking about Jacob having flipped town when you say I don't talk about the death? I clearly talk about him being a townflip. I'm guessing you're not happy that I'm not scumreading most of the people who voted Jacob. If any voting pattern kinda looks rough it's Evan but it's not going to discount that he's been trying to solve the game and it could have come from a place of compromise which...tends to be a towntell. It's just rough because it does involve an irl excuse for a sudden return at EoD.
I would expect you to understand that mafia is a game you play based on assumptions drawn from the information you have along with mechanical clearance once you have that. And I am making assumptions that Trundle is town because that's been an accumulated read for a while now and 'unless Trundle is mafia' will come up when he's the unclipped top wagon. If you scumread Trundle of course we're going to have different conclusions.
The stuff regarding Panda? You're townreading her because you think she softed a PR? I didn't see it if so but that's a silly distraction from how bad her voting and play in general looks and I'm not even sure why you're bringing that up during the night phase if you caught it. I'll look and see but yes the people who voted Panda do look better because they voted Panda, even if Heyden was my first vote.
Harbour seems really off to me. I really wish I could explain it more than "their reads don't make sense to me." They clearly read the game, so I'm wondering why they called me scummy there.
I felt like he had too many reads too early, yet was willing to tunnel trundle. (Sure). But then after that he flipped off for... what I can tell, no reason. Even when he vocalized the reasons I found a lot of them to be either completely insignificant or untrue.
i still don't really get why my reads were a problem. yea i had a lot of town reads but i want to narrow a list of people I didn't want to see lynched/thought posted good content. i stated my sus of jacob many times so idk what to say anymore. I did have reasons you just don't agree with them which is fine since he did actually flip town
Oh yeah, I also interacted with
locket, who interacted with me but in a way that felt really shallow. They're probably the person closest to null that I've read in the game
but the panda wagon happened within the last half hour on day. why didn't they start the wagon and push her earlier? I think a lot of people have called her out for her passiveness but those who voted her didn't vote until the panic kicked in
Yes. Jarring as you'll find that. I'm probably wrong about at least one (or not idk) but my vote analysis in combination with overall reads keep them all as minor townleans in the least.
What I'm saying is that you denied one of my posts outright without having all the information. I've never outright said "That never happened" unless it was about my own posts. Unlike when you said it to me?
Sorry, I was convoluting two things.
Basically my impression of Locket was "She's acknowledging what I'm saying" but also "She's not responding in a way that feels like she cares about this alternative opinion." Which is both a good and bad thing. The reason I consider her null rather than a hard scum or a hard towntell was because I couldn't really tell what was going on.
In addition:when I refer to tae, I actually wrote that entire thing from memory. I was trying to sort out what I remembered before I went back and read the game, to see if it held up. My impression of tae was literally "they're pretty towny."
And finally @Geoni. I have been playing this game based on a series of assumptions, which is the part where I struggle with your reads. Your analysis of the Jacob death didn't talk about the people who voted Jacob. It could've been a sentence as simple as "I don't believe anyone who voted Jacob was mafia" which I may have, but doubt I missed.
Secondly, you can't say that "it will come up" if you were willing to bring up the potential points at all. You already started the line of thought so I asked you to finish it. I guess the problem I had with that was that I'm more than happy with an analysis that goes with "if trundle is town" but the whole thing wasn't very cohesive. I don't... have a problem with that though. It's impossible to be cohesive if you're just speaking through things as you think, which is how I play as a player. Rather than treat it as an issue, I was asking you for more elaboration on a read you barely talked about.
Yes. Jarring as you'll find that. I'm probably wrong about at least one (or not idk) but my vote analysis in combination with overall reads keep them all as minor townleans in the least.
Thank you. That's basically what I wanted the most out of your vote analysis.
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Oh lastly. I said it already but my post was mostly sorting out my thoughts. I think I definitely convoluted things that I consider "bad" and things that I just consider "scummy" but inherently they're the same thing in my mind. It's a lot easier for me to sort out my thoughts once I start typing them out so.
I mean if I'm wrong about townleaning anyone who voted Jacob it's Evan and he's in really really deep or tae who is the weakest of my townleans among the Jacob voters but it's just not where I'm at with them yet?
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Shawo which lost are you referring to that you're saying I denied outright?
Also I did talk about Jacob voters in my vote analysis. I've had to repeat that so maybe you should reread it?
Once we get through night, we'll understand mafia KP and also a little bit about what blue roles are active in this game. EoD interactions will play a pretty big role in what happens beginning of D2. Seeing how people were interacting and being able to pick stuff out from this.
