Mafia TBT Mafia V: There and Back Again [Game Over/Town Win]

[Superpenguin]

May I ask why no one is willing to take a risk on Minties or Justin?

Justin wants the Serial Killer out. This can either be Mafia motivated or Town motivated. On top of that, KarlaKGB has tried to clear him from his list of potential Mafia that helped remove Dolby from the game. On top of THAT Justin has never replied to that or made a comment. He has remained neutral and focused on River.

Essentially having River in the game will force the Mafia to waste 1 KP on her or 1 roleblock on her every night. This is what will benefit Town, as it will allow our Detectives + Doctors + Vigilantes to get to work. If they choose not to, then River's shot will go through. Tom has said that he has a long list of blue roles in his possession. This greatly reduces the numbers of "grey players" and gives us a lead to work with.

River has made it clear that she will be a roadblock for the Mafia. Why not let the Mafia deal with her? They will deal with her because she removed the Godfather from the game. They have to remove her from the game before we find their roleblockers. She is not obliged to shoot every night.

River is being told by others who to shoot, though. She can easily be guided in the wrong direction. Why would mafia want her dead? The chance of her hitting them compared to hitting Town are very slim. Karla was just a lucky shot, tbh. Really any serial killer would want Karla out first because he would lead either side to taking out everyone else.

 

[Mary]

You probably missed this:

That would account or it, yup.

 

[Jeremy]

One reason to go for one of the mafia suspects over the serial killer is because we will know more about other peoples' roles once we find out what their role was. For example, if Blu Rose or beary are lynched and are found to be mafia, we can look more closely at their allies, their allegations towards others, etc.

 

[FanousOnTheLoose]

Another flaw in the plan: How can we communicate with River who to kill? by PM? That's only one person, who would we even trust with that power. For all we know they could tell River to kill someone that we don't want dead.
I'm with Justin and Nick lets rid the town of the SK while we are confused now because later on down the line other people will be a better lynch than SK.

 

[Trent the Paladin]

"the enemy of my enemy is my friend"
River can swing either way. Who's to say that mafia doesn't roleblock River and then River kills a townie? And with their being a lot more town then mafia this is a very likely case. Leaving River alive will mostly only aid mafia.

And leaving distractions alive only aids mafia, your point? Kayla has a point, Mafia will probably kill River dead tonight. She's as much of a threat to them as she is to us. You guys say use Vig shots to kill distractions, I say that's a waste. We're better off saving Vig shots to kill confirmed mafia than we are distractions.

 

[Keen]

Guys, back off beary a little, this is simply a repeat of game 2. Attacking her and putting her on tilt isn't going to help pin her role down.

I'm looking at the votelist



Now, look at this influx of votes in the final hour. I am confident that at least two out of those highlighted players are Mafia. Pretty sure Mafia aren't brave enough to throw in the final vote, or even the second last vote. However, the continuation of votes even after the threshold was reached shows that people simply aren't paying attention to the vote count. I assume we can use votes cast after the threshold as evidence, even if the votes technically didn't count.
With that in mind, we have Blu Rose, You and Jeremy who continued to throw votes in, on a very easy bandwagon to jump on. My list of names to look at are therefore
BellBringerGreen
Beary509
Tom
SirGanatar
Justin
Prin
Blu Rose
You
Jeremy

Yep, it's a big list, but we can trim it a little.
I'm going to remove Justin first, because he's an experienced player and is likely to be tracking the vote counts quite closely and won't want to put the second last nail in Dolby's coffin if he was scum. We also did discuss this before, so the idea to lynch Dolby was always on his mind.

Beary is already on everyone's s***list, she's the easiest frame of Mafia's life. Checking her is a waste.

Most of the people (plus Blu Rose) who voted before the threshold did post reasons (of varying strengths) for their votes, but You and Jeremy didn't explain their votes in the thread, and threw in their vote almost as an afterthought. Both players are new and have not been that invested in the game so far, so we really have no behavioural information to go on there. Keep in mind what I posted above though, regarding an easy wagon to hop on.

Tom posted no reason for his vote, later justifying it with Dolby's lack of defence.

Minor thing to note in Ganatar's lynch reason:

Many will know that I view a half-hearted vote with some suspicion.

