Mafia TBT Mafia: Attack on Titan - [Game Over/Town Wins]

[oath2order]

lol **** you
you're just mad because you were replaced in this game as scum

No.

 

[wild blue yonder]

I'm here (slept in) and working on catching up, but have a question - Who is/what happened to Myuchuu? I don't see them on the playerlist

 

[Heyden]

I'm here (slept in) and working on catching up, but have a question - Who is/what happened to Myuchuu? I don't see them on the playerlist

Dolby replaced them
Dolby was inspected by Trundl apparently he returned town

 

[Curry]

Yolo. I promised a post and I also want to show effort that I just haven't given to this game yet, so here's a good post I think. I'm sorry I haven't been so into this game guys.

One of my favorite pieces of advice I got while playing Trump was to make my own reads. Your reads shouldn't be piggybacking off someone else and I will be saying some controversial stuff in this post.

Anyways, I'm going to theorize on who I think is scum, what roles are in play, and why I think they are scum. So let's begin! To start, I believe there were 5 mafia to start and that every mafia role is in play. These kills just seem so OFF to me. Ashton, Kat, Jacob, and Crys? I'm so confused why these people were killed when people like Trundle claimed JoAT, entropy led a lynch on their strongarm Day 1, etc. My theories are that the mafia are trying to play mind games and I think we may be WAY too trusting of some of the people are very town locked to a lot of players. So anyways, like I said, I believe all 5 roles are in play, 1 is dead and the other 4 are out there hiding.

I think the Godfather is someone with mild experience who knows a decent amount about scum tactics but the Doctor/Roleblocker has more scum experience and tactic planning than them. The people I would put in the list for potential Godfather are Chrystina or Oath. Chrystina's reason for susing me was entirely wrong lol. She claims I hadn't talked about any of the deaths that happened when I clearly had and I even linked the posts to her. She also said I was following my meta, to then turn around and say I wasn't with no reasoning as to why the change of heart unless it was for the reason stated above. Ayaya was already a bit sus to others (a null for me since I wasn't really paying attention), and Oath joining and immediately joining the Daniel vote citing his "slip" as his reasoning for the vote when he himself called it not a slip directly after threw up red flags for me. Sataric is a possibility, but I need to analyze him more first since I haven't yet.

Tom was the Strongarm, so that's self explanatory. However some of the stuff he said, even the joke stuff makes me theorize on the others in this list. Laugh all you want, I think the Rolling In the Deep video was a sign, someone who got Tom lynched bused him.

The Roleblocker and Doctor are an interesting case to me. I'm almost certain one of them is a veteran who the vast majority of players are town reading, and one of them is a newer player (not necessarily a noob though it can be) who is being coached by the rest of the mafia team. Which one is which though I can't figure out. Regardless, I'm believing Tardis now that he shot Cad and that Cad was protected, but no Town Doctor would heal Cad in my mind, so it must have been a Mafia Doc. Cad was one of the highest scum reads yesterday and barely got away not being lynched. It shouldn't surprise the mafia team with two Vig claims out in the open (whether both are true or not), one of them would fire at Cad. Therefore one of their scum mates won't die over night but she's an easy bus for Day 3 which I will mention below. For the newer player in this list, I think it's between Kevinnn or taesaek.

As for the experienced player, this is where it gets controversial and where I'm probably going to get torn to shreds. I think it's actually entropy. I smell a Xenoblade Xine here. I know people here are going to use the argument, "well she lynched Tom Day 1! Why would she lynch her own strongarm?!" and to that I say: what better way to convince everyone you're town that to sheep on a very good role for your team? I'm in the belief that the mafia thought they could win without their strongarm and used Tom as a sacrifice to town lock entropy. People seem to be forgetting her and Chrystina asked us to sheep them to a Daniel lynch too, and looked what Daniel flipped as. Entropy herself confirmed today that she was healed neither night 1 or night 2 and didn't get saved. So what's mafia waiting for to kill her? They got their strongarm lynched on the first day, why let her live? What sense does killing people like Kat and Jacob have when they could killl someone who got one of their most valuable roles lynched? The actions just don't line up. The big bad Xine never got killed until it was too late for people to question it, so if entropy is so scary and hasn't been healed, what is the mafia waiting for to kill her?

