Mafia PunchyDaHufflepuff Mafia 3: Return of the Punch - Dethy

[Dolby]

Alright, you didn't ask for it, but it's coming anyway TABLES. Also I believe that I have conclusively proven that Dedenne is inno though I would like someone to check my work

WE all know our base table at this point:

Dedenne Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Dolby Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Vanessa Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Philemon Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Dad Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia

But what if you start working under the assumption that X is town? Or Y is mafia? If we can prove that somebody is town under the assumption that somebody else is town, that's actually significant. If Dedenne can't be mafia assuming I'm town That literally clears her. Because if I'm town, she's town. If I'm mafia, she's still town since there's only one scum. Let's get down to buisiness

For my own reference: Dedenne, scum on me
Me, town on Dad
Vanessa, scum on Philemon
Philemon, town on me
Dad, town on Vanessa

The POV spoiler is optional reading. There's nothing remotely revolutionary in there. Scum assumptions is where its at. But POVS should 100% be called up tomorrow because we'll have info through town deaths

Spoiler: POVs

POVs take place assuming a person is town, and working from there with our invest results

Dedenne(This assumes Dedenne is 100% town)
Dedenne Sane Insane Paranoid Naive
Dolby Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Vanessa Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Philemon Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Dad Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia

Nothing changes here because nobody invested Dedenne

Me (This is the good one)
Dedenne Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Dolby Sane Insane Paranoid Naive
Vanessa Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Philemon Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Dad Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia

Vanessa
Dedenne Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Dolby Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Vanessa Sane Insane Paranoid Naive
Philemon Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Dad Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia

Philemon
Dedenne Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Dolby Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Vanessa Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Philemon Sane Insane Paranoid Naive
Dad Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia

Dad
Dedenne Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Dolby Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Vanessa Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Philemon Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Dad Sane Insane Paranoid Naive

Spoiler: Scum Assumptions

If Dedenne is scum
Dolby: Sane or Naive
Vanessa: Insane or Paranoid.
Philemon: Sane or Naive
Dad: Sane or Naieve

Vanessa can be insane or paranoid, but nobody else can in the scenario that Dedenne is scum. Therefore I believe Dedenne cannot be scum. Someone fact check this

If I was scum
Dedenne: Sane or Paranoid
Vanessa: Insane or Paranoid
Philemon: Insane or Naive
Dad: Sane or Naive

Only certain combinations of these are valid but I dont want to get into them

If Vanessa is scum
Dedenne: Insane or Paranoid. Only Paranoid option
Dolby: Sane or Naive
Philemon: Sane or Naive
Dad: Insane or Naive. Only insane option since Dedenne is Paranoid here.

If Philemon is scum
Dedenne: Insane or Paranoid
Dolby: Sane or Naive
Vanessa: Sane or Paranoid
Dad: Sane or Naive

If Dad is scum
Dedenne: Insane or Paranoid
Dolby: Insane or[/s] Naive
Vanessa: Insane or Paranoid
Philemon: Sane or Naive

Gonna look into optimal inspects for tonight. But I do believe that Dedenne may be clear by virtue or there being no possibilities of her being scum

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Yeah, this is all coming down to Dad v Vanessa personally. Still feel like NL is the best option, but pretty sure Dedenne is clear and Phil gave me something for me to TR him for

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Dad I see you lurking. Can you confirm that I’m correct in saying Dedenne is inno

 

[Geoni]

If I am catching up correctly Dedenne is more or less confirmed paranoid cop since nobody else has claimed a mafia result. That in combination with how he is Solvey in a townie way here leads me to townleaning him. Can't do the strikethrough thing on my phone.

PoE leaves me at Vanessa and Phil and if Vanessa is scum then that makes me either insane or naive.

I am not lynching outside these two.

 

[Dolby]

Vanessa claimed a mafia inspect on Philemon. But Dedenne can’t be scum because Vanessa is the only person who can fill the Insane and Paranoid roles in the scenario in which Dedenne is scum

I am personally going for no lynch for better info

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Also Dad if Vanessa is scum the only thing you can be is insane

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##Vote: No Lynch

Just gonna pop this in here real quick

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PoE for me is Phil>Dad>Vanessa

 

[Geoni]

I forgot no lynch was a valid option. If I am going by Phil's town tone I am getting upon reread as well as PoE I think Vanessa is scum and lynching her can solve the game but then again so can contradicting inspection results. While I am to a no lynch although I am partial to utlizing our mislynch on Vanessa because I'm feeling fairly secure about my PoE and if it is wrong that only makes solving that much easier for me.