Anyway, tl;dr we should focus on that list of people and clear/condemn them asap, through checks, behavioural analysis and even vig shots on some of scummier-looking lurkers. I don't want a near-repeat of Game III where lynn and Horus were both chronically inactive scum and made it into the late game, leaving town with little information to judge them on.

- - - Post Merge - - -


Well let's objectively compare the setup in this game with the setup of game III. No elected roles, which really matters little. The core principles of not just trusting people remain intact, regardless of whether there's a Mayor or not. In this game, as with game III, there are a lot of disruptive roles. The lesson people should have taken away from game III is not that town needs a plan (there's no way to come up with a foolproof plan in such a setup), it's that town needs to get discussion going around a plan, and derive information from how people contribute and respond to such a plan. It's not the plan itself that is useful, it's the planning stage.

Also yes, I've been wasting my life away on Rust

Can we look at this where Karla pin points Justin then quickly dispells him?
It could be a tactic where Karla wanted to slightly accuse Justin because he knew Justin was mafia but then erase any suspicion on him to make it look like hes innocent.

With Justin being soley focused on me, why? If everyone else has this grand plan for me, then what is the harm? Unless Justin is scared of being hit because he will turn up red.

 

[Superpenguin]

May I ask why no one is willing to take a risk on Minties or Justin?

I don't see the appeal of lynching Minties, personally.
Obviously there are some suspicions on Justin for wanting to get River out, but really, we don't know who to lynch and we have a confirmed Serial Killer. I think there is a clear choice.

Karla is not stupid. He would not give away his teammates that easily. If anything, I bet he would purposely throw that kind of thing into his posts Day 1 to throw you off, knowing that he would likely die earlier in the game rather than later.

But how many of us really thought Karla would be dying Night One? I surely didn't expect that to happen, and I doubt Karla would've thought he would die that soon either. While some of what he said may not mean anything, others may have been attempts to conceal mafia members. Also, what Kayla said earlier about what Karla was doing being a possible early building of sacrificing one of his own teammates.

- - - Post Merge - - -

One reason to go for one of the mafia suspects over the serial killer is because we will know more about other peoples' roles once we find out what their role was. For example, if Blu Rose or beary are lynched and are found to be mafia, we can look more closely at their allies, their allegations towards others, etc.

Because we shouldn't use lynches like this in Kayla's eyes.

 

[FanousOnTheLoose]

And leaving distractions alive only aids mafia, your point? Kayla has a point, Mafia will probably kill River dead tonight. She's as much of a threat to them as she is to us. You guys say use Vig shots to kill distractions, I say that's a waste. We're better off saving Vig shots to kill confirmed mafia than we are distractions.

My point being that the distractions (beary, blue and prin) can't kill us, but River can. She's a bigger threat to us than mafia because there are more town than there are Mafia.
Who do you suggest lynching then Tom?

 

[Superpenguin]

And leaving distractions alive only aids mafia, your point? Kayla has a point, Mafia will probably kill River dead tonight. She's as much of a threat to them as she is to us. You guys say use Vig shots to kill distractions, I say that's a waste. We're better off saving Vig shots to kill confirmed mafia than we are distractions.

We all keep calling those three distractions. That basically implies they are Town, so why do we want them dead. Instead of killing them, how about we ignore them?

 

[Mary]

Karla: "So checking her [Beary] would be a waste.
There it is again, 'waste.'

 

[Justin]

Another flaw in the plan: How can we communicate with River who to kill? by PM? That's only one person, who would we even trust with that power. For all we know they could tell River to kill someone that we don't want dead.
I'm with Justin and Nick lets rid the town of the SK while we are confused now because later on down the line other people will be a better lynch than SK.

This is something I want to point out. It has been said over and over that if we keep the SK alive, than we will have control of her and decide what kills she sends to benefit us. But who is sending those orders? Most likely iLoveYou or Tom based on how things have played out . So I ask everyone in support of keeping River this: Do you trust iLoveYou and Tom? Do you believe that neither of them are Mafia who will steer River's kills to their advantage. Because if one of them is Mafia, then you are effectively giving the Mafia 1 extra KP using the SK. Keep that in mind.