I'm almost certain that Cad is the goon. When Cad is the goon, she is such an easy bus for her team and they don't lose a power role off of it. Think about it, Cad is already sus to the vast majority of players and if she gets lynched then they may be in the clear, they would still have three members, all of which have important roles.

As for the missing actions, since no one yesterday claimed roleblocked I'm going to guess it was either Kat or Jacob. They can't claim roleblocked if they aren't alive. If Trundle said he was going to investigate on N1, the mafia may not have cared enough to roleblock that action but instead took precautions when killing one of their night targets. That still doesn't make sense to me why those two were the kill targets and not our JoAT or the one who got the strongarm lynched. There's mind games going on here. None of the 4 night kills make sense to me and I really think the mafia is trying to throw us off.

If I HAD to pick a remaining 4 mafia members right here on the spot, it would be Chrystina, entropy, Kevinnn and Caddberry. Sorry, but I'm not just going to buy into the top scum reads of every player, cause I'm smelling a Xenoblade all over again. Tom is a painful sacrifice, but a VERY convincing one. Remember that people sheeped entropy Day 2 to get Daniel, our Vet, lynched. One scum, and potentially one of the most important scum at that, may be down, but I feel like something is off and we're half steered wrong.

As for town reads, I'm almost certain Dolby is town. Dolby has pushed many different people and hasn't had tunnel vision. He's bring valid reasoning to the table and especially against me he elaborated more than "you aren't talking, your meta doesn't line up!" as well as Trundle's invest on him and him checking out, I'm quite confident that Dolby is town.

Bring on the scum accusations.

 

[Sataric]

As I said earlier, you used me to forward your push against Trundle, just like in The Siren's Call when you used Karla to forward your push against Superpenguin.

This is partly true. You feeling the same way as me about him made me feel more confident in my reads. Is that really so strange? I have participated in something like 17 different games here on TBT and just because I did something remotely similar ONCE in a game when I was scum doesn't exactly make this "my meta".

This is just wrong, one, I doubt that mafia were given safeclaims this game tbh, two, there is no reason that Tardis would claim a directly testable role when they could have claimed detective or veteran

What? That sounds incredibly baseless to me. What could you possibly know about that, if you're town? We cannot be sure there's safeclaims in the game but because so many extra names was added to the opening post, it seems super likely to me. Either that or many extra names were added to the pool so that if Mafia was to forced to claim randomly their odds of selecting a name that was already in use was smaller.

You ignore the possibility for the mafia KP crossing over with Taesaek's shot, and for your theory to work, you're ignoring that Cadbberry as scum would likely have been protected by the mafia doctor

This is 100% bull****. See post #1630.

It just doesn't really add up. Far more likely that the Mafia kills were sent in for Ashton and Crys, though I am a little bit unsure of why Ashton would have been picked off.

Now I'm honestly wondering why none of us three were killed. Maybe you were directly trying to manipulate the doc to protect us while killing unexpected targets to preserve KP

Maybe a small part of the reason you're all still alive is partly because by saying that you are all good targets for our doctors, alongside of your obvious contributions to the game, Mafia didn't want to risk sending in a kill for you since they were worried it'd fail?

Regarding Ashtot, I found him very scummy - Not going to lie. More or less everyone he was the most suspicious of in the game (Jacob, Heyden I believe, and Myself..) are people I thought were innocent, so I was deeply concerned he was trying to steer town's lynches in the wrong direction, similar to you right now. That said: The odds of you and Trundle both being scum or you being the Godfather seems increasingly more possible for each poor case you make - I had you written off as strong town but you're tunneling pretty hard and you're not normally this far off the mark, I feel. However, if you're town, if you manage to mislynch me then Scum will surely switch on you for pushing so hard on an innocent target..

You really are exaggerating your importance to the town, and I find it interesting that throughout the game you have been exaggerating your suspicion on Cadbberry

I have promised to be Entropy's torchbearer and lynch her suspects in case anything would happen to her this game. Other than that, I have never claimed to be of importance, have I? I don't want to put a target on my back.

Finally, Tardis is NOT 100% clear. How do you even reason there? The Scum team likely has 4 people left, put their KP onto Ashtot and Jacob, and Tardis could lie and say that he hit Cadbberry and Cad could lie and say she was healed. What am I missing here? I agree it'd probably be better for them not to make such a silly statement but we demanded Tardis to name whom he shot - Maybe this is the tactic they choose to go with.

