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The Master of Disguise

I was 4/13 overall—which, especially considering the odds for each round were 1/5, I'm quite happy with! ^^ This was a lot of fun; thanks for hosting!
 
jadetine said:
I got none of them right, and I just needed 1 gg to afford the spectral preserves... T_T
You really did fool me, Master of Disguise. Well played.
Here's to hoping for a community fave somewhere. 🙏
Click to expand...
That was me before this round. I’d gotten none of them right and needed 1 gg to afford a ghastly egg.
 
S.J. said:
I’m pretty happy with finishing at 3/13! I think it could have been much worse, and I ended up ahead! Thanks for hosting! 🎉✨

Also, here were my guesses!
View attachment 468087
View attachment 468088
Click to expand...
Jesus Christ your rounds are ordered so well I just type the most random **** as the thread title and let Chris deal with it
 
Dinosaurz said:
Jesus Christ your rounds are ordered so well I just type the most random **** as the thread title and let Chris deal with it
Click to expand...
I’m the same as S.J., these are my Witch’s Quest submissions from the Fair for context lmao

W6IURsH.png
 
Glad I skipped this one. Would have gotten it wrong again 😂
 
Finally got another one correct and finish 2/13 (or 2/11 if I don't include the 2 rounds I forgot to enter). Nice to finish with a win.

Thank you, Nan and Vic.
 
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anyone else not get a single one right? 🥲 (i missed a round because i forgot to enter but I still would have been wrong if i submitted my guess lol)
 
I got one right, with Goldie, who has been a villager of mine since I started playing new leaf when it first came out. If I could get any right I’m glad it was that one 😊
 
Ended on an 10 incorrect guesses streak. Went from 2/3 to 2/13 in a hurry. 😔

CBiROYB.png

It is a shame, since my strategy for round 8 onward was to just pick the character in the 4 slot, since if things are equally random (20% chance of picking a card), the odds that 4 is not picked would get lower with each successive round. It's been a few years, but I'm pretty sure you're able to use a Bernoulli trial for this to calculate the odds (where the 4th card is a success, the rest are failures). So the odds of there being a character in the 4 slot chosen once in 6 tries (39.3%) is higher than a character in the 4 slot being chosen no times in 6 tries (26.2%). Unfortunately, I got owned since the cards hate probability and Lionel was the only 4 character who got picked.
 
I ended up with 3/13 which was actually better than my test run where I only got 1/13 (I used a rng and guessed numbers, I know it had no effect but it felt good to practice. )
 
I got 3 right, and missed the first round, so 3/12 is alright by me. I honestly expected more but now I know for the future, if I pick my favorite, it's probably going to lose lmao
 
This has been a very humbling experience. I now know that my gut feeling is absolute trash. Got 2/13 - I only played every other day though because I was sad 😂
 
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