The Master of Disguise

[Venn]

I got none of them right, and I just needed 1 gg to afford the spectral preserves... T_T
You really did fool me, Master of Disguise. Well played.
Here's to hoping for a community fave somewhere.

SAME, just needed one more!

 

[.: Meri :.]

I was 4/13 overall—which, especially considering the odds for each round were 1/5, I'm quite happy with! ^^ This was a lot of fun; thanks for hosting!

 

[zarf]

YESSSSS viking man ily!! Glad I got this final round correct. Thanks for hosting Chris!

 

[Foreverfox]

I got none of them right, and I just needed 1 gg to afford the spectral preserves... T_T
You really did fool me, Master of Disguise. Well played.
Here's to hoping for a community fave somewhere.

That was me before this round. I’d gotten none of them right and needed 1 gg to afford a ghastly egg.

 

[Dinosaurz]

I’m pretty happy with finishing at 3/13! I think it could have been much worse, and I ended up ahead! Thanks for hosting!

Also, here were my guesses!

Spoiler

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Jesus Christ your rounds are ordered so well I just type the most random **** as the thread title and let Chris deal with it

 

[That Marshal Fangirl]

Jesus Christ your rounds are ordered so well I just type the most random **** as the thread title and let Chris deal with it

I’m the same as S.J., these are my Witch’s Quest submissions from the Fair for context lmao

Spoiler

 

[Dim]

Glad I skipped this one. Would have gotten it wrong again

 

[Foreverfox]

Glad I skipped this one. Would have gotten it wrong again

I skipped a couple myself after so many unlucky rounds.

 

[Rio_]

Jesus Christ your rounds are ordered so well I just type the most random **** as the thread title and let Chris deal with it

Don’t worry, we can be in the random gang together:

Spoiler

 

[Captain Jigglypuff]

I skipped a couple myself after so many unlucky rounds.

The one round where I KNEW who it was, I couldn’t play because I didn’t have enough Spirit Energy. That made me angry.

 

[Halloqueen]

Finally got another one correct and finish 2/13 (or 2/11 if I don't include the 2 rounds I forgot to enter). Nice to finish with a win.

Thank you, Nan and Vic.

 

[Dinosaurz]

Don’t worry, we can be in the random gang together:

Spoiler

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MY PEOPLE!!!

Spoiler

 

[digimon]

anyone else not get a single one right? (i missed a round because i forgot to enter but I still would have been wrong if i submitted my guess lol)

 

[LoveGraceMarie]

I got one right, with Goldie, who has been a villager of mine since I started playing new leaf when it first came out. If I could get any right I’m glad it was that one

 

[~Kilza~]

Ended on an 10 incorrect guesses streak. Went from 2/3 to 2/13 in a hurry.

Spoiler: My guesses

It is a shame, since my strategy for round 8 onward was to just pick the character in the 4 slot, since if things are equally random (20% chance of picking a card), the odds that 4 is not picked would get lower with each successive round. It's been a few years, but I'm pretty sure you're able to use a Bernoulli trial for this to calculate the odds (where the 4th card is a success, the rest are failures). So the odds of there being a character in the 4 slot chosen once in 6 tries (39.3%) is higher than a character in the 4 slot being chosen no times in 6 tries (26.2%). Unfortunately, I got owned since the cards hate probability and Lionel was the only 4 character who got picked.

 

[Firesquids]

I ended up with 3/13 which was actually better than my test run where I only got 1/13 (I used a rng and guessed numbers, I know it had no effect but it felt good to practice. )

 

[oak]

I got Nan, Azalea and Vic right so 3 out of 13 isn't so bad.

 

[Aerith]

I got 3 right, and missed the first round, so 3/12 is alright by me. I honestly expected more but now I know for the future, if I pick my favorite, it's probably going to lose lmao

 

[Aquilla]

This has been a very humbling experience. I now know that my gut feeling is absolute trash. Got 2/13 - I only played every other day though because I was sad

 

[BungoTheElf]

Out of the 5 I participated in, I got 4/5, so not bad
I probably should have entered more though lol I just kept forgetting

Spoiler: guesses