All this said - Dolby, if you find me scummy, that's fine. But don't tunnel-vision on me so hard that you cannot get proper information out of my lynch, if it should ever come to that. Scum is likely absolutely thrilled you're pushing me so hard right now - You need to pay close attention to all of the little details or else my death would be in vain. We cannot afford that kind of mistake. The game started great with the lynch on Tom, but we have made little progress since - Don't muck it up.

>Inb4 Dolby was Godfather all along..

Also, I think we really ought to look into the people that were so quick to write off the possibility of their being a Roleblocker after Night one now that Trundle has forwarded that he was blocked. I bet scum were thrilled that such speculations were taking place. Also find it very interesting that Trundle was the one blocked even though Tae and Tardis also said they would be shooting someone. This could mean that they were most worried that Trundle would be the one to correctly hit a Mafia member, and further confirms that likely one of the two vigs are lying. (Because why wouldn't you block the Vig otherwise, since Trundle has multiple actions to choose from.)

 

[Chrystina]

I think the Godfather is someone with mild experience who knows a decent amount about scum tactics but the Doctor/Roleblocker has more scum experience and tactic planning than them. The people I would put in the list for potential Godfather are Chrystina or Oath. Chrystina's reason for susing me was entirely wrong lol. She claims I hadn't talked about any of the deaths that happened when I clearly had and I even linked the posts to her.

One of those quotes you provided was when day post was up, how could I have possibly known this in a will that I wrote during night.
it's funny scummy af you have yet to provide yours though.
I will admit that you did try and make sense of the Jacob and Kat kills but other then that, there's really nothing from you.

She also said I was following my meta, to then turn around and say I wasn't with no reasoning as to why the change of heart unless it was for the reason stated above.

I explained why my opinion on this changed. I took the actual time reading page through page in trump (godhelpme) and no your meta isn't matching up at all.

Tom was the Strongarm, so that's self explanatory. However some of the stuff he said, even the joke stuff makes me theorize on the others in this list. Laugh all you want, I think the Rolling In the Deep video was a sign, someone who got Tom lynched bused him.

As for the experienced player, this is where it gets controversial and where I'm probably going to get torn to shreds. I think it's actually entropy. I smell a Xenoblade Xine here. I know people here are going to use the argument, "well she lynched Tom Day 1! Why would she lynch her own strongarm?!" and to that I say: what better way to convince everyone you're town that to sheep on a very good role for your team? I'm in the belief that the mafia thought they could win without their strongarm and used Tom as a sacrifice to town lock entropy. People seem to be forgetting her and Chrystina asked us to sheep them to a Daniel lynch too, and looked what Daniel flipped as. Entropy herself confirmed today that she was healed neither night 1 or night 2 and didn't get saved. So what's mafia waiting for to kill her? They got their strongarm lynched on the first day, why let her live? What sense does killing people like Kat and Jacob have when they could killl someone who got one of their most valuable roles lynched? The actions just don't line up. The big bad Xine never got killed until it was too late for people to question it, so if entropy is so scary and hasn't been healed, what is the mafia waiting for to kill her?

I'm almost certain that Cad is the goon. When Cad is the goon, she is such an easy bus for her team and they don't lose a power role off of it. Think about it, Cad is already sus to the vast majority of players and if she gets lynched then they may be in the clear, they would still have three members, all of which have important roles.

ffs honestly. so hayden and entropy? why aren't you mentioning hayden? regardless, if mafia wanted to make themselves townlocked they would've picked a goon, NOT their strongman....
This is entirely different than Xeno because xine led a lynch OFF of their scumbuddy and onto a townie. we lynched scum day 1 and you're scum reading the ones who led it...??
amazing.
I'm not defending entropy whatsoever, but I town read her for reasons you're scum reading her and honestly if she lead a lynch on her strongman day 1, that's the worst maf play I've ever seen.
I'm not sure where you got the idea that I told town to sheep me. I just made a case on Daniel since I hadn't yet and kept saying I would, but I'm pretty sure 80% of us were sus of Daniel by then so ?? I don't get what you're trying to say there.