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down for a no lynch*

 

[Dolby]

Optimal inspect for Dedenne tonight is Philemon I believe. Giving credence to the scenario where I am scum, she already inspected me, so she of course shouldn't do it again. If Vanessa is scum we get no info because then Dedenne is paranoid in 100% of scenarios, so only scum inspects are possible then and an inspect on Vanessa is useless because she'll return as red to Dedenne 100% of the time. She is 100% insane if Philemon is scum, and a green inspect on Philemon will confirm that either I'm mafia or Philemon is. Dad is a less optimal inspect because paranoid is still a possibility for Dedenne in the situation, so we could end up with less info.

So Dedenne, inspect Phil tonight no matter what. If he returns red, your options are Vanessa or Dad for scum and the other two are confirmed. If he returns Green its me or Phil, and Vanessa and Dad are confirmed

I have to choose between Vanessa and Phil, and for a matter of personal preference I'll probably go with Vanessa

Vanessa, if inno, should choose between me and Dad to inspect. If a green occurs on either of us, either me or Dad is scum or she's lying her ass off

Phil should inspect Dad tonight (not 100% sure on this one, there are multiple routes to this)

Dad should inspect, I honestly don't know. I kinda want to say Dedenne here, but he has nothing similar to a optimal path

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I forgot no lynch was a valid option. If I am going by Phil's town tone I am getting upon reread as well as PoE I think Vanessa is scum and lynching her can solve the game but then again so can contradicting inspection results. While I am to a no lynch although I am partial to utlizing our mislynch on Vanessa because I'm feeling fairly secure about my PoE and if it is wrong that only makes solving that much easier for me.

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down for a no lynch*

Yeah, Vanessa is leagues and bounds ahead for me in sus to. But we technically have four unconfirmeds, and I recognize that you do understand that the hammer falls on you after her, but I feel like we can increase our odds of winning by staying alive

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Yeah, Dad should invest Dedenne here. That's the best route

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I just went through the scenarios and Vanessa can't be sane cop. The only scenario in which this happens (when Phile is mafia), she's forced to be Paranoid by the only other paranoid possibility (Dedenne) being forced to be insane

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I can't be insane either because in the one scenario in which I am (Dad is scum) Philemon's saneness forces me to be naive

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Dedenne Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Dolby Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Vanessa Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Philemon Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Dad Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia

I personally know that Philemon isn't insane but w/e

 

[Geoni]

Dolby if you want to sell me on no lynch, explain how the inspect suggestions you are giving here can't possibly be taken advantage of by mafia on the next day because I am trying to figure that out. Also if everyone follows that to a T then it would guide the maf kill.

Question for everyone: why did you choose to inspect who you did on night 0? I chose Vanessa because I can read scumdolby better and I figured most inspects would be on him and myself. Mislynched Vanessa too many times for my own comfort.

I very much want to know Vanessa's answer here since mafia has to claim an inspect in this setup.

 

[Dolby]

Ok, so from my PoV specifically (leaving neutrality for a bit), I know that Dedenne and Vanessa are a insane/paranoid pairing if Vanessa is town, which means that one of them had to had invested scum if Vanessa is town. They inspected me and Philemon so holy **** Dad is suddenly clear from my PoV

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Dad, I inspected you because I thought that if I didn't die, you would, so I would know if I was not either insane or sane come D2

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Wait, nvm they aren't, Dad can be insane

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This is kinda a simplistic view, but Dedenne's the only clear we have so I've kinda been assuming maf would kill her

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Ok, I'll be frank. I just looked through my tables and there's no 100% chance of information being given out through each inspection

 

[Dolby]

Ok, actually I'm warming out to the idea of lynching Vanessa because this is my PoV right now

Dedenne Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Dolby Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Vanessa Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Philemon Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Dad Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia

In the neutral chart Dedenne could be sane and Phil insane

But I don't really know why I discredited this, but if Vanessa is town, she and Dedenne have to be an insane/paranoid pairing, meaning me, Dad, and Philemon are Sane, Naive, Mafia.

So if Vanessa is town, and is lynched and flips town, my calculus looks like this

Dedenne Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Dolby Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Vanessa Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Philemon Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia
Dad Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia


In which case Dedenne probably dies because her inspection=death if Vanessa was paranoid. I inspect Philemon and end up with either Philemon being scum or me being naive. Philemon inspects Dad, ends up with Dad being scum, or Philemon being naive. Basically turns into my word against yours

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But in that situation we already know our alignments

When Dad is scum I'm naive and Phile's sane. I inspect Phil, he inspects Dad. I see that He ret town, he sees Dad ret scum, we lynch him

In the situation where I'm scum Phil is naive and Dad is sane: Phil invests Dad, knows he's inno. Dad may invest me

In the situation where Phil is scum we're kinda ****ed because this essentially turns into a his word against mine situation, and a 50/50. Phil needs to say what he got on who first

So not a perfect plan

 

[Geoni]

I kinda want to hear Vanessa's answer before I vote to lynch her but does day end in twoish hours or fourteenish?

