SAME, just needed one more!I got none of them right, and I just needed 1 gg to afford the spectral preserves... T_T
You really did fool me, Master of Disguise. Well played.
Here's to hoping for a community fave somewhere.
The Master of Disguise
- Thread starter Chris
- Start date
.: Meri :.
free palestine | trans rights are human rights
I was 4/13 overall—which, especially considering the odds for each round were 1/5, I'm quite happy with! ^^ This was a lot of fun; thanks for hosting!
Foreverfox
✨💖glow & shine💖✨
That was me before this round. I’d gotten none of them right and needed 1 gg to afford a ghastly egg.I got none of them right, and I just needed 1 gg to afford the spectral preserves... T_T
You really did fool me, Master of Disguise. Well played.
Here's to hoping for a community fave somewhere.
Jesus Christ your rounds are ordered so well I just type the most random **** as the thread title and let Chris deal with itI’m pretty happy with finishing at 3/13! I think it could have been much worse, and I ended up ahead! Thanks for hosting!
Also, here were my guesses!
That Marshal Fangirl
Blind leading the blind…
I’m the same as S.J., these are my Witch’s Quest submissions from the Fair for context lmao
Foreverfox
✨💖glow & shine💖✨
I skipped a couple myself after so many unlucky rounds.Glad I skipped this one. Would have gotten it wrong again
Captain Jigglypuff
Leader of the Jigglypuff Army
The one round where I KNEW who it was, I couldn’t play because I didn’t have enough Spirit Energy. That made me angry.I skipped a couple myself after so many unlucky rounds.
Halloqueen
Senior Member
Finally got another one correct and finish 2/13 (or 2/11 if I don't include the 2 rounds I forgot to enter). Nice to finish with a win.
Thank you, Nan and Vic.
Thank you, Nan and Vic.
Last edited:
(i missed a round because i forgot to enter but I still would have been wrong if i submitted my guess lol)
LoveGraceMarie
Fairy Rapunzel ✿
I got one right, with Goldie, who has been a villager of mine since I started playing new leaf when it first came out. If I could get any right I’m glad it was that one 
Ended on an 10 incorrect guesses streak. Went from 2/3 to 2/13 in a hurry. 
It is a shame, since my strategy for round 8 onward was to just pick the character in the 4 slot, since if things are equally random (20% chance of picking a card), the odds that 4 is not picked would get lower with each successive round. It's been a few years, but I'm pretty sure you're able to use a Bernoulli trial for this to calculate the odds (where the 4th card is a success, the rest are failures). So the odds of there being a character in the 4 slot chosen once in 6 tries (39.3%) is higher than a character in the 4 slot being chosen no times in 6 tries (26.2%). Unfortunately, I got owned since the cards hate probability and Lionel was the only 4 character who got picked.
It is a shame, since my strategy for round 8 onward was to just pick the character in the 4 slot, since if things are equally random (20% chance of picking a card), the odds that 4 is not picked would get lower with each successive round. It's been a few years, but I'm pretty sure you're able to use a Bernoulli trial for this to calculate the odds (where the 4th card is a success, the rest are failures). So the odds of there being a character in the 4 slot chosen once in 6 tries (39.3%) is higher than a character in the 4 slot being chosen no times in 6 tries (26.2%). Unfortunately, I got owned since the cards hate probability and Lionel was the only 4 character who got picked.
Firesquids
☆ Roxie of Avalar ☆
I ended up with 3/13 which was actually better than my test run where I only got 1/13 (I used a rng and guessed numbers, I know it had no effect but it felt good to practice. )
BungoTheElf
Senior Member
Out of the 5 I participated in, I got 4/5, so not bad
I probably should have entered more though lol I just kept forgetting
I probably should have entered more though lol I just kept forgetting
Similar threads