Although you seem to know a lot about which roles and who has what, so this kind of just confirms my scum read on you.

- - - Post Merge - - -

I shot at you

Amazing.

 

[Kirbystarship]

I'm here (slept in) and working on catching up, but have a question - Who is/what happened to Myuchuu? I don't see them on the playerlist

They got replaced.

 

[Chrystina]

lol **** you
you're just mad because you were replaced in this game as scum

Cory istg you're acting like a hostile third party right now and I'd believe it if this wasn't open set up.

- - - Post Merge - - -

broke my post merge ):

 

[Heyden]

I wish this was majority plularity.
Anyway, I'm gonna sheep Cad bc it seems like no one else really wants to change their vote, but I'm fine lynching any of the 6 I suggested anyhow

- - - Post Merge - - -

+Kevin, I skimmed over him before

 

[Dolby]

Please vote for Cad. I highly doubt that she is town, and I see no motivation for scum to protect a town cadbberry.

 

[Cory]

Please vote for Cad. I highly doubt that she is town, and I see no motivation for scum to protect a town cadbberry.

No I'm voting for oath

If he is town it's actually the second worst town I have seen in my life
First would be nightmares

 

[Heyden]

No I'm voting for oath

If he is town it's actually the second worst town I have seen in my life
First would be nightmares

and what about u

- - - Post Merge - - -

actually Trundle since ur not being RB'ed tonight, shoot Alexi again and if she lives she's scum

 

[oath2order]

and what about u

- - - Post Merge - - -

actually Trundle since ur not being RB'ed tonight, shoot Alexi again and if she lives she's scum

A+ job giving mafia an idea who not to kill

Cory piss off like honestly like cab you TRY and make a case

 

[Dolby]

This is partly true. You feeling the same way as me about him made me feel more confident in my reads. Is that really so strange? I have participated in something like 17 different games here on TBT and just because I did something remotely similar ONCE in a game when I was scum doesn't exactly make this "my meta".

You have four total games as scum on TBT, of which two were. One of them is the Siren's Call, which I already explained the similarities in play. Another, I'm a gunsmith you idiot, had only 73 posts in it counting pregame and would not be representative of your meta being a micro. As for this being representative of your scum meta

Hi guys. I share Gandalf's views on this one. Lynching an inactive player is definitely a better route to take than a no-lynch, but I'd rather we try to find someone acting suspicious before we even consider going for the reasonably safe route of getting rid of an inactive player. It's very rarely that we actually manage to get scum on Day 1 with that tactic.

This is from Battle for Mount Olympus, when you were scum. Here you piggybacked off of Gandalf, another player who at the time had a good reputation for activity. All of your teammates (with the possible exception of Crys/Bango) were the type of people who would be policy lynched. The only exception to this (Person of Interest) I recall that you had a different strategy of trying to control the thread. That may be different simply because that was a two mafia game, and your priority has to eliminate the opposing scum team first, but I have not seen you exhibit this behavior as a townie, piggybacking off of someone else's opinions. Moreover, your read on Trundle was tentative and exploritory until I advanced it

Anyways, I do not think that this is enough to go on to push for a Trundle lynch on day 1 - But I am curious if other players who have played previous games with Trundle also feel similar regarding his meta being off this game, if he's actually town.

What? That sounds incredibly baseless to me. What could you possibly know about that, if you're town? We cannot be sure there's safeclaims in the game but because so many extra names was added to the opening post, it seems super likely to me. Either that or many extra names were added to the pool so that if Mafia was to forced to claim randomly their odds of selecting a name that was already in use was smaller.

That was just my opinion (I still stand by it). But I love how you ignore why you are making a case for why vigilante is a safeclaim for the mafia and tardis is using it while their claim is directly testable

This is 100% bull****. See post #1630.

By that point, we had determined that mafia was either being detrimental towards itself or Cad was scum. You had made a complete 180 (which is justified if your town for the record) from Tardis being scum and Cadbberry being town to Cadbberry being scum. As I've already shown the town, you've been townreading Cadbberry for the last day for little reason, and thought that their noobslip was legitimate

Regarding Ashtot, I found him very scummy - Not going to lie. More or less everyone he was the most suspicious of in the game (Jacob, Heyden I believe, and Myself..) are people I thought were innocent, so I was deeply concerned he was trying to steer town's lynches in the wrong direction, similar to you right now. That said: The odds of you and Trundle both being scum or you being the Godfather seems increasingly more possible for each poor case you make - I had you written off as strong town but you're tunneling pretty hard and you're not normally this far off the mark, I feel. However, if you're town, if you manage to mislynch me then Scum will surely switch on you for pushing so hard on an innocent target..