 

[Jeremy]

Karla: "So checking her [Beary] would be a waste.
There it is again, 'waste.'

That's pretty interesting considering she was giving off suspicious vibes even that early in the game. So why would he say that? Unless he was just trying to fill up his post with nonsense to confuse us.

 

[Justin]

Adding to my post, that is why keeping the SK around is dangerous. The SK does not care which team they help at the moment, they only need to kill players at this stage of the game. They will side with either town or mafia, or both. It does not matter to them.

 

[Mary]

I say kill the SK. It's just one less potential threat for us to worry about. I don't think they would cooperate willingly, knowing that as soon as we're done we will kill them.

 

[Jeremy]

As far as I can see, it's literally impossible for her to win now. So she will probably just side with whoever she likes better.

 

[iLoveYou]

Because we shouldn't use lynches like this in Kayla's eyes.

I knew someone would bring this up.

What I meant on Day One was not use those kind of lynches on a player like me. I will contribute to the thread. I am dedicated to Mafia. I will get people to talk. That's not a player you randomly want to lynch. Suspicious as they may be, there are other ways to deal with players like me.

I am okay with doing this on someone like Justin or Minties, because they are only posting to a certain extent (remaining too neutral). I've already explained why on Justin.

For Minties: KarlaKGB pretty much cleared the top of the Dolby voting list. The top include: Kuma, Oath2Order, FanousOnTheLoose, Minties and Superpenguin. This is generally a very pro-town thing to do .. except when you are Mafia posting like that. Essentially, he could have gotten another team mate to vote early to avoid being called out later since they knew Dolby was going to die Town. Any Mafia player could be amongst those 5 names and obviously some of them can be Town too. Why did they choose Dolby? To get Town going in one direction & not randomly start yelling names.

Blu Rose, Beary509 & Prin are a problem that need to be taken care of either today through lynching (if the Town really wish to use a majority on them) or tonight through Vigilante / Serial Killer shots. They have to be broken up. It has to be done because things from their PM have lined up with Mafia's play on Night One. It can either be a coincidence or that they are in contact with a red player. This is what makes using a lynch like that on them, better suited.

- - - Post Merge - - -

@ Justin: I was inspected by a Detective. Since the Godfather is dead, my inspection is 100% pure. Also, if Tom were Mafia he'd probably just roleblock & kill River instead of letting her shoot at KarlaKGB.

I don't know who the Detective is, because I obviously talk a lot. So basically I'm being told information from an outside source.

 

[Jeremy]

I am dedicated to Mafia.

I think I misunderstood what you meant by this at first, ha.

 

[FanousOnTheLoose]

4 lynch candidates for day 2. awesome.
which is the best for us as town?
Prin
Blu
Beary
River

Can we get a pros and cons list going or something? Although SuperPenguin makes a good point saying we can just ignore the first 3 names. I down to lynch River tonight and save the other 3 for a Day 3 lynch.

 

[Superpenguin]

For Minties: KarlaKGB pretty much cleared the top of the Dolby voting list. The top include: Kuma, Oath2Order, FanousOnTheLoose, Minties and Superpenguin. This is generally a very pro-town thing to do .. except when you are Mafia posting like that. Essentially, he could have gotten another team mate to vote early to avoid being called out later since they knew Dolby was going to die Town. Any Mafia player could be amongst those 5 names and obviously some of them can be Town too. Why did they choose Dolby? To get Town going in one direction & not randomly start yelling names.

So out of those five people, you decided to single out Minties, because...? This idea can basically be applied to any of the people on that list. Even if you are going for the players that seem neutral, most of those players you listed are neutral up to this point.

 

[Keen]

Actually.

If you look back through posts we know both of Tom and Kaylas roles.
If Tom was mafia, wouldn't there be a blue bloodbath last night since he knows a lot of blue roles, which I believe due to him knowing who inspected Kayla last night.

I came up with killing Karla on my own because I knew something was off with his playstyle.

I actually went to Tom and wanted to work with him and only him, playing for whatever side he was playing for and he claimed town. I was hoping for the mafia side but that wasn't the case.

Go ahead and lynch me if you want, I was only trying to help.

You guys aren't even paying attention to evidence presented to people who are very likely to be mafia