 

[Philemon120]

Isn't it optimal to lynch? We get two lynches if we do, one if we don't. 4v1, NL, 3v1(MYLO). I'm down for Vanessa lynch, it's Dedenne>Dad=Dolby>Vanessa for me atm. Dropping this here, in case I'm not back by eod. ##VOTE: Vanessa

 

[Dolby]

I kinda want to hear Vanessa's answer before I vote to lynch her but does day end in twoish hours or fourteenish?

two hours ish

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Ugh

I still think no lynching is the best option. I've gone through a lot of stuff that I've decided that I will not be releasing, but in the end I would rather go through that then what's from my PoV a 50/50 if we lynch today and get it wrong. Besides, we have so many people on Vanessa and the people who are going to be on Vanessa that if I'm Sane it's GG for her tomorrow no matter what should she be scum

 

[Geoni]

If we no lynch twice in a row I think that could drive the game to an auto in the f3 even if scum tried to muck it up by nking.

#VOTE: No Lynch

 

[Dolby]

Ok, so I'm looking at the alignment chart and the more I think about it we've kinda backed ourselves into a corner here. The only person we're willing to lynch today is Vanessa, and if we leave her alive she's likely to become confirmed, but this is our potential table tomorrow. (Of note is that Vanessa can ONLY kill Dad and Phil). If Dad dies that's a dead giveaway to Vanessa being scum, because Philemon is forced to kill Dedenne no matter what, and he'll be clear, so Dedenne survives if Vanessa. Bascially leaving her and me, and Philemon and Dedenne would each have a 50% chance of clearing me from suspicion from their inspection results tomorrow, making it a 75% chance dead Vanessa the next day if she's scum

The table obtained from leaving her alive and she's town is not at all impressive

Dedenne Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia I know that Dedenne isn't sane but w/e. But no chance of getting info from her because she'll probably be dead
Dolby Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia. I'll get inno and no new info from inspecting her, because I'm not insane
Vanessa Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia Vanessa has no chance to get evil
Philemon Sane Insane Paranoid Naive Mafia Phile will be known to not be insane, but this comes down to the same tree we had earlier
Dad Sane Insane(100%) Paranoid Naive Mafia

Yeah this basically comes down to the same tree we had earlier, and instead of 2 big targets(Vanessa and Dad rn) and 2 small ones (me and Phil) with two lynches, we'll end up with 2 big targets with one lynch

Basically, the only benefits I can see to leaving her alive is it might allow me to totally clear myself, and I prefer the two lynches honestly. But damn, was inspecting Phile "unlucky"

Now I've looked at info. I'm going to look at the kill prospects for dad phil and Vanessa

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If we no lynch twice in a row I think that could drive the game to an auto in the f3 even if scum tried to muck it up by nking.

#VOTE: No Lynch

Yeah, thats what I'm trying to figure out

 

[N e s s]

30 minutes left in day.

 

[Philemon120]

Looking at that post, I see 0 reason not to lynch Vanessa. We have an ML, we don't the next day. We're losing lynch info to gain what, exactly?

 

[Dolby]

Looking at that post, I see 0 reason not to lynch Vanessa. We have an ML, we don't the next day. We're losing lynch info to gain what, exactly?

Because if we're wrong we have no way of knowing which one of us is sane and which is naive since Dedenne will be killed tonight probably if we ML Vanessa, making tomorrow 33% town win, or 50% if Dad keeps sheeping me

Anyway, looking at the analysis, optimal scum play tomorrow leads to Vanessa being cleared, or being proven scum in multiple ways. This leads to two suspects D2. I'm not 100% sure that it's auto, but some scenarios are

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There's a roughly 50% chance of there being auto for both Dad and Phil being mafia, assuming optimal scum and town play

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I think anyway

 

[Philemon120]

Alright then, if that's the best play scum can make I'll follow your lead. ##UNVOTE: Vanessa

So I guess we just wait for tomorrow's results?

 

[Dolby]

100% chance of town auto if Vanessa is scum
75% chance of town auto if Philemon is scum
Dad's tree is more complicated because he has more options. Don't have it rn

 

[N e s s]

NEIN JUAN​

No was lynched. Rip no.

12 hours to send in night actions, but since most people are dead it might be extended.

 

[Geoni]

Alright then, if that's the best play scum can make I'll follow your lead. ##UNVOTE: Vanessa

So I guess we just wait for tomorrow's results?

I wouldn't mind hearing more from Vanessa but after rereading, follow Dolby's recommendations here because I doublechecked his work and the chances for town auto he listed will come about if his recommendations are followed. But I will add that I am right that we should also no lynch tomorrow unless a specific situation comes about.