I'm sorry, what? If I'm scum, then why did I push for a Trundle lynch on Day One. You should know by playing on the same scum team as me twice that I highly prefer not to do that. If me and Trundle were scum, that bus would be highly unnecessary as Ashtot implied that he was townreading him during night one and you were the only scum to state any suspicion on him. If I was scum, I could have directed town towards a Heyden lynch, with entropy being the only opposition. I am not tunneling. I have made cases against you, Cadbberry, I'm making one of Clam, and have had suspicions on at least half a dozen people throughout the game. You're saying that I'm tunneling because I've only made a case against you and Cadbberry today, and I haven't yet delivered on my Clam sus (which I would be making if you hadn't posted this 5 minutes before I got home).

You had a suspicion on Ashtot when he began to think that you were scum and took a swing at me for possibly manipulating him. Now you're throwing shade at me for making a case against you.

Finally, Tardis is NOT 100% clear. How do you even reason there? The Scum team likely has 4 people left, put their KP onto Ashtot and Jacob, and Tardis could lie and say that he hit Cadbberry and Cad could lie and say she was healed. What am I missing here? I agree it'd probably be better for them not to make such a silly statement but we demanded Tardis to name whom he shot - Maybe this is the tactic they choose to go with.

This is actually a good point, but it is impractical towards the mafia. A simpler explanation for a vig as scum would be tae lying about a shot crossing over. Either way, Cad is still scum, and if that happened, it was very poorly planned. It would only make sense if the rest of the scum team was sussed even more than cad. I would like to point out that they've been posting in the basement as recently as an hour ago, but not in here.

- - - Post Merge - - -

A+ job giving mafia an idea who not to kill

Cory piss off like honestly like cab you TRY and make a case

I'd like to see you try to

- - - Post Merge - - -

*Two were official

 

[wild blue yonder]

Reads:
Cory - I mean, as I'm rereading I think the tone of (#79) seems like not an interaction between partners, but I've always had a strong gut town lean on Cory. I think it initially came from (#94) in which I actually believe he is using the alignment discussion to try to get information he cares about. I think he's stylistically very casual and it makes me believe he's town and saying exactly what's on his mind. He has an interesting interaction with Tom in #436 but calling out a buddy for agreeing with your scumread but not giving you credit for it would be strange lmao. Oh god I just noticed Jacob (#914) called out Cory-Entropy as weird right before he died even though I've found their bickering very town indicative for both of them, ughh. I do believe Cory believes in his Heyden (and other) suspicion based on tone, and I don't think in context that it's scummy that he seems a bit, idk, demoralized.

Miharu - She sounds super similar to how I did in my first game (in which I was town) and so I'm really inclined to believe that she's town. Specifically, the kinds of reads she gives are very much in line with the kinds of reads I gave in my first game (helpfulness = town; inconsistencies = mafia). Her entrance post felt very genuine in terms of what she was focused on, and I think her narrative of what she's been focused on this game w/r/t Trundle+Jacob & Tardis. The way in which she gives reads late D1 seem not formulaic in their wording which seems town indicative for a brand new player. She seems excited about gamesolving during N1 ("I still have a few questions for you in my last post though, but I'll be patient since it seemed it took you a while to post this one. :< @ Tardis). Her reaction to people townreading her for her big read wall was super duper town (she seems very happy to be able to succeed at being helpful, not just being townread, and I believe the glee about scum!Tom flipping to help anchor her to the game). I think she would post less if she were mafia.

Heyden - This used to mostly be an entropy sheep read, but even without that, the way in which the wagons flowed D1 & the early interaction between him and Tom (that leads to Tom "seriously proposing him as a lynch" in #398) makes it feel less likely to me. Not that mafia don't want to manufacture early interactions between them, I just think Tom was the awkward half of it and that (#80) is a little town indicative and that the paranoia-mongering, playstyle-dissing post in #398 is not likely a bus unless Tom is the kinda person that busses obsessively.

entropy - Had a strong townread on her on D1 because I felt like their behavior was really consistent with their self-meta, and I feel like their excitement (for lack of a better word) at catching Tom was genuine, and that they would have had an easier time getting him lynched if entropy were scum (because it'd be moreso scum sanctioned). Her being wrong on Daniel is not enough to change this read and I don't feel it's pragmatic of me to pursue that line of paranoia rn - more than anything, it is a personal wake up call for me to try harder this game. I think their read on me is bad and frustrating but they don't know me, so it's maybe fair.

Dolby - I'm actually glad to know that he replaced in because how he entered the game felt strange to me. My read on him before the claimed investigation was that he seemed pro-town but that he hadn't posted enough for an actual read. I'd have actually preferred it went on someone else since I have a bit of exp with Dolby from IRC (enough to find out I was bad at reading him) and so it would have been interesting to try to be better at determining his alignment here, but focusing on him too much seems like a poor use of time because he's so statistically unlikely to be mafia at this point. Color signifies that he's likely town but I haven't, like, really been looking at him with a critical eye. Trundle is more or less the same, I found him pro-town and genuine at first, then thought because people overwhelmingly seemed to have meta-related scumreads on him that I was mistakenly anchoring my reads around him, and I now feel like the game makes sense with him being town with how Tom slipped onto him, PR bull**** aside.

shiida? Her reads post in #301 is interesting, in that it's wishy-washy meh and self-conscious, but that the claim seems to fit more coming from someone who is town and feels that way. I?ve yet to actually see mafia yolo claim VT early anywhere I?ve played. I also disliked Cad?s response to the claim enough that it made me feel like Cad-scum was mudslinging at a townie. As far as the content of the reads, I like the Tardis one (the thing about not wanting to get scumread for accidentally PR hunting seems very honest lmao and something I think scum may be reluctant to express so bluntly) and the Call me Daniel one (doesn't seem to be pushing an agenda/I don't feel like she's trying to mislynch him later but actually wants to understand him). I think the development of her opinion on Tardis outting her claim is town indicative (I believe she's genuinely trying to make sense of it).

Kevinnn - It's good to know it's his first game; wouldn't have guessed. I think he'd be easier to read if his wording wasn't so formal/stilted at times and I would really like to see a longer post from him for that reason. He has a weird response to a Trundle question in #119 but I think it takes certain confidence to deflect the question so I think it's null. In that post he shows genuine interest in evaluating Jacob-Trundle meta which I think looks good for him because it seems independently generated. Uh...I've been trying to read him but honestly his posts are so disjointed from the rest of the thread that it's like a scavenger hunt to figure out wth he's responding to when he posts. #1196 seems fair and #1288 seems a little townie as if he's kinda letting up on the formalness. I remember I asked him about his Aya townread since that was his most interesting read imo but didn't get an answer; still wondering.

Sataric is null.

I wanna believe scum!Tae wouldn't say the Ramadan thing but nightkill/role stuff makes him more null-eh for me. Other people collectively saying "he's a little different this game" but not really citing anything specific makes him hard to read. I expect behaviorally he'll always feel a little different than usual since he's said he's used to being widely townread. If anyone could behaviorally go into their thoughts on him that'd help me a lot.

Alexi is null-scum.

Tardis was ~here on my list before he claimed. Rereading D1 he looks a little more town than I remember and it's more D2 onward that bothered me; mechanically he appears to be town?

The library is closing really soon (I'm using a library pc) so I don't think I have time to explain those further :/

Curry - Really disliked her RQS stuff initially because of how overly apologetic she was about it, and she's flown impressively UTR. I actually think her reads are ok for the most part in (#532. Based on it I think she and tae are def not a team (first person to really call him out but if this is distancing then she's not even giving herself full credit here by citing any reasons). The one that bothers me is "I can never read Crys right away, so for now I'll give a null and come back to her" because the way it's phrased seems disingenuous, I guess because of how narrator-y it is, it feels like 'I am narrating what town-me would think.' I haven't seen enough to feel like I can rule out her being quiet, reasonable scum esp due to her being so mechanic focused latelyy. Tardis's reasons for her being mafia are really weaksauce and Cad pushing there now instead of, idk, Kevin or anyone makes me a lil paranoid

Aya - When I think about who in my heart I believe is the most mafia this game, it's Aya. My thinking from #464 still stands, in that I think her readposts and questions D1 were more making a show of looking helpful than actually genuine, esp due to defaulting on such boring initial scumleans. I think that she excuses herself for her initial focus on Kevinnn by starting the game with "I hope I don't focus too much on bad players" in that survey, and that the style of reaction test with that is again, more of making a show of being helpful than anything, as it's a great way to excuse yourself from really being read based on your voting behavior. As far as oath goes, I'm getting tired of post-linking but I hate the one where he's like "it's interesting that people don't suspect tae" without actually taking that further at all. Interesting in that he thinks it's unreasonable or scum indicative? Like it seems like filler content. Beyond that, he posts a lot but the substance of them doesn't change my opinion from Aya, and it's weird to have seen a couple of people reducing this entire slot to the Daniel vote, which seems null. They seem to be interested in having an active presence in the thread but I don't have a good sense of their opinions on the game at all.

Cadbberry - I've tonally disliked her since game start. Going back through D1, all she really did was push on flipped town and my townreads while defending Tom, and even mudslings Miharu after the flip. She is leaning on the "I've changed my playstyle" thing quite a bit as a defense, which doesn't have much to do with why I personally suspect her, but I think one can go into a game thinking they're going to change their town meta, roll scum, and then still frame their narrative around that, so that as an excuse doesn't do a whole lot for me. Though the context for that does matter here - like, if she gets lynched a lot as town than this looks worse than if she has a playstyle that helps her get to endgame but doesn't get listened to much. I had kinda set this read on the backburner because entropy really seemed to think she was town and that added to my fear that I just find her playstyle/way of wording things unalignment indicatively scummy. The stuff I brought up in #464 still stands but I also get bad vibes from the tone of #591 (self-conscious); I find her entropy push D1 weird in hindsight, like it's coming from a pretty robotic view of what makes town and scum (scum = "being weird" without really looking at context). Mechanically it seems like a lot of weird things would have to be the case at this point for her to be town (any doc protecting her would be antitown afaict; Ashtot actively scumread her), but that's what I've been thinking about w/r/t her independently of that.

 

[Dolby]

Wild, Ayaya was replaced by oath2order btw

 

[wild blue yonder]

I know that, I just titled it Aya since the read has more to do with her behavior than his.

 

[glow]

Yolo. I promised a post and I also want to show effort that I just haven't given to this game yet, so here's a good post I think. I'm sorry I haven't been so into this game guys.

One of my favorite pieces of advice I got while playing Trump was to make my own reads. Your reads shouldn't be piggybacking off someone else and I will be saying some controversial stuff in this post.

Anyways, I'm going to theorize on who I think is scum, what roles are in play, and why I think they are scum. So let's begin! To start, I believe there were 5 mafia to start and that every mafia role is in play. These kills just seem so OFF to me. Ashton, Kat, Jacob, and Crys? I'm so confused why these people were killed when people like Trundle claimed JoAT, entropy led a lynch on their strongarm Day 1, etc. My theories are that the mafia are trying to play mind games and I think we may be WAY too trusting of some of the people are very town locked to a lot of players. So anyways, like I said, I believe all 5 roles are in play, 1 is dead and the other 4 are out there hiding.

I think the Godfather is someone with mild experience who knows a decent amount about scum tactics but the Doctor/Roleblocker has more scum experience and tactic planning than them. The people I would put in the list for potential Godfather are Chrystina or Oath. Chrystina's reason for susing me was entirely wrong lol. She claims I hadn't talked about any of the deaths that happened when I clearly had and I even linked the posts to her. She also said I was following my meta, to then turn around and say I wasn't with no reasoning as to why the change of heart unless it was for the reason stated above. Ayaya was already a bit sus to others (a null for me since I wasn't really paying attention), and Oath joining and immediately joining the Daniel vote citing his "slip" as his reasoning for the vote when he himself called it not a slip directly after threw up red flags for me. Sataric is a possibility, but I need to analyze him more first since I haven't yet.

Tom was the Strongarm, so that's self explanatory. However some of the stuff he said, even the joke stuff makes me theorize on the others in this list. Laugh all you want, I think the Rolling In the Deep video was a sign, someone who got Tom lynched bused him.

The Roleblocker and Doctor are an interesting case to me. I'm almost certain one of them is a veteran who the vast majority of players are town reading, and one of them is a newer player (not necessarily a noob though it can be) who is being coached by the rest of the mafia team. Which one is which though I can't figure out. Regardless, I'm believing Tardis now that he shot Cad and that Cad was protected, but no Town Doctor would heal Cad in my mind, so it must have been a Mafia Doc. Cad was one of the highest scum reads yesterday and barely got away not being lynched. It shouldn't surprise the mafia team with two Vig claims out in the open (whether both are true or not), one of them would fire at Cad. Therefore one of their scum mates won't die over night but she's an easy bus for Day 3 which I will mention below. For the newer player in this list, I think it's between Kevinnn or taesaek.

As for the experienced player, this is where it gets controversial and where I'm probably going to get torn to shreds. I think it's actually entropy. I smell a Xenoblade Xine here. I know people here are going to use the argument, "well she lynched Tom Day 1! Why would she lynch her own strongarm?!" and to that I say: what better way to convince everyone you're town that to sheep on a very good role for your team? I'm in the belief that the mafia thought they could win without their strongarm and used Tom as a sacrifice to town lock entropy. People seem to be forgetting her and Chrystina asked us to sheep them to a Daniel lynch too, and looked what Daniel flipped as. Entropy herself confirmed today that she was healed neither night 1 or night 2 and didn't get saved. So what's mafia waiting for to kill her? They got their strongarm lynched on the first day, why let her live? What sense does killing people like Kat and Jacob have when they could killl someone who got one of their most valuable roles lynched? The actions just don't line up. The big bad Xine never got killed until it was too late for people to question it, so if entropy is so scary and hasn't been healed, what is the mafia waiting for to kill her?

I'm almost certain that Cad is the goon. When Cad is the goon, she is such an easy bus for her team and they don't lose a power role off of it. Think about it, Cad is already sus to the vast majority of players and if she gets lynched then they may be in the clear, they would still have three members, all of which have important roles.

As for the missing actions, since no one yesterday claimed roleblocked I'm going to guess it was either Kat or Jacob. They can't claim roleblocked if they aren't alive. If Trundle said he was going to investigate on N1, the mafia may not have cared enough to roleblock that action but instead took precautions when killing one of their night targets. That still doesn't make sense to me why those two were the kill targets and not our JoAT or the one who got the strongarm lynched. There's mind games going on here. None of the 4 night kills make sense to me and I really think the mafia is trying to throw us off.

If I HAD to pick a remaining 4 mafia members right here on the spot, it would be Chrystina, entropy, Kevinnn and Caddberry. Sorry, but I'm not just going to buy into the top scum reads of every player, cause I'm smelling a Xenoblade all over again. Tom is a painful sacrifice, but a VERY convincing one. Remember that people sheeped entropy Day 2 to get Daniel, our Vet, lynched. One scum, and potentially one of the most important scum at that, may be down, but I feel like something is off and we're half steered wrong.

As for town reads, I'm almost certain Dolby is town. Dolby has pushed many different people and hasn't had tunnel vision. He's bring valid reasoning to the table and especially against me he elaborated more than "you aren't talking, your meta doesn't line up!" as well as Trundle's invest on him and him checking out, I'm quite confident that Dolby is town.

Bring on the scum accusations.

I admire ur attempt to consider all the options, but the reason that I've been pushing ~doc on me~ since gamestart is so that I wouldn't die. it's obv that maf knows I'm a likely doc protect so yeah

so basically u sus me for not lynching scum twice in a row + not dying ok

daniels play was silly. him being vet was unfortunate but he was literally scumread by everyone, which is the opposite thing ur supposed to be doing as vet lol. he was also unconfirmable which didn't make me hesitate even a little, although looking back there was a line that tom said which I overlooked and should've realized he was town

but w/e no ragrats, him flipping town made me actually take his suspicions seriously so

 

[Kirbystarship]

Going to look back on Trundles posts and see why he was roleblocked.

 

[Heyden]

Going to look back on Trundles posts and see why he was roleblocked.

Maybe because he claimed JoaT and pushed for Alexi as scum